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DAILY I FOREX REPORT4
TH
APRIL 2013
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USD/JPY Breakout Stalls, Isthe Same in Store forGBP/USD and Gold?
Disappointing UK PMI ForConstruction Briefly DrivesPound LowerEuro Vulnerable On Soft
Inflation Data Ahead OfECB Rate DecisionEuro Runs Slightly Higher on an IMFContribution to the Cyprus Bailout
The Euro received a boost at the end of an otherwisequiet European session, on the announcement thatthe IMF will contribute 1 billion Euros to the Cyprusbailout agreement. It is unclear if the pledge is an
addition to the 10 billion Euro aid already agreedupon, or if the IMF will help contribute to that originalamount. IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she willseek board approval for the aid in early May.
The Euro rose to 1.2835 against the US Dollarfollowing the news, as the Euro had battled to stayabove the 1.2800 line earlier in the session. The1.2820 support line may continue to provide supportfrom here, and the 200 day moving average mayprovide support at 1.2882.
Before the announcement, the Euro-zone annualinflation estimate was reported at a new 2.5 year lowof 1.7%, following 1.8% inflation in February. Theestimated inflation was slightly better than anexpected 1.6% inflation level, and therefore did not
have significant impact on Euro trading.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.2840 tgs
1.2860/1.2880 sl 1.2810
SELL USDJPY BELOW
93.30 tgt 93.10/92.90
SL 93.60
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5075 Tgt
1.5055/1.5035 SL
1.5105
HEADLINES
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HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2819
HIGH: 1.2838
LOW: 1.2790
CLOSE: 1.2820
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
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HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSISOPEN: 93.34
HIGH: 93.69
LOW: 93.32
CLOSE: 93.50
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>53(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5108
HIGH: 1.5121
LOW: 1.5075
CLOSE: 1.5109
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 43(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8484
HIGH: 0.8495
LOW: 0.8469
CLOSE: 0.8484
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.9010
HIGH: 82.0650
LOW: 82.8480
CLOSE: 82.9040
USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N
Sun
Mar 3123:50
JPY Tankan LargeManufacturers Outlook(1Q)
High -1 1 -10
23:50JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook(1Q)
High 9 11 3
23:50JPY Tankan Large AllIndustry Capex (1Q)
Medium -2.0% 5.0% 6.8%
23:50JPY Tankan LargeManufacturers Index(1Q)
Medium -8 -7 -12
23:50JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index(1Q)
Medium 6 8 4
23:50JPY Loans & DiscountsCorp (YoY) (FEB)
Low 1.42% 1.34%
MonApr 1
01:00CNY ManufacturingPMI (MAR)
High 50.9 51.2 50.1
01:45CNY HSBCManufacturing PMI(MAR)
Medium 51.6 51.6 50.4
04:39
CNY Leading Index
(FEB) Low 100.23 100.50
05:00JPY Vehicle Sales(YoY) (MAR)
Low -15.6% -12.2%
12:58USD Markit US PMIFinal (MAR)
Low 54.6 55.0 54.9
14:00USD ISMManufacturing (MAR)
High 51.3 54.0 54.2
14:00USD ConstructionSpending (MoM) (FEB)
Medium 1.2% 1.0% -2.1%
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid(MAR) Medium 54.5 60.0 61.5
22:30AUD AiG Performanceof Manufacturing Index(MAR)
Medium 44.4 45.6
23:00AUD RPData-RismarkHouse PX Actual(MAR)
Low 1.3% 0.3%
23:01GBP Lloyds BusinessBarometer (MAR)
Low 20 13
23:50JPY Monetary Base(YoY) (MAR)
Low 19.8% 15.0%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
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TueApr 2
00:00NZD ANZ CommodityPrice (MAR)
Low 7.4% 1.1%
01:30JPY Labor CashEarnings (YoY) (FEB)
Medium -0.7% -0.2% 0.1%
