Development and Application of an AsymptoticLevel Transport Pollution Model for
Luxembourg Energy Air Quality Project
Lara Aleluia da Silva Reis
Faculty of Science, Technology and CommunicationUniversity of Luxembourg
in collaboration with
Resource Centre for Environmental TechnologiesCRP Henri Tudor
05/02/2013
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Integrated Assessment Models for Air Pollution
3 Luxembourg Energy and Air Quality (LEAQ) Model
4 The LEAQ Air Quality Model - AYLTP
5 Air Quality Model Results
6 Application of the LEAQ model
7 Conclusion and Future Work
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 2 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Air Quality - A Major Concern
The London smogdisaster 1952,brought attention tothe damaging effectsof air pollution.
There is a negative relation of air pollution with humanhealth, resulting in an increase of morbidity and mortality.[Ström et al., 1994; Solé et al.,2007; West et al., 2007; Laaidi et al., 2011; Rückerl et al.,
2011; Tzivian, 2011].
“Urban outdoor air pollution is estimated to cause 1.3million deaths worldwide per year.” [World Health Organization, 2011].
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 3 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Need of Integrated Solutions for Air quality
“Indeed air pollutant concentrations are still too high andharm our health and the ecosystems we depend on.”[European Environment Agency, 2012].
Ozone (O3) is one of the most problematic and harmfulpollutants. Exposure to O3 has generally not decreasedsince 2001. [European Environment Agency, 2012].
European legislation on air quality has been developed andis becoming more and more strict.“European policies and measures increasingly seek tomaximise co-benefits, managing air pollutant andgreenhouse gas emissions at the least cost tosociety.” [European Environment Agency, 2011].
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 4 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Objectives
Develop an air quality model, with the focus on thepollutant ozone, for an optimization integrated assessmentmodel.
Build a photochemical air quality module which can beincluded in the LEAQ framework.Develop of an emission allocation module.
Evaluate the developed air quality model.Apply the developed air quality model within the LEAQintegrated assessment model.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 5 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Integrated Assessment Models for Air Pollution
Integrated assessment model
Combines knowledge from different scientific fields in orderto study a problem that cannot be studied by a singledisciplinary approach.
Modelling approaches:Simulation mode → Scenario evaluationOptimization mode → Optimal strategy
Mathematical problem:Cost-benefit → based on the total cost (Economic +Impacts)Cost-effectiveness → imposes an environmental constraint
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 6 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Integrated Assessment Models for Air Pollution
Name Emission model Air quality model Scale Reference
Simulation mode
MERG MARKAL SCA regional J ames et al. (1985)RAINS PRIMES EMEP regional Alcamo and Hordijk (1990)ASAM EMEP/CASM RAINS regional ApSimon et al. (1994)SAMI EMS-95/Mobile5b URM-1ATM,. . . regional Odman et al. (2002)USIAM Inventory ADMS-Urban urban Mediavilla and ApSimon (2003)IMPAQT ADMS inventory ADMS-Urban urban Limet al. (2005)EC4MACS GAINS TM5,EMEP,. . . regional EC4MACS (2007)SIMCA CEP/SMOKE CMAQ regional Borgeet al. (2008)BRUTAL iMOVE ADMS-Urban,. . . urban Oxley et al. (2009)MINNI RAINS-Italy FARM regional D’Elia et al. (2009)Mexico2050 E3MG p-TOMCAT regional Barker et al. (2010)SEA Projection MUAIR urban Nguyen and Coowanitwong (2010)Finish IAM for PM FRES,EMEP SILAM regional Tainio et al. (2010)Global Health Impacts MESSAGE TM5 global Rao et al. (2012)
Optimisation mode
Shih Projections Isopleths urban Shih et al. (1998)RAINS PRIMES EMEP regional Amann et al. (2001)UKIAM NAEI FRAME,PPM regional Oxley et al. (2003)GENEVA MARKAL-lite TAPOM-lite urban Carlson et al. (2004)OMEGA EMEP EMEP regional Reis et al. (2005)MERLIN EMEP OFIS regional Reis et al. (2005)GAMES EMEP TCAM regional Carnevaleet al. (2008)GAINS GAINS EMEP regional Amann et al. (2011)LEAQ ETEM TAPOM-lite urban Zachary et al. (2011)
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 7 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Reduction Techniques used Integrated Assessment Models for AirPollution
Artificial neural networks: non-linear relationship linkingair quality indicator and precursor emissions.Source-receptor: used in emission reduction strategies,store information about the contribution of emissions by asource to the concentration levels in a receptor pointModel reduction: reduce the order of the equation of theproblem. For example using linear relationships to relateozone levels to its precursors levels.
