Download - Data Challenges | Angela Druckman
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The delights of data:deficiencies in the quagmire?
Angela Druckman and Tim JacksonRESOLVE
University of Surrey
Carbon Accounting Conference
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh
11 March 2009
www.carboncounting.org.uk
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Plan
• What are we trying to measure?
• What methods do we use?
• What data do we need?
• What are the problems?
• Recommendations.
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What are we trying to measure? Examples:
(a) What are the carbon footprints of different types of households?
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(b) What activities do we use our carbon for?
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(c) What real progress is being made towards reducing the carbon footprint of UK lifestyles?
The view from different perspectives:
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Accounting from different perspectives
Production Perspective• Carbon emissions attributable to UK production;• Used for reporting under Kyoto Protocol;• Territorial basis;• Includes exports, excludes imports;• National Emissions Inventory.
Consumption Perspective• Carbon emissions attributable to UK consumption;• Life-cycle approach;• Includes imports, excludes exports;• Environmental Input-Output Analysis
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UK carbon emissions: trends from different accounting perspectives
• Example of some results obtained from the Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping model (SELMA)
o Consumption perspective emissions estimated using a quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model.
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Trends in UK CO2 emissions from different accounting perspectives
Source: Druckman and Jackson 2008.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Ca
rbo
n d
iox
ide
em
iss
ion
s (
mtC
O2
)
Consumption perspective
Production perspective (according toEnvironmental Accounts)
UNFCCC reporting
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Trends in UK CO2 emissions from different accounting perspectives
Source: Druckman and Jackson 2008.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Ca
rbo
n d
iox
ide
em
iss
ion
s (
mtC
O2
)
Production perspective (according toEnvironmental Accounts)
UNFCCC reporting
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Trends in UK CO2 emissions from different accounting perspectives
Source: Druckman and Jackson 2008.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Ca
rbo
n d
iox
ide
em
iss
ion
s (
mtC
O2
)
Consumption perspective
Production perspective (according toEnvironmental Accounts)
UNFCCC reporting
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Plan
• What are we trying to measure?
• What methods do we use?
• What data do we need?
• What are the problems?
• Recommendations.
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• EIO is an economy-wide approach that is used to map carbon emissions through an economy for the purposes accounting from the consumption perspective.
• EIO is based on economic Input-Output Tables which show sales and purchases between industry sectors, and final demand consumption .
• The economic Input-Output Tables are combined with environmental data for each industry sector.
• EIO can be applied to:– resource use such as oil, water, land-use etc.– emissions such as CO2, greenhouse gases, waste etc.
Environmental Input-Output (EIO) Analysis
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Production sectors
1 2 3 n
1
2
3
n
Final demand
I
III
II
Input-Output Framework (a)
Adapted from: Moll et al 2004.
.
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Plan
• What are we trying to measure?
• What methods do we use?
• What data do we need?
• What are the problems?
• Recommendations.
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Data requirements for Environmental Input-Output Analysis (single region)
-1c = u I - A YFinal
demand
Technical coefficients:
A-Matrix
Carbon emissions attributed to final
demand
Carbon emissions per unit monetary output
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Imports and exports
• Estimating the upstream emissions due to imported goods and services presents a challenge.
• Traditionally, EIO models assumed that the technology used for producing imports was the same as domestic technology (the “Domestic Technology Assumption”).
• Much work is currently focusing on developing input-output models in which emissions due to imports are estimated with improved accuracy.
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Two-region input-output model with domestic technology assumption
Region 1YA1
u1
Region 2 A1
u1
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Quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model
Region 2 A1
u2
Region 3 A1
u3
Region 4 A1
u4
Region 5 A1
u5
Region 1YA1
u1
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Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model with uni-directional trade
Region 2 A2
u2
Region 3 A3
u3
Region 4 A4
u4
Region 5 A5
u5
Region 1YA1
u1
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Multi-regional input-output model with multi-directional trade
Region 2 A2
u2
Region 3 A3
u3
Region 4 A4
u4
Region 5 A5
u5
Region 1YA1
u1
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Plan
• What are we trying to measure?
• What methods do we use?
• What data do we need?
• What are the problems?
• Recommendations.
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Sector disaggregation• Every industrial sector is
assumed to be homogenous with regard to its input requirements, the commodity it produces, and the emissions from the firms within the sector.
• Therefore the fewer the sectors, the more errors occur.
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Data classifications
• EIO is fraught with data classification issues.
• For example– UK economic datasets are provided in different
classification from the environmental datasets.– Different countries use different classification systems
for their data.
• Cross-mapping between classification systems is therefore required and, as sectors often do not map directly, inaccuracies arise.
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Data conversion
• Economic datasets are provided using different price bases (eg Purchasers’ v Basic Prices). Conversion is required – but often incomplete information is available for this.
• Modelling imports requires conversion between different currencies. 2 types of exchange rates:
– Market exchange rates
– Purchasing power parity (PPP)• eliminates the differences in price levels between
countries. • statistical constructs rather than precise measures.• may differ markedly from market exchange rates.
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Availability of Input-Output Tables• Production of Input-Output Tables is highly time-intensive and
hence costly. They are therefore produced relatively infrequently. Technical coefficients are assumed to change slowly.
• Under EU regulations, member states are required to produce Input-Output Tables at 5 year intervals (European Commission 2007).
• The availability and disaggregation levels of data for different countries varies. – UK: 123 industrial sectors.
– Scotland:127 sectors. Produced annually since 1998, latest table 2004.
– USA: >400 sectors; latest table 2002.
• International datasets:Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)EXIOPOL project
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Plan
• What are we trying to measure?
• What methods do we use?
• What data do we need?
• What are the problems?
• Recommendations.
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Recommendation• Up-to-date economic and environmental data are
required in a consistent, compatible and highly disaggregated format.
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Recommendations specific to UK• Up- to-date, authorised input-output tables are urgently
required. • Failing this, full information should be disclosed in order for
tables to be produced by other organisations under supervision of the ONS.
• This information should include :– Data on which to calculate final and intermediate demand
in basic prices;– High sectoral disaggregation;– Detailed trade information ie imports and exports of
goods and services to/from world regions/countries at sector level;
– Detailed Supply tables (minimum suppression or privileged access);
– Information on capital investment (gross capital formation) by sectors.
These recommendations are largely in line with those made by Wiedmann et al (2008).
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UK as a leader?
http://www.ukwatch.net/files/GordonBrown.jpg
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The delights of data:deficiencies in the quagmire?
Angela Druckman and Tim JacksonRESOLVE
University of Surrey
Carbon Accounting Conference
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh
11 March 2009
www.carboncounting.org.uk