DAILY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 21st May 2015
Tel: +94 11 4700100 www.assetline.lk
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Snapshot - Monetary Sector
21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.
Call 6.11 6.12
Repo 5.79 5.79 -
Over Night 6.12 6.12 -
Market
Liquidity(Bn.) 122.5 123.5
Daily Money Market Movement Daily Forex Movement
21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.
01/04/2016 6.30% 6.40%
15/05/2017 6.75% 6.80%
15/08/2018 7.70% 7.75%
01/07/2019 8.03% 8.03% -
01/05/2021 8.35% 8.35% -
T-Bond selling rates T-Bill Rate Movement in Auction
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6.08
6.19
6.31
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
%
91-day 182-days 365-days
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
112114116118120122124126128
15.05.2015 18.05.2015 19.05.2015 20.05.2015 21.05.2015
%
LKR
Bn
Market Liquidity Call Repo Over Night
21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.
USD 136.12 136.06
GBP 212.42 211.82
EUR 152.18 152.39
JPY 1.13 1.10
Against USD 21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.
YUAN 6.20 6.20 -
INR 63.68 63.60
BDT 77.78 77.88
VND 21810 21810 -
USD LKR Premium 19-May-2015 18-May-2015 Chg.
1 Month 60/62 60/62 -
3 Months 160/170 160/170 -
6 Months 325/335 320/335
1 Year 640/660 640/660 -
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1,220.5 1,223.5
1,214.3 1,210.5 1,208.7
1200
1210
1220
1230
15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015
Gold – USD/Ounce
6,355.8 6,382.8
6,269.8
6,207.5 6,239.0
6100
6200
6300
6400
15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015
Copper USD/Ton
66.49 67.07
65.62 65.11
65.73
64
66
68
15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015
Brent – USD/barrel
1,812.8 1,795.1
1,749.5 1,748.8 1,735.5
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015
Aluminium USD/Ton
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Page 6 60.19 60.1
58.95 58.93
59.7
58
59
59
60
60
61
15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015
WTI - USD/barrel
408.10 411.57
401.19 393.85 394.41
380
390
400
410
420
08-04-2015 22-04-2015 28-04-2015 06-05-2015 13-05-2015
All elevation Tea Auction Average Price –LKR/Kg
53.57 53.76 53.68 53.39
55.17
52
53
54
55
56
Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Weekly Average Coconut Price – LKR/Kg
265 265 272.5 279
50
100
150
200
250
300
28-04-2015 30-04-2015 06-05-2015 08-05-2015 12-05-2015
Rubber Price - Latex Crepe No.1 – LKR/Kg
Snapshot – Commodities
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Local News Bulletin for Day
Hayleys records 32% increase in year end PAT
Hayleys PLC closed its financial year ending March 2014/15 on a high, consolidating the growth momentum
generated over past years. Read More
CB seen keeping rates steady after surprise cut
Sri Lanka’s central bank is expected to keep its key policy interest rates unchanged at record lows on Friday, a
Reuters poll showed.The central bank in April surprised markets with a 50 basis point cut to boost economic
growth. Until April, rates were steady for 14 months. Read More
Secondary market bond yields broadly steady ahead of policy announcement
The yields in the secondary bond markets were seen closing the day broadly steady yesterday, subsequent to
changing hands within a thin range on the back of considerable volumes. Read More
Fitch affirms Sanasa Development Bank at ‘BB+’/Stable
Fitch Ratings Lanka has affirmed Sanasa Development Bank PLC’s (SDB) National Long-Term Rating at
‘BB+(lka)’. The Outlook is Stable. Read More
Sri Lanka parliament to debate Treasury bond probe report
Sri Lanka's parliamentary speaker has given the nod to debate a report on a report on a controversial auction of
Treasury bonds that benefitted a firm connected to the son-in-law of the island's central bank governor. Read More
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Click to edit Master title style Global Outlook
Global News Bulletin for Day
• GBP gained against USD over robust retail sales which also ease fear over low inflation. According to ta foreign
exchange strategist at BNP Paribus, further signs of strengthening in U.K’s economy would most probably
encourage Bank of England to raise interest rates (Read more).
GBP gains on strong retail data………
• Greece will not be in a position to repay the debt amounting to USD 1.5bn to IMF on 5th June unless foreign
lenders provide more aid (Read more).
Possible default on 5th June…..
Crude oil rebounds….
• Oil price rebound on Thursday on expectation of reducing stock piles with US crude stock falling for the third
consecutive week. Further, the continuing unrest in Iraq fuels concerns over Middle Eastern supplies, while the
Purchasing Managers Index for May revealed tepid improvement in Chinese factory activity.(Read more).
Gold trend modestly…....
• Gold and copper prices trended upwards in Asia over the slight upbeat in China’s factory activity as per HSBC’s
Purchasing Managers Index (Read more).