Develop innovative solutions that can reproduce thecomplex relations between ozone and its precursors, andat the same time simple enough to keep the uncertaintiesat a minimum. [Carnevale et al, 2008].
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 8 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Luxembourg Energy and Air Quality Model
LEAQ
Integrated assessment model for air quality designedfor Luxembourg Grand-duchy. It consists of an En-ergy Techno-economic Model (ETEM) and an Air qualityModel (AUSTAL2000-AYLTP) coupled in an optimizationproblem.
Long-term energy use and air quality planning.Energy technologies related not only to emissions but,more importantly, with AQ levels.May be applicable to other regions/cities.Open-source software.Inclusion of secondary pollution → ozone.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 9 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Luxembourg Energy and Air Quality Model
Goal: Find the optimal energy arrangement which complies witha given ambient ozone level standard.
ETEM OBOE AUSTAL2000-AYLTPEmissionAllocator
Energy costYearly emissions
Emissions abatement
Yearly emissions Emissions strengths
Air quality indicator ≤ Target
The optimisation framework requires a fast Air qualitymodel.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 10 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Luxembourg Energy and Air Quality Model
Goal: Find the optimal energy arrangement which complies witha given ambient ozone level standard.
ETEM OBOE AUSTAL2000-AYLTPEmissionAllocator
Energy costYearly emissions
Emissions abatement
Yearly emissions Emissions strengths
Air quality indicator ≤ Target
The optimisation framework requires a fast Air qualitymodel.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 10 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The ETEM Luxembourg Model
† Simplified example of a reference energy system.
The ETEM model implemented for the LuxembourgcountryTotal cost of the energy system.Air pollutants (NOx, VOC) → Ozone precursors
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 11 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Emission Allocation Module
Disaggregation of theannual emissions by sector:
Land-use mapsTemporal profiles:monthly, weekly andhourly.
Time series maps ofemissions’ strengthsAUSTAL2000 format
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 12 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Oracle Based Optimisation Engine (OBOE)
Optimisation engineIterative analytic centrecutting plane method:ACCPMAt each iteration, OBOEsolves the optimisationproblem based on cuts:
Feasibility cut to definethe feasible setOptimality cut to definethe problem’s function x
Feasibility set
Feasibility cut
Optimality cut
f(x)
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 13 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Ozone Behaviour
Secondary pollutant → not emitted.The relation of ozone with its precursors is not linear.There are two ozone regimes: NOx -Limited and NOx
-Saturated.A decrease of NOx might lead to an increase of O3.depending on the VOC/NOx ratio.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 14 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Modelling Photochemistry
The air quality model desirable characteristics:Include topographyInclude meteorologyFlexibleOpen-sourceSecondary pollutant: ozone
The AsYmptotic Level Transport Pollution (AYLTP)
Find a compromise between CPU time and accuracy
It is assumed that under a certain number of restrictedconditions a linear pollutants’ production rate holds.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 15 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The LEAQ Air Quality Model
Use AUSTAL2000 Lagrangian particle model as the transportcalculator and implement a photochemical module through LUT.
AUSTAL2000-AYLTP
INPUTS
Yearly
Emissions
DEM
Meteorology
Background
Concentrations
Emission
strengths
Lookup Table (LUT)
Emission
Allocation
Temporal
Profiles
Spatial Profiles
AUSTAL2000
Particle transport
and difussion
concentration
at time t
Application of the
production rates
Updated
concentrations
Concentration
at time = t
Landuse map
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 16 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The LookUp-Tables (LUT)
AUSTAL2000
Lookup table
Each runis stored
OZIPR model
Variables:
Hour of the day[a,b]
Temperature[a,b]
Relative Humidity[a,b]
Precursor concentration[a,b]
Ks = Pollutants’ rates
Ks
Ks
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 17 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Production Rates
The use of quasi-linear production ozone rates allows the fastsimulation of ozone production/depletion in AUSTAL2000.
Ksp(cp(t),Ω) =cp(t+ ∆t; cp(t),Ω)− cp(t)
∆t,
p ∈ NOx, V OC,O3,
c is concentrationt is time periodΩ are the meteorological variablesfinal concentration cp(t+ ∆, cp(t),Ω) is calculated byOZIPR.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 18 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The Production Rates
The rates Ks are applied as follows:
m′p,i,j,k(t) = mp,i,j,k(t) +Ksp(cp(t),Ω)∆tV, ∀(i, j, k) ∈ E,
where E is the calculation domain.