03:30AUD Reserve Bank ofAustralia Rate Decision(APR 2)
High 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
05:30AUD RBA CommodityIndex SDR (YoY)(MAR)
Low -7.5% -6.5%
05:30AUD RBA CommodityPrice Index (MAR)
Low 87.9 87.9
07:30CHF SVME-PurchasingManagers Index (MAR)
Medium 48.3 50.4 50.8
07:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager IndexManufacturing (MAR)
Low 44.5 45.3 45.8
07:50
EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(MAR F)
Low 44.0 43.9 43.9
07:55
EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(MAR F)
Medium 49.0 48.9 48.9
08:00
EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(MAR F)
Medium 46.8 46.6 46.6
08:00EUR ItalianUnemployment Rates.a. (FEB P)
Medium 11.6% 11.8% 11.7%
08:30GBP Mortgage
Approvals (FEB)Medium 51.7K 53.7K 54.2K
08:30GBP Net ConsumerCredit (FEB)
Medium 0.6B 0.4B 0.5B
08:30GBP Net Lending Sec.on Dwellings (FEB)
Medium 0.9B 0.4B 0.3B
08:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexManufacturing (MAR)
Medium 48.3 48.7 47.9
08:30GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M
Annualised (FEB)Low 3.1% 5.0% 5.8%
08:30GBP M4 Money Supply
(MoM) (FEB)
Low -0.5% 0.9%
08:30GBP M4 Money Supply(YoY) (FEB)
Low 0.5% -0.8%
09:00EUR Euro-ZoneUnemployment Rate(FEB)
Medium 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
10:00
EUR ECB's KranjecPresents SloveniaEconomy Outlook,Banks
Low
12:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index -EU Harmonised (YoY)
High 1.7% 1.8%
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(MAR P)
12:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(YoY) (MAR P)
High 1.3% 1.5%
12:00
EUR GermanConsumer Price Index -EU Harmonised (MoM)(MAR P)
Medium 0.3% 0.8%
12:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(MoM) (MAR P)
Medium 0.4% 0.6%
13:45USD ISM New York(MAR)
Low 58.8
14:00USD Factory Orders(FEB)
Medium 2.9% -2.0%
14:00USD IBD/TIPPEconomic Optimism(APR) (APR)
Low 45.5 42.2
15:20EUR ECB's CoeureSpeaks in WashingtonDC
Low
17:00
USD Fed's
Kocherlakota Speakson Monetary Policy inNorth Dakota
Low
17:30USD Fed's LockhartSpeaks in Alabama
Low
21:00USD Domestic VehicleSales (MAR)
Low 12.04M 11.99M
21:00USD Total VehicleSales (MAR)
Low 15.30M 15.33M
23:01GBP BRC Shop PriceIndex (YoY) (MAR)
Low 1.10%
23:30
USD Fed's Evans,Lacker Speak onMonetary Policy inRichmond
Low
Wed
Apr 300:00
AUD HIA New HomeSales (MoM) (FEB)
Medium 4.2%
GBP Halifax HousePrice (3MoY) (MAR)
Low 1.1% 1.9%
GBP Halifax Plc HousePrices s.a. (MoM)(MAR)
Low 0.2% 0.5%
00:30AUD Trade Balance(Australian dollar)(FEB)
Medium -1000M -1057M
01:00CNY Non-manufacturing PMI(MAR)
Medium 54.5
01:45CNY HSBC ServicesPMI (MAR)
Medium 52.1
08:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexConstruction (MAR)
Medium 48.0 46.8
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09:00
EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Price IndexEstimate (YoY) (MAR)
Medium 1.6% 1.8%
11:00USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (MAR 29)Low 7.7%
12:15USD ADP EmploymentChange (MAR)
Medium 200K 198K
14:00USD ISM Non-ManufacutringComposite (MAR)
Medium 55.6 56
14:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (MAR29)
Low 439K
14:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (MAR29)
Low 2250K 3256K
14:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(MAR 29)
Low -750K -4513K
14:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(MAR 29)
Low -1000K -1596K
19:30USD Fed's WilliamsSpeaks on MonetaryPolicy in Los Angeles
Low
21:00USD Fed's Bullard toIntroduce Lecture in St.Louis
Low
22:30AUD AiG Performanceof Service Index (MAR)
Medium 48.5
23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(MAR 29)
Low -975.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)(MAR 29)Low -267.6B
23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(MAR 29)
Low -490.5B
