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Dave Brown and Nancy RhodesCARE Research and Development Lab
The University of [email protected]
Risky Driving BehaviorRisky Driving Behavior Effects on the Odds of Being KilledEffects on the Odds of Being Killed
SafeHomeAlabama.orgSafeHomeAlabama.org
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Traffic Safety CommunityTraffic Safety CommunityOur Responsibility to …Our Responsibility to …
• Use Available Information• Statewide 2006=1208 fatalities; 2007 = 1110• National
• Influence the Hard Decisions• Allocate the resources entrusted to us• To reduce the odds of fatal crashes
• Communicate Necessity for Tradeoffs• To decision makers: need for systems approach• To the general public (who influence these decisions)
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Risky DrivingRisky Driving Definition Definition
• Driving Behavior Per Se• Absence of reasonable care • Disregard for rules of the road• Thrill seeking – age and social/cultural influences
• Activities While Driving• Driving not seen as productive activity• Preoccupations, e.g., …• Reading• Cell phones• Eating
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Major Causes of Fatal CrashesMajor Causes of Fatal Crashes
• Lack of Restraint Usage• Alcohol or Drugs• Speed• Driver age factors• Youth risk-taking• Senior perception factors
• Ambulance response time
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All Crashes 2005 by Age
One in every 24 crashes is caused by a driver aged 18. *** About 3.5 Times More Crashes than Expected ***
Each cell represents the odds of the age ofthe causal driver in any given crash.
If all ages had the same odds: 1 in 83 Crashes
5 in 26
1 in 83Average
1 in 25569-80
Senior diminished physicalCapacity overcomes riskaversion at age 69;69-80 odds are 1 in 255
Age 16-20
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Speed vs. Non-Speed by Age
Non-Speed Crashes – blue barsProvide a “non-risk-taking” control.
One in every 10 speed crashes caused by 16 year old.*** Over 8 times more speed crashes than expected ***
5 in 14Age 16-20
1 in 83Speed
Average
69-80 Average 1 in 2000 crashes
Speed Crashes Provide a Proxy for Measuringthe Relative Presence of Risk-Taking Behavior
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Counter ArgumentCounter Argument
• Fact: Young people constitute a higher percentage of the driver population.
• Question: Is it that much higher?• Age 16-20 are 9.5% of driving population• They have: • 19% of crashes (twice expected)• 35% of speed crashes (3.6 expected)
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CountermeasuresCountermeasures• Focus Group Feedback (Perceptions)
• I don’t do it, but I do laugh at it (observed)• The cops are doing it (speeding and not restrained)• I got a warning! (something to brag about)
• Teen Misperceptions (Invulnerability) • The only problem is DUI (not for 16-17)• Being risky is cool (cultural norm)
• Potential Approaches• Peer-level motivation (making it un-cool)• Imaging the worst (before driving)• Pre-occupation with moving to safer position• Stronger GDL
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Crashes by Crash Type – 2005Crashes by Crash Type – 2005Yellow = Predominantly Risk TakingYellow = Predominantly Risk Taking
Crash Type Fatalities Crashes
1. Restraint Not Used 546 14,353
2. Speeding 331 7,917
3. Alcohol/Drug 212 7,482
4. Obstacle Removal 178 7,957
5. Youth - Age 16-20 (5 years) 157 27,471
6. License Status Deficiency 133 5,799
7. Mature - Age > 64 (15+ years) 112 11,861
8. Ambulance Delay > 45 Min. 97 2,127
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Crashes by Crash Type – 2005Crashes by Crash Type – 2005Yellow = Predominantly Risk TakingYellow = Predominantly Risk Taking
Crash Type Fatalities Crashes
9. School Bus/Ped/Bicycle 85 1,355
10. Pedestrian 73 667
11. Motorcycle 61* 1,808
12. Stop/Yield Sign Violation 74* 8,642
13. Red Light Violation 35* 9,801
14. Heavy Truck Caused 43* 6,300
15. Utility Pole 26 2,526
* 2004 Ordering
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Crashes by Crash Type – 2005Crashes by Crash Type – 2005Yellow = Predominantly Risk TakingYellow = Predominantly Risk Taking
Crash Type Fatalities Crashes
16. Roadway Defects 27* 3,624
17. Construction Zone 40* 2,915
18. Vehicle Defect 20 2,791
19. Vision Obscured 17 1,616
20. Child Not Restrained 14 1,420
21. Railroad Trains 12 95
22. Bicycle 12 287
Summary: 67% Risktaking
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#1 Restraint Not Used#1 Restraint Not Used Injury Crashes Injury Crashes
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Used Not Used Used Not Used
Probabilityof
Deathin
InjuryCrash
(Percent)
Adult Restraint Child Restraint
Alabama 2005 Crash Data
1 in 207
1 in 15
1 in 909
1 in 67
Increased chances forboth adult and child
unrestrained =13.5 times
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Fatal vs. Non-Fatal by Causal Vehicle The driver of this vehicle, who was the victimof a DUI, walked away with minor injuries only because she took two seconds to buckle up.
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Chance of Fatal Crash by SpeedChance of Fatal Crash by SpeedDoubles Every 10 MPHDoubles Every 10 MPH
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
35 45 55 65 75 85
Speed of Impact
Probabilityof
DeathinAll
Crashes(Percent)
Alabama 2005 Crash Data
1 in 133
1 in 40
1 in 16
1 in 9
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Vehicle TypeVehicle Type Question Question
In 2005, the driver of which vehicle type caused more fatal crashes:• Tractor Trailer Drivers?• Motorcycle Drivers?
Answer:• Tractor Trailer Drivers = 29• Motorcycle Drivers = 36
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Fatal vs. Non-Fatal by Causal Vehicle
Heavy Truck Caused Crashes:4.6% of All Crashes5.4% of Fatal Crashes
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In 2005, for fatal crashes that involved a truck and another vehicle, which driver was most often at fault?• Truck Drivers?• Other Drivers?
Answer:• Truck Driver = 25%• Other Driver = 75%
Truck-Car CrashesTruck-Car Crashes Question Question
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Responsible DriverResponsible Driver Car-Truck Crashes OnlyCar-Truck Crashes Only
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Truck Car Truck Car
ProportionOf
Car-TruckCrashesCaused
ByEach
VehicleType
All Crashes
Alabama 2002-2005 Crash Data
Fatal Crashes
Expected = 50%
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