Download - Deadline, 2012
(July24:DandyWandy)
Firstofall,theabilitytotradeplayersisoneofthereasonssportsare
awesome.I’mkindofsurprisedthatnoonehasevermountedasuccessfulSupreme
Courtchallengetotheconceptoftransferringhumanbeingsacrossthecountrytoa
newworkplace(sometimeswith,butmoreoften)withouttheirconsent.Thinkofit
inlayman’sterms:
That’dbeprettycool,unlessyouweretheguytradedtoStarbucksheadquartersin
Seattleforacrateofballpointpens.
Althoughwe’veplayedgreatbaseballafterthebreak,it’sclearthatwe’re
goingtoneedsomenewbloodifwewanttohangwiththeRedsdownthestretch.
Twomonthsago,theBucsneededtopickupabatlikeLazarusneededthatpick‐me‐
upfromChrist.Now,withtheoffenseoutpacingthatoftheYankees,astarting
pitchermightbethefirstpriority.JeffKarstenshasbeengoodsincehisreturnfrom
injury,butBedardcontinuestoflounderandCorreiaisbasicallyatickingtime
bomb.Soonenough,eitherBedardwillbesidelinedwithastrainedrightkidneyor
Correia’sERAwilljumpintothe6.00range(orboth),soitwouldbeprudentfor
NealHuntingtontogooutandgetareliablestarter.
ThebignamesinthestartingpitchermarketareColeHamelsandZack
Greinke,neitherofwhomarerealisticoptionsforthePirates.Inthesecondtieris
theCubs’RyanDempster,theownerofMLB’sbestERAthisseason.Dempsterisn’t
amarqueenamelikeHamelsorGreinke,buthe’safive‐and‐tenguy(fiveyearswith
currentteam,tenyearstotalintheleague)andthereforehastherighttovetoany
tradehedoesn’tlike.ReportshavelinkedhimtoadealwithAtlanta,buthe’s
stallingonthatanditlookslikehemightultimatelyrejectit.Ifhe’sreluctanttojoin
theBraves,Ican’timaginehe’dokayatradetotheupstartPirates.Hisloss.
Lastnight,wordbrokeoutthatthePiratesmightbeinterestedinAstros’
rotationstalwartWandyRodriguez.
(I’mintheOlympicspiritnow.U‐S‐A.)
Rodriguezhasbeenthepersonificationofreliabilityoverthepastfewyears,
whichisexactlywhatthePiratesneedatthismoment.Pitchingintheanonymityof
Houston,he’sputupanERAbetween3.00and3.60ineachofthelastfourseasons.
IfIhadtodescribeWandyRodriguezinoneword,it’dbe“solid.”That’scertainlya
compliment.He’sundercontractthrough2014,whichmeanshe’dbebothashort
andlongtermaddition—butalsomeansitwilltakemorethanathrowaway
prospecttoacquirehim.Aslongasthepriceisn’ttoohigh,I’djumponit.
Midwaythroughadepressing5‐1homelosstotheCubs(theCubs,really?),
theWandyspeculationturnsintoreality.
Well,thisismoreexcitingthanwatchingJ‐Macsputteragainsta39‐56team.
Assumingthenewsistrue,theonlyremainingquestioniswhatthePirateswillbe
givingup.TherearefiveprospectsinthePittsburghsystemthatIconsider“off‐
limits”unlesswe’retalkingaboutamajorpickup:GerritCole(RHP/21years
old/2011#1overallpick),JamesonTaillon(RHP/20/2010#2overallpick),Josh
Bell(OF/19/20112ndroundpickwithupper‐halfof1stroundtalent),Starling
Marte(OF/23/2011Double‐Abattingaverageleader),andLuisHeredia
(RHP/17/Mexicanwunderkindwithhugeceiling).Noneofthatquintetwouldbein
theconversationforWandy.1ButanythingbelowthemI’dbeokaywith.
1It’sbecomingcleartomethat“Wandy”isoneofthosenamesthatlendsitselftobeingtheperson’smaintitle.Yousay,“Wandy”andpeopleknowimmediatelywhoyou’retalkingabout.LikeOprah.Hearing,“Rodriguezispitchingtonight,”islikehearing,“Winfrey’sshowisonat3.”
45minuteslater,it’sofficial.
Nice!Let’sseetheearlyreviews.
(BucsDugout.comcontributor)
(BaseballAmericawriter)
I’mrightwiththem.
