David GeorgeHousing Intelligence for
the East Midlands (hi4em)December 2011
Fuel Poverty costs
How does fuel poverty impact on society?• Slows infant development – impact for life• Children and teenagers more likely to suffer:
– Meningitis and respiratory problems– Long term ill health and disability– Slow physical growth and delayed cognitive
development
• Vulnerable adults more likely to suffer:– Heart attack, stroke or respiratory illness– Slips, trips and falls
• Huge cost to NHS, Education, Social Services, Criminal Justice System – and people’s lives
References:• Harker L (2006) Chance of a lifetime: The impact of housing on children’s lives.
London: Shelter. http://england.shelter.org.uk/professional_resources/policy_library/policy_library_folder/chance_of_a_lifetime_-_the_impact_of_bad_housing_on_childrens_lives
• Capie R (2009) Beyond built: The role of housing in tackling inequality. CIH presentation to the Marmot Review. http://issuu.com/healthygreenfutures/docs/uk_marmot_review
• Review of Health and Safety Risk Drivers’ CLG in 2008: http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/reviewhealthsafety.pdf
East Midlands Fuel Poverty levels
• DECC 2008 LSOA dataset = 359,000 (19.2%)– Based on fuel costs, income and energy needed to
heat homes
• Hi4em 2011 LSOA dataset = 277,400 (14.1%)– Based on CO2 emissions, household income and fuel
costs (Nottingham Energy Partnership web site March 2011)
– What is actually spent rather than what is needed
Spatial distribution
Effect of price rises
15% Price rise: 75,000 more fuel poor 26.9% increase 30%+ in parts of
Lincolnshire Map shows numeric
increase
Hi4em fuel poverty Model can be updatedas prices fluctuate
UK Carbon Reduction targets
UK CO2 reduction targets (million tonnes)
8.5
2.40.82.7
1.5
3.2
0.9
3.50.5
Business as usual Price impact Zero carbon homes
Lofts and cavities to 2012 Smart meters Renewable Heat Incentive
CERT/CESP to 2012 Major measures 2012-2020 Lofts and cavities 2012-2020
East Midlands targetsEast Midlands CO2 reduction targets (tonnes)
583,000
162,00048,600178,00097,200
210,600
64,800
243,00024,400
Business as usual Price impact Zero carbon homes
Lofts and cavities to 2012 Smart meters Renewable Heat Incentive
CERT/CESP to 2012 Major measures 2012-2020 Lofts and cavities 2012-2020
Green deal – how many homes?
Lofts & cavities 2012-20:– 32,400 tonnes - equal to 381,000 loft top-ups
or 81,000 cavity insulations
• Major measures – primarily solid wall insulation– 243,000 tonnes – equal to 162,000 dwellings
or 30% of all solid walled houses
The task
Will get harder– Fuel market price increases– Cost of carbon reduction policies expected to
be £200 per household– Policies expected to have much smaller impact
where homes are fully insulated
• Message: – Pay to insulate your home, or pay to insulate
your neighbour’s home
• Challenge:– Match Green Deals to fuel poor households
Fuel Poor householdsDECC data: 61.4% are single adult households
DECC - % of fuel poor households by household composition
6.8
15.1
9.9
7.07.020.6
33.8
Couple, no dependent child(ren), under 60 Couple, no dependent child(ren), aged 60 or over
Couple with dependent child(ren) Lone parent with dependent child(ren)
Other multi-person households One person under 60
One person aged 60 or over
Fuel Poor householdsDECC data: 26.8% of single adult households are fuel poor
5.5
14.7
7.1
16.614.2
24.1
33.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Couple, nodependentchild(ren),under 60
Couple, nodependentchild(ren),aged 60 or
over
Couple w ithdependentchild(ren)
Lone parentw ith
dependentchild(ren)
Other multi-person
households
One personunder 60
One personaged 60 or
over
DECC Fuel Poor by household composition
Fuel Poor
Fuel Poor householdsHi4em data: 71% are single adult households or home sharers
Hi4em - % of fuel poor by family lifestage
Other Elderly family no children <18
Elderly single Mature family no children <18
Mature family with children <18 Mature household with children <18
Mature singles/homesharers Older family no children <18
Older family/household with children<18 Older single
Young family no children <18 Young family with children <18
Young household with children <18 Young singles/homesharers
Fuel Poor householdsHi4em data: 26.9% are single adult households or home sharers
05
1015202530354045
Hi4em - % in fuel poverty by family lifestage
% in fuel poverty
Targeting
Average area of 3,000 households: Target 1,000 single person households – data
available to LAs through Council Tax single person discount
Reaches 269 in fuel poverty = approx 66% of all fuel poor
Leaves 139 fuel poor families to find
Targeting
Single person households in or at risk of fuel poverty
Families in or at risk of fuel poverty
Hi4em help
• Hi4em model can be split into families and single person households
• Your household data can be added to improve accuracy:– Insulation installed– Boilers replaced– CO2 emission estimates– Renewable energy installations– Household income data
• Target areas based on most up-to-date data
Hi4em help
We can analyse data to give:• dwelling and household characteristics of fuel
poor households in your area• loft, cavity and solid wall insulation targets to
eliminate fuel poverty and meet carbon reduction targets in any area
• Ranking of lower super output areas to your criteria – fuel poverty, dwelling age, vulnerability etc
More information
Full report and appendices:
• Expands on these themes and gives much more data
• Available at www.hi4em.org.uk
Any Questions?