23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(MAR 29)
Low -640.2B
Thu
Apr 4
JPY Bank of JapanRate Decision (APR 4)
High 0.10% 0.10%
00:30AUD BuildingApprovals (YoY) (FEB)
Medium 14.3% 9.9%
00:30AUD Retail Sales s.a.(MoM) (FEB)
Medium 0.3% 0.9%
00:30AUD BuildingApprovals (MoM) (FEB)
Low 2.5% -2.4%
07:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager IndexServices (MAR)
Low 43.5 43.6
07:50
EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (MARF)
Low 41.9 41.9
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07:55
EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (MARF)
Medium 51.6 51.6
08:00
EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Composite (MARF)
Medium 46.5 46.5
08:00
EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Services (MARF)
Medium 46.5 46.5
08:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexServices (MAR)
Medium 51.5 51.8
08:30GBP Official Reserves(Changes) (MAR)
Low -$1333M
09:00EUR Euro-ZoneProducer Price Index(YoY) (FEB)
Medium 1.4% 1.9%
09:00EUR Euro-ZoneProducer Price Index(MoM) (FEB)
Low 0.2% 0.6%
11:00 GBP BOE AssetPurchase Target (APR)
High 375B 375B
11:00GBP Bank of EnglandRate Decision (APR 4)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:30USD Challenger JobCuts (YoY) (MAR)
Low 7.0%
11:30USD RBC ConsumerOutlook Index (APR)
Low 47.1
11:45EUR European CentralBank Rate Decision(APR 4)
High 0.75% 0.75%
11:45EUR ECB DepositFacility Rate (APR 4)
Medium 0.00% 0.00%
12:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (MAR 30)
Medium 353K 357K
12:30USD Continuing Claims(MAR 23)
Low 3065K 3050K
12:45USD Fed's Evans,Lockhart Speak onMonetary Policy in Ohio
Low
14:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (MAR29)
Low -95
16:30USD Fed's GeorgeSpeaks on Economy inOklahoma
Low
21:00USD Fed's YellenSpeaks in Washington
Low
23:50JPY Official Reserve
Assets (MAR)Low $1258.8B
Fri
Apr 5
GBP New CarRegistrations (YoY)(MAR)
Low 7.9%
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05:00
JPY Bank of Japan'sMonthly EconomicReport for April (Table)
Medium
05:00JPY Leading Index(FEB P)
Medium 97.3 95
05:00JPY Coincident Index(FEB P)
Low 91.9 91.6
07:00CHF Foreign CurrencyReserves (MAR)
Low 427.0B 430.0B
08:00EUR Italian Deficit toGDP (YTD) (4Q)
Medium 3.7%
09:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (YoY) (FEB)
High -1.2% -1.3%
09:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (MoM) (FEB)
Medium -0.4% 1.2%
10:00EUR German FactoryOrders n.s.a. (YoY)(FEB)
Medium -1.5% -2.5%
10:00EUR German FactoryOrders s.a. (MoM)
(FEB)
Low 1.1% -2.5%
12:30CAD Net Change inEmployment (MAR)
High 5.0K 50.7K
12:30CAD UnemploymentRate (MAR)
High 7.0% 7.0%
12:30USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR)
High 199K 236K
12:30USD UnemploymentRate (MAR)
High 7.7% 7.7%
12:30
CAD Full Time
Employment Change(MAR)Medium 33.6
12:30USD Average HourlyEarnings All Employees(MoM) (MAR)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
12:30USD Average HourlyEarnings All Employees(YoY) (MAR)
Medium 2.0% 2.1%
12:30USD Change inHouseholdEmployment (MAR)
Medium 170
12:30USD Change in PrivatePayrolls (MAR)
Medium 203K 246K
12:30USD Trade Balance(FEB)
Medium -$44.6B -$44.4B
12:30USD Two-MonthPayroll Net Revision(MAR)
Medium -15K
12:30USD UnderemploymentRate (U6) (MAR)
Medium 14.3%
12:30CAD InternationalMerchandise Trade(Canadian dollar) (FEB)
Low 0.10B -0.24B
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12:30
CAD Part TimeEmployment Change(MAR)
Low 17.2
12:30CAD Participation Rate(MAR)
Low 66.7 66.7
12:30USD Average WeeklyHours All Employees(MAR)
Low 34.5 34.5
12:30USD Change inManufacturing Payrolls(MAR)
Low 10K 14K
14:00CAD Ivey PurchasingManagers Index s.a(MAR)
Medium 52.2 51.1
19:00USD Consumer Credit(FEB)
Medium $15.000B $16.151B
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