GrossmanwastheprincipalransomfortheAstrosinthisexchange.Hehad
agreatyearinhigh‐Aballlastyear,walkingover100timesandputtingupastellar
.418OBP.It’shardtoenvisionhimasaregularbigleaguecorneroutfielder,though,
duetohislackofpop.Icouldseehimdevelopingintoabenchbat/platoonplayer
sortofguy,whichisusefulbutnotanythingtofretoverlosing.Owenswasalow‐
minorsstar,butstruggledmightilyoncehegottoTriple‐A.Helikelydoesn’thave
majorleaguevaluegoingforward.Cainissomethingofaquestionmark;ahigh
schoolbonusbaby,he’spostedmiddlingresultsinrookieandlow‐Aball.The
chanceshegrowsintoanMLBstarteraren’tgreat.Alltold,whatwe’regivingupis
probablynotworth2+seasonsofWandy.AfteryearsoftoilingforhopelessAstros
clubs,I’msureWandy’sthrilledtojoinacontenderforthestretchrun!
Oh.Well,uh,thatjustreflectsthekindofcommitmentanddedicationyou’re
lookingforinanewaddition!(?)Justjoshin’.IhadthesamereactionwhenIfound
outmycablepackageatschooldidn’tincludeMLBNetwork.
Therearealsoafewhiddensweetenersinthedeal.Forone,thePiratesadd
aveteranpitcherwithoutrestrainingtheirundersizedcheckbookasmuchasyou’d
thinksuchamovemight.
TheAstrosaremovingtotheAmericanLeagueWestin2013.Theyarealreadythe
worstteaminbaseballbyatrulylaughablemargin.Giventhestepupin
competition,theywilllikelylosebetween100and105gamesineachofthenext
twoyears.Andinthemidstofoneofthose14‐3drubbingsatthehandsofthe
Rangers,generalmanagerJeffLuhnowwillthinktohimself,“WehavepaidWandy
Rodriguezthousandsofdollarsduringthisgamealone,andhecannothelpusstop
thebleedingbecauseheplaysforthePittsburghPirates.”Suchisthepriceof
baseballsometimes.ThePiratesaredoingwelltoexploitthis.
Also,shouldWandycontinuepitchinginthegeneralmannerhe’spitchedthis
season,hisresultswillimprovebyvirtueofchangeinworkplacealone.
GreatworkbyJon.HepostedagraphicdocumentingthelandingspotsofallHRs
Wandyhasallowedathomein2012,imposedonamapofPNCPark.It’sprettyeasy
toseethatnearlyallhomerunshe’sallowedtoleftfieldbecomeouts—or,atworst,
doubles—ifthey’rehitinPittsburgh.Anyonewho’severwatchedagamein
Houstonknowstheleftfield“CrawfordBoxes2”arethedefinitionofa“shortporch”
andturnmanylongflyballsintocheaphomers.Whatyoumightnotrealizeisjust
howbigofanimpactthatcanhaveonapitcher’sresultsifhepitcheshalfhisgames
there.In2011,WandyRodriguezandMikePelfreyhadnearlyidenticalbattedball
profiles:whencontactwasmade,Rodriguezinduced20.0%linedrives,45.2%
groundballs,and34.8%flyballscomparedtoPelfrey’s19.6%,45.6%,and34.7%
marksinthesamecategories.It’snotastretchtosaythatthedifferenceintheir
homerunperflyballrate(HR/FB)—13.0%forWandy,9.1%forPelfrey—probably
hadsomethingtodowiththefactthatoneofthempitchedtheirhomecontestsin
2NamedassuchbecausetheyrunparalleltoCrawfordStreetindowntownHouston,thankyouWikipedia.
frontoftheCrawfordBoxeswhiletheotherstarted15gamesinthespacious
dimensionsofNewYork’sCitiField.Sciencerules.3
I’mnotsayingIhavenoreservations.We’retalkingabouta33‐yearold
pitcherwhoprobablywon’tbeimprovingwithage(unlesshegoestheBarryBonds
route,whichisillegalbothbybaseballrulesandfederallaw)andisalreadyshowing
somemildsignsofdecline.
