Danube-Black Sea Regional Projects – Catalysts for Nutrient Reduction Experiences with Setting Targets, Measuring Compliance and Results, and Scaling up Achievements in Nutrient Reduction
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
Ivan Zavadsky, UNDP/GEF Regional Programme DirectorDanube/ Black Sea
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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COOPERATION FOR POLLUTION CONTROL IN THE DANUBE – BLACK SEA REGION
» GEF Support: GEF Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership and TDA/SAP Process (1991 - 2007)
» Danube Convention and the ICPDR (1994/1998)» Black Sea Convention – BSC (1992/1994)» EU Water Framework Directive and other EU
Directives, EU Marine Strategy(2000)» DABLAS Task Force (2001)» ICPDR/BSC Memorandum of Understanding
(2001)
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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GEF Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership
Objectives Indicator Success
Adopting and implementing of new policies 100%
Implementing investment projects 100%
Capacity building of Secretariats 75%
Adopting of legal mechanisms 50 – 75%
Reinforcing international cooperation 75%
Implementing pilot projects 50%
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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INDICATORS
» Process» Strengthening Institutions» Policy / Legal
» Stress Reduction» Nutrient Reduction – investments / achievements» BAPs
» Status» N/P loads» DO in Black Sea» Ecological status
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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PROCESS INDICATORS
» Institutional Strengthening» ICPDR / BSC» DEF / Black Sea NGO Forum
» Policy / legal
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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Explicitly formulated policy objectives for water management and pollution control
012345
D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA
Explicitly formulated policy objectives for water management and pollution control,1 - insufficient, 2 - Limited, 3 - satisfactory, 4 - appropriate / complete
Programmes especially dealing with water management and pollution control
D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA
Action Programmes / National Environmental Plans Specific Programmes for Sectors Other Programmes
Programmes dealing with EU WFD Implementation
D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UAStrategy for WFD I mplementation State Environmental Policy Harmonization with WFD Expected / New law
Status of Water-Related Policy, Programmes and Action Plans in the Danube Countries
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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STRESS REDUCTION Targets
» Danube:» 22% reduction in P emissions and 33%
reduction in N emissions by 2005 cf 1996 baseline level.
» BS TDA:» To avoid exceeding nutrient loads of 1997;» To reduce nutrients loads allowing Black
Sea ecosystems to recover to conditions similar to those observed in the 1960s.
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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STRESS REDUCTION Considerations in target-setting
» Point vs. diffuse sources of nutrients;» Groundwater contribution to nutrient budget
(47% of Danube input is GW-derived);» Recent historical changes in nutrient inputs
and outputs – law of diminishing returns!» Internal loading of nutrients;» Economic influences on nutrient management
(e.g. agricultural practices).
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
1960 1970 1988 1997 2003
Tota
l N (t
onne)
.
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
1960 1970 1988 1997 2003
Tota
l P (to
nne)
.
0
40,000
80,000
1960 1970 1988 1997 2003
Tota
l N (to
nne)
.
0
30,000
60,000
1960 1970 1988 1997 2003
Tota
l P (to
nne)
.
Romania
Bulgaria
N P
STRESS REDUCTION Livestock manure
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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SUMMARY OF REDUCTIONSNutrient
Removal, t/ a Timeframe
No. of
Projects
Total
I nvestment
MUSD N P
Completed by Dec 2003 56 803 5,351 1,013
Completed in 2004 and 2005 35 475 4,552 836
Completed after 2005 (full
financed) 106 1440 >10,013 >1,839
World Bank-GEF NRIF
(implem., prep, pipeline) 14 576 5,936 443
TOTAL 211 3,294 >25,852 >4,131
Context: Emissions estimated 700kt/a (N); 70kt/a (P)
Load estimate 410 kt/a (N); 12 kt/a (P)
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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0
200
400
600
800
1948
-195
9
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
DIN
(kt
/y)
.
DIN (Q corr.) kt/y DIN kt/y Almazow
linear trend
0
200
400
600
800
100019
48-1
959
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
DIN
(kt
/y) .
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Flo
w (m
3 /s
)
DIN kt/y TNMN/Buch.Decl.DIN kt/y AlmazowDanube discharge m3linear trend
0
20
40
60
80
100
1948
-195
9
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Tota
l P
(kt
/y) .
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Flo
w (m
3 /s) .
P kt/y TNMN/Buch.Decl. P kt/y Almazow
Danube discharge m3 linear trend
0
20
40
60
80
1948
-195
9
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Tota
l P (k
t/y)
.
Total P (Q corr.) kt/y Total P kt/y Almazow
Actual loads
Flow –corrected loads
Inorganic N Total P
STATUS INDICATORSDanube loads to Black Sea
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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0
3
6
9
1960s
1983-
1990
1991-
2000
2001-
2005
Bio
mas
s (g
/m
3 )
0
20
40
60
1960s
1988
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Num
ber of Taxa
sec
2
3
4
5
1966
1972
1980
1986
1996
2002
log 10 a
bundan
ce (num
ber
/l) .
1967-2005 data set1997-2005 data setLinear (1967-2005 data set)Linear (1997-2005 data set)
Phytoplankton Zoobenthos
Zooplankton
?
Phyllophora/Fisheries
STATUS INDICATORS Ecological status of Black Sea
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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LESSONS LEARNED (1)
» Robust decisions are based on good information.
» Public perception and/or alternative drivers are critical to ensuring success.
» Present sensible targets: challenging, but not over-ambitious. Timing is crucial.
» Not the only player in town; co-operation is the lifeblood of success.
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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14%
19%
46%
6%
14% 1%
46% felt it was “only occasionally polluted in certain places”
A third of people thought it was either completely dead (14%) or the most polluted Sea in Europe (19%).
Only 6% of respondents felt it is healthier than it used to be.
Do you think the Black Sea is healthy?
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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LESSONS LEARNED (2)
» Source apportionment studies are invaluable, but the same methodology must be used by all participants.
» Over a short-intermediate timescale, P export is easier to tackle than N export.
» Point source nutrient emissions are “easier” to tackle than diffuse source emissions.
» Regional improvements in P export are due primarily to the end of state-subsidies.
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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GOOD MONITORING DATA (1)
» Collation of existing data;» Supply of monitoring equipment;» Regional workshops on methods
development and production of standardised methods manuals;
» Pilot monitoring exercises to test manuals.
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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GOOD MONITORING DATA (2)
» Analytical proficiency testing exercises;
» Research cruises to: » Improve understanding of the
eutrophication process;» Fill-in gaps left by national /
international monitoring programmes;
» Support the scientific community.
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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ACHIEVEMENTS
» Institutional» Co-operation EC/GEF» SAP developed» ICPDR funded and functional» DEF strengthened » Danube Analysis» BSC/ICPDR JTWG
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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ACHIEVEMENTS
» Environment» Reduced nutrients – upper Danube» Reduced P discharges from Danube» Reduced anoxic conditions NW Black Sea» Increased zoobenthos diversity NW Black
Sea
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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FUTURE CHALLENGES
» Achieving / maintaining mid-1990s nutrient levels – and more!
» Agriculture and CAP reform» N reduction» Improving data
Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006
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TRANSFERABLE LESSONS
» For IRBM to succeed:» Political will – countries collaborate» Legal framework - convention» Strong institution – e.g. ICPDR» Long-term support – e.g. UNDP/GEF projects