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US T-Bills
US T-Bonds
Source: treasuries.gov
US Treasuries
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.08
0.25 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.23
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
04/05/2015 06/05/2015 08/05/2015 12/05/2015 14/05/2015 18/05/2015 20/05/2015
%
3 Months 6 Months 1 Year
0.96 1.00 1.03 1.02 0.96 1.02 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.90 0.95 1.01 0.98
1.51 1.54 1.58 1.55 1.50 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.51 1.46 1.54 1.60 1.57
2.16 2.19 2.25 2.18 2.16 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.23 2.14 2.23 2.27 2.26
2.88 2.90 2.98 2.90 2.90 3.03 3.02 3.07 3.03 2.93 3.02 3.05 3.06
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
04/05/2015 06/05/2015 08/05/2015 12/05/2015 14/05/2015 18/05/2015 20/05/2015
%
3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
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114.94
49.94
65.73
106.95
45.26
59.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
USD
/Bar
rel
Brent Oil WTI
*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015 Source: Investing.com
Violence in Yemen
Creates concern over
Middle East supplies
Output from OPEC
producers remain
strong
back
Brent Oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Fall in US Stock
piles for the third
straight week
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*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015 Source: Investing.com
back
7,150.5
6,239.0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
USD
/To
n
Copper
2,081.8
1,903.3 1,735.5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
USD
/TO
n
Aluminium
65.34
60.49
64.57
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
2-Feb-15 2-Mar-15 2-Apr-15 2-May-15
USD
/Po
un
d
Cotton
1,192.0
1,208.7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
3-Jan-2012 3-Jan-2013 3-Jan-2014 3-Jan-2015
USD
/Ou
nce
Gold
HSBC’s PMI reveal slight upbeat in Chinese factory
activity
Better than expected Chinese
factory activity assist gains
Cotton slumped as wet weather in
Texas expected to improve yield
Copper, Cotton, Gold and Aluminium
Tax removal from exports in China lead to a surge in
aluminium supplies
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*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015 Source: CBSL
back
6.08
6.19
6.31
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
%
91 days 182 days 364 days
Treasury Bill Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
LKR
Bn
Bids Received Amount Accepted Accepted/Received
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5.79
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14%
SLIBOR (1Month) Call Repo SDFR SLFR
CBSL reduced
policy rates by
50bps
Source: CBSL *Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015
back
Call and Repo Rates Movement
CBSL removed
the restriction on
access to SDF
facility
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*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015
back
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
%
LKR
Bn
Net Liquidity Call Repo SDFR SLFR
Market Liquidity
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Source: CBSL *Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015
back
114.8
128.2 131.6 136.12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1-Jan-2010 1-Jan-2011 1-Jan-2012 1-Jan-2013 1-Jan-2014 1-Jan-2015
LKR
USD
215.2 223.6
212.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
1-Jan-2010 1-Jan-2011 1-Jan-2012 1-Jan-2013 1-Jan-2014 1-Jan-2015
LKR
GBP
169.7 182.6
154.38
152.18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1-Jan-2010 1-Jan-2011 1-Jan-2012 1-Jan-2013 1-Jan-2014 1-Jan-2015
LKR
EUR
1.6988
1.3550 1.1469
1.1303
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1-Jan-2010 1-Jan-2011 1-Jan-2012 1-Jan-2013 1-Jan-2014 1-Jan-2015
LKR
JPY
LKR against USD, GBP, EUR & JPY
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Source: Investing.com
back
63.58
61.66
63.68
60
60
61
61
62
62
63
63
64
64
65
Indian Rupee
77.48
77.93
77.78
77
77
77
77
78
78
78
78
Bangladeshi Taka…
21,165.0
21,565.0
21810.0
20800
21000
21200
21400
21600
21800
22000
Vietnamese…
6.19
6.27
6.20
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.20
6.22
6.24
6.26
6.28
6.30
Chinese Yuan
Regional Currencies against USD
*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015
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Research Team
Sameera Siyabalape , CFA
(+94) 0774478524
Uthpala Indrawansha
(+94) 0778813099
Prashanthan Jeyavarman
General Manager
Dimantha Kohombanwickramage
(+94) 0773778802
Our Team
Sales Team
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(+94) 0775018604
Kasun Perera
(+94) 0772632584
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(+94) 0773544620
Hiranthi wijeratne
Dion Abeyesinghe
Disclaimer : Information collected/analyzed is from sources believed to be reliable and from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka/Government of Sri Lanka. Assetline however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute our judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. The reports and presentations given are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned here in. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors.
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Disclaimer
Disclaimer : Information collected/analyzed is from sources believed to be reliable and from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka/Government of Sri Lanka. Assetline however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute our judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. The reports and presentations given are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned here in. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors.
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