Wandyhastraditionallybeenahighstrikeoutguy,buthisK/9hasbeenfalling
incrementallysince2008andcurrentlysitsat6.13.Hittersaremakingmore
contactonhispitchesbothinandoutofthestrikezone,whichindicatesthatthe
dropisn’tjustacoincidenceofsequencing.4Fortunately,itdoesn’tlooklikea
productofdiminishedstuff—hisaveragefastballvelocityisactuallyhigherthanit
3Yes,thatwasaBillNyetheScienceGuythemesongreference.Borninthe‘90sandproudofit.4“Coincidenceofsequencing?”Considerthis:PitcherAandPitcherBbothget10swingingstrikesinagame.PitcherAracksup10strikeouts,becauseallhiswhiffscamewithtwostrikes.PitcherBstrikesnooneout,becauseheinducedswings‐and‐missesearlyinthecountexclusively.Theyprobablyhavesimilar“whiffskills,”eveniftheresultsdiffer.Ifyouhadtopredicttheirfuturestrikeoutrates,you’dwanttohavethisinformationonhand.
wasinhisbeststrikeoutyear(2008).PitchFXdataalsorevealsanuptickin2‐seam
fastballsthisyear,indicatingthatthespikeingroundballsisintentional.Themore
groundballsonegets,themoreonecangetawaywithfewerstrikeouts,becauseone
isreducingthepossibilityoftheballbeinghitintheairforahomerun.Asexpected,
weconcludeourdescriptionofWandyRodriguezwiththeword“solid.”Wandy
Rodriguezisasolidpitcher.
(July26:ChangeYouGottaBelieveIn)
Wheelinganddealingisn’ttheonlymethodofrosterimprovementavailable
tothePirates.Tonight,they’llupgradefromwithin.Muchballyhooedprospect
StarlingMarteissettomakehismajorleaguedebutinHoustonafteritwas
announcedyesterday,towidespreadglee,thathe’dbejoiningthebigclub.
Tothispoint,thePirates’leftfieldsituationhasconsistedofAlexPresley
(.231/.269/.364),therecentlydemotedJoseTabata(.230/.295/.341),andfolkhero
DrewSutton(.241/.250/.431,butwiththedefensiveprowessofawandering
sheep).Meanwhile,Marte’sbeencomingintohisownatTriple‐AIndianapolis
(.286/.347/.500,with13triplesand12homersin99games),andtheclamorsfor
hispromotionhavegrowndeafeningrecently.Iunderstandthereluctancetorusha
prospecttothebigleaguesbeforehe’sabsolutelyready,butdiretimescallfordire
measures.Unfortunately,I’msittingonaplanerightnowenroutetovacationin
SouthCarolina,soIwon’tbeabletowatch.Starling’sbattingleadoff.Hopethekid
makessomethinghappen.
[Flightlandsat8:20,IimmediatelyturnmyphoneonandrefreshTwitter]
Firstpitchoftheballgame!Hecouldgo0‐for‐Augustandstillmaintainthefans’
supportafterthisentrance.Thefuture’ssobright,wegottawearflip‐downshades.5
(July29:Speculation)
EveryoneishappyabouttheWandyacquisition.Withtheexceptiontheguy
whogotforcedoutoftherotationasaresult.
5PatentedbyPiratesHallofFameplayer‐managerFredClarkein1915!#BUCN
Correiawantstobeastarter,andhe’snotcontentwithbeingalongrelief
optioninPittsburgh.Understandable.Beingastartingpitcherhasacertainbadge
ofhonorqualityaboutit,especiallyforsomeonewho’sstarted105gamesinthelast
fouryears.Iwouldn’tbehappyeither.ButIthinkI’drealizethatIwasa
replacement‐levelcommoditytobeginwith.
TheotherthingI’veheardtodayisavaguerumorthatthePiratesareoneof
theteamsprobingtheIndiansaboutShin‐SooChoo’saskingprice.Allegedly,it
wouldincludeMarte.That’sgonnabeano‐go.
WelosttotheAstrostoday.J‐MacwalkedSEVEN.I’mstartingtobecome
concerned.Hereallyneedstoturnitaroundorelsetherestoftheseasonisgoingto
be“A.J.andWandyandprayforrain.”46hourslefttomakesomedeals.InNealWe
Trust.
(July30:Bye,Bye,Brad;Salut,Snider)
EverseethatJean‐ClaudeVanDammemovieSuddenDeath,wherethesetting
isGame7oftheStanleyCupFinals6butthefocusofeverythingistheevents
happeningofftheice?Tonight’sgameagainsttheCubsisexactlylikethat,except
thatWrigleyFieldisn’tladenwithbombsintendedtokilltheVicePresidentanda
bunchofotherimportantpeople.TheBucsaregettingsmashedbytheBabyBears,
butwe’remorefocusedonpossibletransactionsthatarebeingnegotiatedduring
thegame,andthey’remoreconcernedaboutsendingtheirrecentlytradedplayers
offwithhugs.