The new mass is then applied over the particles located inthe cell, by distributing equally the mass.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 19 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
AQ Model Results
Day: - July 19th 2006- high ozone concentration day - ETEM emissions calibrated for 2006
01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00
07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00
13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00
19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00
O3 µgm−3
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 20 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Air Quality Qualitative Evaluation
Beckerich Beidweiler
Esch Alzette Luxembourg Bonnevoie
Luxembourg Centre Mont St.Nicolas
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 5 10 15 20 250 5 10 15 20 25Time [hour]
O3
conc
entr
atio
n [µ
gm−3
]AUSTAL2000−AYLTP LOTOS Observed
Beckerich Beidweiler
Esch Alzette Luxembourg Bonnevoie
Luxembourg Centre Mont St.Nicolas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 5 10 15 20 250 5 10 15 20 25Time [hour]
NO
x co
ncen
trat
ion
[µgm
−3]
AUSTAL2000−AYLTP LOTOS Observed
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 21 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Air Quality Quantitative Evaluation
Centered RMS Difference
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1
2
0.1 0.2 0.30.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.99
Correlation
O3
Centered RMS Difference
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.50.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
1
1.5
0.1 0.2 0.30.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.99
Correlation
NOx
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 22 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The LEAQ Convex Optimization Problem
Find the optimal energy arrangement which complies witha given ambient ozone level standard.
mineγ(e) : p(e)− p ≤ 0 ,
wheree: pollutant’s annual emission bounds.γ(e): energy system cost.p(e): air quality indicator on ozone.p: air quality indicator target.
OBOE requires a convex problem.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 23 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Convex Optimization Approach Limitations
AOT: Accumulated Ozone exposure over a Threshold
80 100 120 140 160NOX [t]
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
VO
C[t
]
O3 - AOT01
9.0
9.3
9.6
9.9
10.2
10.5
10.8
11.1
[µgm-3]
80 100 120 140 160NOX [t]
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
VO
C[t
]
O3 - AOT01
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
[µgm-3]
Realistic meteorology Theoretical worst meteorological case
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 24 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Air Quality Model Uncertainty
The number of Lagrangian particles used in the simulationsis much smaller than the number of particles in reality →sampling error.Turbulent velocities in AUSTAL2000 are simulated using arandom velocity.
εc =σcc
(1)
σc standard deviation between the groups.c average of the groups.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 25 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The LEAQ Application - The Luxembourg Country: Scenario 1
The Luxembourg Country:Scenario 1: NOx national emissions.Uncertainty of the air quality model, using 95% of theupper limit of the confidence interval.
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180NOx emissions during 3-day episode (t)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Ozo
ne
AO
T1
(μg m
-3)
ExpectedUpper limitConstraints
Optimal emissions vsAOT1-indicator
Threshold (μg m-3)
Relative cost vs AOT1-indicator
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 26 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The LEAQ Application - The Luxembourg Country: Scenario 2
The Luxembourg Country:Scenario 2: NOx sectoral emissions.
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
NO
xem
issi
ons
[t]
Expected AOT1
TransportResidentialOthers
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Upper AOT1
TransportResidentialOthers
Threshold (μg m-3) Threshold (μg m-3)Air Quality Air Quality
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 27 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
The LEAQ Application- The Luxembourg Region
The Luxembourg Region:NOx national emissions.
Daily average AOT40
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 28 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Conclusions part I
The AUSTAL2000-AYLTP has been developed andimplemented into LEAQ.The emission allocator has been developed andimplemented.The use of Lookup tables and production rates fastens themodel.The results of the AUSTAL2000-AYLTP model aresatisfactory for this modelling framework.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 29 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Conclusions part II
Luxembourg’s energy system has limited flexibility.Smaller sized countries like Luxembourg are moredependent on regional and international air quality policyplans.The convexity restriction imposed by the optimisationapproach limits the air quality model.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 30 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Future Work
Include new pollutants.The LEAQ policy results can be improved by increasing theimpacted period, and using other (yearly) air qualityindexes.Include exposure impacts (DALY) in the decision, startedin [Zachary, D. et al, 2011].
Further expansion into a cost-benefit analysis.Application in other urban areas.The LEAQ framework could be further augmented to beused as a spatial tool.
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 31 / 32
Developmentand
Applicationof a
DedicatedAir QualityModel
L. AleluiaReis
Introduction
IA Models
LEAQ
The AYLTPModule
AQ ModelResults
LEAQApplication
Conclusions
Thank you!
Thank you!
Financed by:
Development and Application of a Dedicated Air Quality Model L. Aleluia Reis FEEM 32 / 32