Dr Sean Smyth
DIRECT MAIL TRENDS IN EUROPE
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Not another talk on Direct Mail – Oh No!
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AGENDA
The European advertising market
Mail volumes – addressed and door drops
European direct mail print projections
DM as part of Customer Communications Management
DM drivers
DM technology
DM ROI
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Who we serve
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Dr Sean Smyth
Printing technologist (Rexam – BroadPrint, Causton & McCorquodaleEnvelopes)
Smithers Pira consultant and analyst
Research and author “Future of Global Print Markets to 2020”
Journalist: Smithers Pira; WhatTheyThink; FlexoTech; Digital Labels & Packaging; RadTech; Ink World; PIA
Non-exec Director at printing companies – REAL Digital International
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One of the reasons for falling volumes
Make sure you get the right recipient
– do get the salutation right!
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A death-knell for DM?
E-commerce
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Definitions
Direct Mail
Part of advertising mix
Addressed personalised communication, mailed to recipient who has not requested the item – Smithers Pira data
Some also include unaddressed advertising – door drops, etc.
Competing with TV; Newspaper; Magazine; Radio; Outdoor; PoS; Internet and Mobile
Part of the Customer Communication Management
Along with On-line; e-mail; SMS text; social media
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Direct Mail printing market data
Constant 2015 value in €
compare regions, real changes excluding currency fluctuation and exchange rate variation
Value of printed products from print supplier
includes paper, design & prepress, data analytics where provided by print company
does NOT include postage
Printed volumes, equivalent A4 single prints, there is overprinting
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UPU, Smithers Pira
Addressed advertising mail
Million 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014CAGR (%), 2011-2014
Austria 702 692 690 635 581 -5.7Belgium 632 620 598 575 550 -3.9Bulgaria 15 9 4 5 6 -11.8Croatia 40 39 32 30 24 -15.3Cyprus 1 1 1 1 1 -6.6Czech Rep. 174 174 165 146 146 -5.7Denmark 109 96 85 75 67 -11.4Estonia 11 13 12 11 11 -6.2Finland 265 266 262 243 220 -6.1France 4,312 4,238 3,904 3,618 3,230 -8.7Germany 6,074 6,123 5,869 5,470 5,129 -5.7Greece 62 50 45 39 39 -8.2Hungary 25 37 36 48 59 17.5Ireland 28 23 21 20 17 -10.2Italy 1,142 1,139 930 812 770 -12.2Latvia 5 4 3 3 4 1.9Lithuania 3 3 3 2 2 -14.6Luxembourg 33 33 32 32 32 -1.5Malta 1 1 0 1 1 -9.4Netherlands 1,180 1,095 997 848 757 -11.6Norway 381 391 372 360 347 -3.9Poland 144 133 122 164 204 15.3Portugal 135 120 101 87 76 -14.3Romania 9 7 5 4 3 -22.9Slovakia 30 26 22 23 42 17.3Slovenia 77 78 73 65 67 -5.2Spain 773 712 640 577 545 -8.5Sweden 388 375 357 345 333 -3.9Switzerland 1,107 1,077 1,101 1,094 1,087 0.3UK 5,536 5,242 5,078 4,667 4,603 -4.2Total 23,397 22,818 21,560 20,003 18,953 -6.0
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Smithers Pira, UPU/ELMA
Door drop volumes
Country 2011 2012 2013 2014CAGR (%), 2011-2014
Austria 3,800 3,600 3,316 3,032 -7.2Belgium 881 850 742 681 -8.2Bulgaria 95 81 61 29 -32.9Croatia 28 44 59 67 34.0Cyprus 7 4 3 3 -29.6Czech Rep. 1,757 1,903 1,954 1,675 -1.6Denmark 1,319 1,163 1,036 917 -11.4Estonia 148 162 193 199 10.5Finland 848 1,031 1,188 791 -2.3France 6,355 5,733 5,313 4,743 -9.3Germany 4,105 4,197 4,281 4,394 2.3Greece 6 5 5 5 -8.2Hungary 625 784 800 810 9.0Ireland 123 140 164 159 8.9Italy 616 535 500 479 -8.0Latvia 99 88 44 36 -28.4Lithuania 104 74 77 72 -11.5Luxembourg 48 44 53 42 -4.0Malta 20 24 28 32 17.9Netherlands 12,000 11,000 9,000 7,900 -13.0Norway 2,050 1,951 1,889 1,822 -3.9Poland 268 284 296 248 -2.6Portugal 541 517 529 508 -2.1Romania 12 50 51 79 84.8Slovakia 168 181 273 271 17.3Slovenia 651 599 574 583 -3.6Spain 2,523 2,354 2,294 2,191 -4.6Sweden 1,967 1,872 1,812 1,748 -3.9Switzerland 1,257 1,902 1,934 1,990 16.5UK 3,474 4,010 3,769 3,738 2.5Total 45,896 45,182 42,237 39,243 -5.1