Chicago’stradedPaulMaholmandReedJohnsontotheBraves,andmovedGeovany
SotototheRangers—andthisgameisn’tevenoveryet.Eachtime,theCubshave
convenedinthedugoutandtakenturnsembracingtheirnowex‐teammates.Watch
out,Cubbies:alengthypatonthebackafteragoodplaymightmean,“Niceknowing
you,”andnot,“Nicejob.”
6InPittsburgh,coincidentally.
Foronce,IcouldcarelessifErikBedardhasgivenupgivenupnineruns
withoutgettingoutofthe5th,becausethetradewindsareblowing.TheChoo
rumorisn’tdeadyet.StephenDrew’snamehasbeenmentioned.Puttingtogethera
packageforSanDiego’sChaseHeadleyisstillaremotepossibility.Somethingis
goingtohappeninthenext18hours.Nobody’squitesurewhat.
What,now?IknowwhoTravisSnideris.He’soneofthoseguyswho’sbeen
talkedaboutasabigprospectforyearsbuthasn’tbeenabletoestablishhimselfin
thebigs.Sniderbringsatonofupside.Iwouldneverhaveguessed,however,that
he’dbeonourradarasapotentialdeadlinepickup.Whenyouthinkdeadline
acquisitions,youthinkofprovenvetsbroughtintostabilizeateamintheshort‐
term,notyoungsterswithuntappedpotential.Butgettingbeyondthesurprise
factor,itsoundslikeareallygooddeal.
(Meaningwejustgotasteal.)
(Morosi=FOXSports.comnationalbaseballwriter)
(Ithoughtthatwasareallyfunnyresponse.)
Assuredly,somepeoplearegoingtobeupset.ThePiratesaresurrendering
their0.50ERA7thinningmanforanunprovenoutfielder.
It’strue:BradLincolnhasbeencompletelyfantasticoutofthebullpenthisyear.
That’sexactlytheissue,though:theconsensusisthatLincolnisnevergoingtobe
muchmorethanagoodreliever.There’svalueingetting60‐80qualityrelief
inningsayearoutofaguy,butbullpenpartsarealsoadimeadozen.Justlookat
thenamesthePirateshavepickedupforessentiallynothingoverthelastfewyears:
JasonGrilli(pluckedfromPhilliesTriple‐Aaffiliate,sub‐2.00ERAthisyear),Juan
Cruz($1.25millionfreeagent,2.61ERA),JoseVeras($1millionfreeagent,9.2
careerK/9),JavierLopez($775,000freeagent,2.79ERAin2010),andthelistgoes
on.Youcantakefailedstarterswithgoodarms(i.e.Lincolnhimself)andtrainthem
tobeeffectiverelievers.IfTravisSniderdevelopsintoanaveragepositionplayer—
andthere’snoreasontothinkhewon’t—he’lleasilyequalLincoln’sworththrough
theendoftheirrespectiveteamcontrolperiods.
TravisSniderhasputuparespectable.248/.306/.429linefortheBlueJays,
whilereceivinginfrequentplayingtime.He’sneverhadachancetosettleinatthe
majorleaguelevelformorethanhalfaseason.Hasheliveduptoexpectations?Not
quite.CanwethrowhimuptherewithRyanLeafandKwameBrownintheBust
HallofFame?Absolutelynot.
Forsomeonewho’sbeendoggedfornotyethavingreachedhispotential,hedoesn’t
haveverymanycandlesonhisbirthdaycake.(24,tobeexact.)ChaseUtleydidn’t
evenmakehisMLBdebutuntilhewasolderthanSnideristoday.He’sanasset
already,andthere’splentyoftimeforhimtoimprove.
Thankstothemiracleofsocialmedia,wecanseetheplayers’ownreactions
tobeingtraded.ThenewBuccofirst:
@Lunchboxhero45?Apparentlyasimpletributetohisloveofeating.Icandigit.
Also,“Pittsburg”isatownof20,233inKansas.“Pittsburgh”istheCityof
Champions.Commonmistake.Won’tholditagainsthim.Yourturn,Mr.Lincoln:
Itgetsbetter.
(LincolnII;Ithinkautocorrectturned“believe”into“beloved.”)
VeryclassyexitbyLincoln.Isurehopehe’sright.Fortherecord,Brad,Idon’thold
itagainstyouthatyou’renotTimLincecumorClaytonKershaw.
