Disaster by Management:Disaster by Management:International Drug Cartels and International Drug Cartels and
the North State National Forest Landsthe North State National Forest Lands
Eugenie RovaiEugenie Rovai, CSU Chico, CSU Chico
Christine M. RodrigueChristine M. Rodrigue, CSU Long Beach, CSU Long Beachwith the assistance ofwith the assistance of
Janna WaligorskiJanna Waligorski, CSU Chico, CSU Chico
National Social Science AssociationNational Social Science Association
October 2007October 2007
Disaster by Management: Previous WorkDisaster by Management: Previous Work
NASA and the NASA and the Columbia accidentColumbia accident
FBI and 9/11FBI and 9/11 FEMA and KatrinaFEMA and Katrina
Disaster by Management: OverviewDisaster by Management: Overview
Disaster can result from the interaction of dangerous Disaster can result from the interaction of dangerous situations and institutional structuressituations and institutional structures Risk assessment messages are diluted and distorted as they Risk assessment messages are diluted and distorted as they
move up a managerial chain of command (telephone game)move up a managerial chain of command (telephone game)
They compete with other concerns at each level, which may They compete with other concerns at each level, which may seem more immediate and compelling to managersseem more immediate and compelling to managers
The structure of the institution affects message dilution: The structure of the institution affects message dilution: Each layer in a bureaucracy is an additional message filterEach layer in a bureaucracy is an additional message filter
““Getting away” with risky situations not turning into actual Getting away” with risky situations not turning into actual disasters (yet) can normalize anomaly, creating a blind spot disasters (yet) can normalize anomaly, creating a blind spot
Disaster by Management: ElementsDisaster by Management: Elements
Managers’ dilemma: Type I and Type II errorsManagers’ dilemma: Type I and Type II errors Risk messages from below contain uncertaintiesRisk messages from below contain uncertainties How does a manager balance uncertain risks and costs?How does a manager balance uncertain risks and costs?
Overreacting to a danger incurs direct and opportunity costs Overreacting to a danger incurs direct and opportunity costs Underestimating a serious danger to save resources can kill or injure Underestimating a serious danger to save resources can kill or injure
people and destroy propertypeople and destroy property
De minimisDe minimis principle principle versusversus the precautionary principle the precautionary principle How does the manager’s How does the manager’s managermanager balance these? balance these?
Disaster by Management: ElementsDisaster by Management: Elements
Managerial contextManagerial context ““Managerialism” – belief that private sector management Managerialism” – belief that private sector management
practices can improve cost efficiency in public sectorpractices can improve cost efficiency in public sector Cost pressures bias managers toward Cost pressures bias managers toward de minimisde minimis principles, principles,
dulling the urgency of risk messagesdulling the urgency of risk messages Normal accident theoryNormal accident theory
Accidents are inevitable in large, complex systems and in Accidents are inevitable in large, complex systems and in large, complex organizational structureslarge, complex organizational structures
Once disaster begins, events cascade in unpredictable ways Once disaster begins, events cascade in unpredictable ways and at speeds too great for humans to processand at speeds too great for humans to process
Disaster by Management: ElementsDisaster by Management: Elements
Institutional organizationInstitutional organization Multiple chains of command (functional or Multiple chains of command (functional or
institutional)institutional) Hierarchy can create timidity in pushing a risk message: Hierarchy can create timidity in pushing a risk message:
Risk assessment ranks lower than risk managementRisk assessment ranks lower than risk management ““Firewalls” between “stovepipes” may lose messagesFirewalls” between “stovepipes” may lose messages
Geographical organizationGeographical organization Spatiality implies hierarchy: HQ Spatiality implies hierarchy: HQ vs.vs. district offices district offices Messages originating in local or regional offices may be Messages originating in local or regional offices may be
weakened by lower status of their geographical originweakened by lower status of their geographical origin
Disaster by Management: OutcomesDisaster by Management: Outcomes
Local staff may be aware of a dangerLocal staff may be aware of a danger They may be unsure whom to notifyThey may be unsure whom to notify They may be reluctant to argue with a distracted superiorThey may be reluctant to argue with a distracted superior
Managers have a wide array of concernsManagers have a wide array of concerns Risk messages diluted among these other concernsRisk messages diluted among these other concerns Dilution greater the more levels there are Dilution greater the more levels there are Managers may have to prefer Managers may have to prefer de minimisde minimis over precautionary over precautionary
approaches because of cost (and ideological) constraintsapproaches because of cost (and ideological) constraints Upshot: Risk messages in bureaucracies may not Upshot: Risk messages in bureaucracies may not
trigger effective action until major tragedy strikestrigger effective action until major tragedy strikes
Disaster by Management: ProspectsDisaster by Management: Prospects
Is a potential “disaster by management” unfolding in the Is a potential “disaster by management” unfolding in the remote mountains of California?remote mountains of California?