Door drops (million) 2010 2012 2014
Households (million)
Weekly drops per household
Germany 19,901 25,000 28,802 30.7 18
France 19,109 23,199 20,964 23.6 17
Netherlands 11,584 10,911 10,938 5.8 36
Italy 7,921 11,970 8,203 26.2 6
UK 7,822 7,097 6,016 28.8 4
Belgium 5,149 4,661 4,557 4.4 20
Austria 4,257 4,237 4,193 3.1 26
Spain 4,851 3,919 3,646 11.7 6
Poland 3,663 3,708 3,646 14.0 5
Sweden 3,168 2,860 2,734 3.1 17
Hungary 3,960 2,542 2,734 4.4 12
Czech Rep. 3,861 3,814n/a n/a n/a
Denmark 2,970 2,542 2,188 1.8 23
Norway 2,178 2,013 1,823 1.1 31
Switzerland 1,188 1,801 1,823 1.8 19
Finland 1,782 2,013 1,641 2.1 15
Slovakia 0 1,377 1,458 2.2 13
Portugal 1,683 1,589 1,276 3.5 7
Greece 1,089 953n/a n/a n/a
Romania 891 742 8,203 78.7 2
Croatia 0 636 729 1.3 11
Ireland 111 140 159 1.5 2
Total above 107,141 117,725 115,732 249.8 9
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Mail volumes
UPU
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European direct mail printing
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DM drivers
Its all about responses and returns
ROI = new customers, increased customer loyalty, greater lifetime value
Better targeting
Better analytics
Better design
Better offers
End-user preferences and experiences
Multi-channel - Mobile
Cost – data, printing, postage
Measurable returns
Better customer communication management
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European postage rates
Deutsche Post – Letter Prices in Europe, March 2017
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Changing print methods
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Changing DM technology
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White paper solutions
Flexible design – full variability = more targeted offer
Single pass, no stock reels with associated waste and potential redundancy
Easier than litho printing with continuous toner lettershop
Lower cost (dependent on run length and ink coverage)
Mailing flexibility – mix jobs in software to minimise residuals
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Single piece mailers
Lower cost than lettershop and inserting
No matching problems
Simpler product – but can be sophisticated paper engineering
Generally lower responses
Stable volumes growing market share
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The reality
Multi-channel marketing
Agencies focus on new, hi-tech marketing
Millennials are digital, connected world natives
E-mail is very low cost – low responses can pay
Much development work in targeted on-line ads
Loyalty through facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.
Many apocryphal claims of high responses through co-ordinated multi-channel approaches
BEWARE THE CLAIMS!
Some agencies have few print skills – they need help
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Times change, of course
2000 2017
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On-line has issues
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Do Your Customers Know This?
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Good content works
Make it relevant to the recipient
Make it engaging
Make it interesting
Make it intriguing
Don’t send to the wrong people
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Innovation in Direct Mail
Is anything new after many, many years of DM?
Don’t repeat the same errors
Be bold – delight your customers
I want 150,000 mailers for a new car launch
How would you do it?
– maybe like Classic Color, ($10m t/o print Co in Chicago)
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Outlook for direct mail in Europe
Continuing falls in volume going forward
Growth in value to the provider – partially by new services:
Big Data and analytics
Better targeting
Better, flexible design
Minimising postage cost (maximising discounts)
Multi-channel campaigns
Demonstrate the ROI – boost responses and ROI
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Thank you for your attention
Dr Sean Smyth – Print Consultant
Smithers Pira
Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU UK
Phone: +44 1372 802113
www.smitherspira.com
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