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Development of external Regeneration Models for FVS –
another wrench in the toolkit
Don RobinsonESSA TechnologiesVancouver, Canada
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Development History
• Alan Ager Umatilla National Forest
• Duncan Wilson, Doug Maguire OSU
• Nick Crookston Rocky Mountain Research Station
• Abdel-Azim Zumrawi BC Ministry of Forests and Range
• Valerie LeMay, Peter Marshall UBC
• ESSA Technologies Ltd. Vancouver, BC
A collaborative effort involving
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Have you noticed…
Despite over 30 years of development, new extensions and variants, there are very few full-featured regeneration models in FVS
Ferguson, Stage & Boyd 1986 For. Sci. Ferguson & Crookston 1984 INT 161 Ferguson & Crookston 1991 INT 279 Ferguson & Carlson 1993 INT 467
Why is that?
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Regeneration is a Hard Problem
• Inventory measured on-the-ground, not remotely• Can require numerous samples (12,000 :: 500)
• Disturbances may be slow, history may be fuzzy• Regen cues may be subtle, fine-scale, site specific• Regen may be delayed or stutter unevenly
Conceptual model development takes time
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Who Cares Anyway?
Past- emphasis on predicting timber values over single
rotation
Present – the times, they are a changing
- multiple ecosystem values- natural disturbances: insects, fire, disease- longer time periods
Future – the times, they are a changing; again
- complex, largely unknown relationships between climate, trees, disturbance, invasive species …
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What Are The Options?
1. Simple Manual
You are the all knowing expert: thin and plant
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What Are The Options?
2. Logical Conditions
You understand rules governing what will happen
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What Are The Options?
3. Complex rules
You use the Event Monitor to create a complex model
Duncan Wilson & Doug Maguire, OSU (2002)
• mimics Ferguson model: habitat types, site effects, level of disturbance; P(stocking), P(species x); predicts seedlings/ac
• implemented through Event Monitor keywords• >950 keyword lines for each stand in PPE• very hard to debug
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A New Approach
4. Create a “non-FVS” external model and use FVS to run it
• To drive the external model, create a new keyword in the Establishment family – AddTrees
• Text files pass information each way – ES1, ES2• Simplifies and localizes changes to FVS code• External model can be in any language; could be a
batch file, web-service, R-script …• 2 examples …
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A New Approach – Ex 1
Logistic-probabilistic model (Wilson & Maguire)
Patterned after the Ferguson model … predicts seedlings/ac• habitat types• site effects• intensity of harvest disturbance
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A New Approach – Ex 1
Input
Harvesting & thinning
Diameter, height growth
Mortality
Regeneration
Crown
Summary results
Parse user preferences
P(stocking)
Total regen stems
Number species
P(species x)
Regen stems species x
Constrain regeneration observations
Growthcycles
BM-FFE-PPE
BM-FFE-PPE Regeneration
Regeneration SystemBM-ESTAB
BM-FFE-PPE Regeneration ES1
ES2
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A New Approach – Ex 1
0 – years delay after Condition becomes true5 – years delay to schedule the activities (planting)1 – flag to indicate which set of information to pass
–
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A New Approach – Ex 1
*.ES1 – from FVS out to the external model
–
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A New Approach – Ex 1
*.ES2 – from the external model back to FVS
–
• uses pre-existing FVS code to process activity schedules
• 431 = NATURAL planting keyword … other values are the usual fields: date, species, stems/ac, etc.
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A New Approach – Ex 2
MSN – Regeneration database model(LeMay, Marshall, Zumrawi, Hassani, Froese, Lee, Lencar, Froese, Boisvenue)
• compare simulated stand after disturbance against a database of regeneration observed in actual disturbed stands
• canonical selection of closest match• assign matching stand’s regeneration• currently >1,000 sites, >36,000 regen measurements (2006)
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A New Approach – Ex 2
Input
Harvesting & thinning
Diameter, height growth
Mortality
Regeneration
Crown
Summary results
Parse user preferences
Query database
Construct current stand summary
Construct MSN input files
Run MSN – user preferences
Query database
Constrain regeneration observations
X-variables file
Y-variables file
MSN
For-use file
Fitting stats diagnostic output file
RegenerationDB
Growthcycles
PrognosisBC Version 3(SIBC3)
N regeneration
stand summaries
1- or k- plot regenerationobservations
PrognosisBC Regeneration
RegenerationDB
Regeneration SystemIB-ESTAB
PrognosisBC Regeneration ES1
ES2
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A New Approach – Ex 2
• slope position and site preparation• 0 – years delay to schedule the activities (planting)• 2 – flag to indicate which set of information to pass• program to call and arguments: location of db, location of
MSN, distance algorithm to use
–
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A New Approach – Ex 2
MSN input files are automatically generated and run; output files parsed; database is re-queried and results returned to FVS
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A New Approach – Ex 2
Challenges …
• Reconciliation of stand structure of selected stand with ‘known’ structure of modeled stand
• Change in stand structure between disturbance and later overstory inventory (snags, falldown, growth)
• Research team now looking for better prediction approaches … perhaps through linkage to a detailed process model that is sensitive to fine structure in the stand
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Challenges :: Opportunities
• Simpler models may gloss over details
• Development of conceptual models will always be iterative and messy
• Conceptual and empirical models are mutually dependent … what to measure, how to measure, when to measure
• Empirical models will still require substantial field work and validation
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Challenges :: Opportunities
• Interface between FVS and regeneration models is simple to create and requires only minor code changes in one file
• External regen model specs also modest – any program in any language that reads an input file of FVS state information and returns a file of planting (or other) activities in the expected format
• Prototyping is simple … FVS not required
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