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USD to Consolidate Further Ahead of NFPs- AUD to Face RBA
Euro, Pound At Risk As Soft PMIs Set The Stage For ECB And BOE
Australian Dollar Higher As RBA Hold Rates, Less Dovish
THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing revised slightly higher to 46.8 -> Markit says manufacturing dragging on the economy -> Euro doesn’t rise with improved release
The Euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing in March was revised slightly higher according to a final release by Markit. However, the PMI is still down from an 11-month high set in January, and the PMI has continued to indicate a declining manufacturing sector since July of 2011. The PMI for Manufacturing was revised to 46.8 from a previous estimate of 46.6, but is down from 47.9 in February.
The German PMI for manufacturing declined back below the 50.0 neutral level in March, but the final estimate was revised 0.1 higher to 49.0. The France manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 44.0, and the Italy index disappointed expectations today at 44.5 for March, setting a 7-month low.
Manufacturing production contracted at the fastest pace year to date, as companies saw decreases in new business inflows, according to Markit. New export orders resumed a decline in March on lower demand from intra-Euro-zone trade. Job losses were reported in the sector for the fourteenth straight month.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.2880 tgs
1.2900/1.2920 sl 1.2850
SELL USDJPY BELOW
92.55 tgt 92.35/92.15
SL 92.85
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5180 Tgt
1.5160/1.5140 SL
1.5200
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2848
HIGH: 1.2878
LOW: 1.2825
CLOSE: 1.2848
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.18
HIGH: 93.35
LOW: 92.57
CLOSE: 93.24
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5221
HIGH: 1.5258
LOW: 1.5181
CLOSE: 1.5193
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 40(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8440
HIGH: 0.8459
LOW: 0.8425
CLOSE: 0.8452
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.7280
HIGH: 82.8000
LOW: 82.4930
CLOSE: 82.0910
USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Mar 31 23:50
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q)
High -1 1 -10
23:50
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q)
High 9 11 3
23:50
JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)
Medium -2.0% 5.0% 6.8%
23:50
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q)
Medium -8 -7 -12
23:50
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q)
Medium 6 8 4
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)
Low 1.42%
1.34%
Mon Apr 1
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
High 50.9 51.2 50.1
01:45
CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
Medium 51.6 51.6 50.4
04:39
CNY Leading Index (FEB)
Low 100.23
100.50
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)
Low -15.6%
-12.2%
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR)
Low 54.6 55.0 54.9
14:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR)
High 51.3 54.0 54.2
14:00
USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)
Medium 1.2% 1.0% -2.1%
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR)
Medium 54.5 60.0 61.5
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)
Medium 44.4
45.6
23:00
AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR)
Low 1.3%
0.3%
23:01
GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)
Low 20
13
23:50
JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)
Low 19.8%
15.0%
Tue
Apr 2 00:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)
Low 7.4%
1.1%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
01:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB)
Medium -0.7% -0.2% 0.1%
03:30
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2)
High 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
05:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR)
Low -7.5%
-6.5%
05:30
AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR)
Low 87.9
87.9
07:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR)
Medium 48.3 50.4 50.8
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)
Low 44.5 45.3 45.8
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)
Low 44.0 43.9 43.9
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)
Medium 49.0 48.9 48.9
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)
Medium 46.8 46.6 46.6
08:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P)
Medium 11.6% 11.8% 11.7%
08:30
GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB)
Medium 51.7K 53.7K 54.2K
08:30
GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB)
Medium 0.6B 0.4B 0.5B
08:30
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)
Medium 0.9B 0.4B 0.3B
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)
Medium 48.3 48.7 47.9
08:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB)
Low 3.1% 5.0% 5.8%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)
Low -0.5%
0.9%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)
Low 0.5%
-0.8%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB)
Medium 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
10:00
EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks
Low
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR P)
High
1.7% 1.8%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P)
High
1.3% 1.5%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P)
Medium
0.3% 0.8%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P)
Medium
0.4% 0.6%
13:45
USD ISM New York (MAR)
Low
58.8
14:00
USD Factory Orders (FEB)
Medium
2.9% -2.0%
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR)
Low
45.5 42.2
15:20
EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC
Low
17:00
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota
Low
17:30
USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama
Low
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR)
Low
12.04M 11.99M
21:00
USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR)
Low
15.30M 15.33M
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
Low
1.10%
23:30
USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond
Low
Wed
Apr 3 00:00
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
4.2%
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR)
Low
1.1% 1.9%
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.2% 0.5%
00:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB)
Medium
-1000M -1057M
01:00
CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)
Medium
54.5
01:45
CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR)
Medium
52.1
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)
Medium
48.0 46.8
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
1.6% 1.8%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29)
Low
7.7%
12:15
USD ADP Employment Change (MAR)
Medium
200K 198K
14:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAR)
Medium
55.6 56
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29)
Low
439K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29)
Low
2250K 3256K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29)
Low
-750K -4513K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29)
Low
-1000K -1596K
19:30
USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles
Low
21:00
USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis
Low
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR)
Medium
48.5
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)
Low
-¥975.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)
Low
-¥267.6B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)
Low
-¥490.5B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)
Low
-¥640.2B
Thu Apr 4
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)
High
0.10% 0.10%
00:30
AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
14.3% 9.9%
00:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.3% 0.9%
00:30
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB)
Low
2.5% -2.4%
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)
Low
43.5 43.6
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)
Low
41.9 41.9
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)
Medium
51.6 51.6
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F)
Medium
46.5 46.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)
Medium
46.5 46.5
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)
Medium
51.5 51.8
08:30
GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR)
Low
-$1333M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
1.4% 1.9%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.2% 0.6%
11:00
GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR)
High
375B 375B
11:00
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4)
High
0.50% 0.50%
11:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)
Low
7.0%
11:30
USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR)
Low
47.1
11:45
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4)
High
0.75% 0.75%
11:45
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4)
Medium
0.00% 0.00%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30)
Medium
353K 357K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23)
Low
3065K 3050K
12:45
USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio
Low
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29)
Low
-95
16:30
USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma
Low
21:00
USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington
Low
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR)
Low
$1258.8B
Fri Apr 5
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)
Low
7.9%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table)
Medium
05:00
JPY Leading Index (FEB P)
Medium
97.3 95
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (FEB P)
Low
91.9 91.6
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR)
Low
427.0B 430.0B
08:00
EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q)
Medium
3.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)
High
-1.2% -1.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
-0.4% 1.2%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
-1.5% -2.5%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.1% -2.5%
12:30
CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR)
High
5.0K 50.7K
12:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR)
High
7.0% 7.0%
12:30
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR)
High
199K 236K
12:30
USD Unemployment Rate (MAR)
High
7.7% 7.7%
12:30
CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR)
Medium
33.6
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
2.0% 2.1%
12:30
USD Change in Household Employment (MAR)
Medium
170
12:30
USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)
Medium
203K 246K
12:30
USD Trade Balance (FEB)
Medium
-$44.6B -$44.4B
12:30
USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)
Medium
-15K
12:30
USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR)
Medium
14.3%
12:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)
Low
0.10B -0.24B
12:30
CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)
Low
17.2
12:30
CAD Participation Rate (MAR)
Low
66.7 66.7
12:30
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR)
Low
34.5 34.5
12:30
USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)
Low
10K 14K
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR)
Medium
52.2 51.1
19:00
USD Consumer Credit (FEB)
Medium
$15.000B $16.151B
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