(July31:AllMerchandiseMustGoBy4p.m.)
I’mnotgoingtopretendforasecondIknowwhatNealHuntingtonistrying
todointhelasthoursbeforethenon‐waiverdeadlinearrives.It’sbeenprettymuch
ruledoutthatanyofthebignamesarecomingtothePirates,sowe’reprobably
lookingatafewminoradditions.ThecombinationofWandyandSniderisalreadya
biggeryieldthanwhatwepickeduparoundthedeadlinein2011—addingDerrek
LeeandRyanLudwickforpracticallynothing—soanythingelseisgravy.
GabySanchez….interesting.
.202/.250/.306doesn’tsoundlikealineofaplayerthatacontendingteamwould
wanttoaddtoitsAugust/Septemberlineup.He’salsoenduredtwoseparate
demotionstoTriple‐Ain2012.Ifthisgoesthrough,we’rereallycountingonhimto
rediscoverhis2010‐2011hittingskills.
Allright,then.Idon’tbelievethatSanchezhasforgottenhowtohit,butit’slessthan
asurethingthathisnumberswillrecovertotheirprevious“All‐Star”levels.7The
Piratesclearlybelieveineitherhimortheirownstaff’sability.
Updateonthespecificsofthedeal.
7“YougettobeanAll‐Star,[pointsatdifferentperson]andyougettobeanAll‐Star,[pointsatanotherdifferentperson],andyougettobeanAll‐Star![pointsatJamesMcDonald,RyanVogelsong,JohnnyCueto,andRyanDempster]Sorry,guys,weonlyhavesomuchspace.”
Soauniquelynamed,butlight‐hittingdefensiveoutfielder(GorkysHernandez)and
anend‐of‐first‐rounddraftpick8foraformer“All‐Star”andaminorleaguerelief
pitcher.I’llmisswatchingGorkyssnatcheveryballintheareacodeasalate‐inning
defensivereplacement,butultimatelyhe’snotveryvaluable.Let’shopetheMarlins
don’tusethedraftpicktotakeaHallofFamer.
Timeforaworry‐relievingjoke.
8Anotherpartofthenewdraftrulesgivessmallmarketteamsandlow‐revenueteamsachancetowinoneofthesix“competitivebalance”picks,whichwillbeselections#31‐36.Unlikeregulardraftslots,thesecanbetraded.Ican’tfindanythingtocomplainabouthere.
OzzieGuillenwantedtobeasailorwhenhewasakid,buthislanguagemadesailors
toouncomfortableandhewasforcedtoturntobaseballinstead.
I’vebeengivingJake(thefellowLincecumlover)theplay‐by‐playontoday’s
tradeactionbecausehedoesn’thaveTwitteraccessatthemoment.Heraisesa
goodpointaboutthelogisticsofbringinginSanchez.
AssumingSniderwassettobecometheeverydayrightfielder,firstbasewasgoing
tobeaplatoonofGarrettJonesandCaseyMcGehee.Nowthere’sanotherright‐
handedhittingfirstbasemaninthemix.Oristhere?
Itbecomesofficialminuteslater.Colormeconfused.
JonahKeri(authorofTheExtra2%andmyfavoritebaseballwriter)issimilarly
perplexed.
Harsh,buttrue—he’sbeenterribleforthebetterpartofthelastthreeyears.2010‐
2012ERA:5.13.Ouch.
Wait,Ijustfigureditout.WewereprobablygoingtocutMcGeheeanyway,
sowe’rejustpickingupafreeplayerforhiminstead.Makesalittlemoresense
now.StillnotthrilledabouthavingChadQuallsontheroster.
Sonowwecancalltheactionfinalandappraisethemoves.Wandy=solid.
(obviously)Snider=goodintheshortterm,possiblyGREATinthelongterm.
Sanchez=whynot?Qualls=why?(butnottotallyinexplicable)Thelackofbignames
reeledinwillbenodoubtcitedbytheanti‐ownershipforcesasproofofindifference
onthefrontoffice’spart,butthat’sbecausenothingwouldsatisfythem.
Personally,I’mprettyhappywiththeoverallresults.Wesolidifiedthe
rotation,addedacouplebats,and—mostimportantly—didn’tsacrificeanymajor
assetstodoit.AllthepiecesareinplaceforarunatOctoberbaseball.Nowpardon
mewhileIgopoundsomeAdvilandtakeanap.
ThedeadlineisgruelingonGMsandfansalike.