International drug cartels respond to more border securityInternational drug cartels respond to more border security Large wilderness marijuana farms in National Forests and Parks Large wilderness marijuana farms in National Forests and Parks The cartels are violent, and their crews are heavily armedThe cartels are violent, and their crews are heavily armed
Consequences:Consequences: Confrontation between growers and backpackers, campers, Confrontation between growers and backpackers, campers,
hikers, riders, hunters, and fishers a growing dangerhikers, riders, hunters, and fishers a growing danger Significant environmental damage to groundwater, surface Significant environmental damage to groundwater, surface
water, slope stability, vegetation, and wildlife habitatwater, slope stability, vegetation, and wildlife habitat
2006 Plant Seizures in National Forests
Source: http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/shastatrinity/
Shift in Location to Public Lands
Source: http://caag.state.ca.us
Trends in Garden Size on Public Lands in Northern California
Compiled from articles in several newspapers, NPR, and interviews, 1993-2007
Whiskeytown National Recreation AreaWhiskeytown National Recreation Area
36 miles of shoreline 750 plant species 42,497 acres of land 3,200 acre lake 160 bird species 62 mammal species 8 (at least) marijuana gardens
raided in the past year 1,133,561 plants seized in
2006 (Shasta-Trinity NF)
Jurisdictions in Jurisdictions in Study AreaStudy Area
Whiskeytown-Shasta-Whiskeytown-Shasta-Trinity National Trinity National Recreation AreaRecreation Area U.S. Forest Service U.S. Forest Service
administers Shasta and administers Shasta and Trinity unitsTrinity units
National Park Service National Park Service administers Whiskeytown administers Whiskeytown UnitUnit
A Selection of Recent A Selection of Recent Park Closures and ShootingsPark Closures and Shootings
September 11, 2007 -- San Bernardino County Sheriff’s deputies and U.S. Forest Service personnel get into gunfight with three armed growers near Lytle Creek, killing one of them
August 31, 2007 -- A significant portion of Whiskeytown NRA closes for visitor safety due to the possibility that a grower armed with a shotgun is at large.
August 7, 2001 -- Sequoia National Park -- Roads closed to traffic due to gun shots heard during a garden raid
Drugs, Seeds, and BulletsDrugs, Seeds, and Bullets
Armed crews live with the plants for monthsArmed crews live with the plants for months Undocumented labor force brought in by cartels, left in Undocumented labor force brought in by cartels, left in
isolation, and provisioned periodically from burlap bags left isolation, and provisioned periodically from burlap bags left at pre-arranged pickup pointsat pre-arranged pickup points
Source: redding.com
Environmental Damage: PVC, Trash, Environmental Damage: PVC, Trash, Chemicals, LeadChemicals, Lead
Source: redding.com
Water Flow Disruption and ContaminationWater Flow Disruption and Contamination Diversions: channels, pipes, dams, poolsDiversions: channels, pipes, dams, pools Terracing of steep slopes and trail buildingTerracing of steep slopes and trail building Human waste and chemicalsHuman waste and chemicals Results: Results:
Chemical pollution downstreamChemical pollution downstream Fish kills downstreamFish kills downstream Slope instability/erosionSlope instability/erosion Aggradation/turbidity downstreamAggradation/turbidity downstream
Source: redding.com
Impacts on Vegetation and WildlifeImpacts on Vegetation and Wildlife Introduction of invasive exotic species on shoes and soilIntroduction of invasive exotic species on shoes and soil Killing and trimming of native trees for more lightKilling and trimming of native trees for more light Poaching of bears and deer for food, safety, recreationPoaching of bears and deer for food, safety, recreation
Source: B. Alberti, NPS
Cultural EvidenceCultural Evidence International drug cartels, largely from MexicoInternational drug cartels, largely from Mexico Smuggling labor instead of bulky marijuanaSmuggling labor instead of bulky marijuana Periodic provisioning mostly from local Wal-Marts, Periodic provisioning mostly from local Wal-Marts,
Costcos: plastic bags, Gatorade, Marlboro, Spam, Costcos: plastic bags, Gatorade, Marlboro, Spam, Budweiser, Hostess Cupcakes, …Budweiser, Hostess Cupcakes, …
Shrines to San Judas Tadeo, patron saint of difficult Shrines to San Judas Tadeo, patron saint of difficult and desperate situationsand desperate situations
Source: redding.com, fresnobeehive.com,& freewebs.com/sanjudastadeo
Plants Being Processed on SitePlants Being Processed on Site Laborers paid when crop collectedLaborers paid when crop collected September and October see a ramping up of September and October see a ramping up of
weaponry as the cartels come in to collect the weaponry as the cartels come in to collect the harvested and processed crop and the workersharvested and processed crop and the workers
Source: redding.com
Plants and Camps CamouflagedPlants and Camps Camouflaged
Remote Sensing: Remote Sensing: Cutting through the Cutting through the Camouflage?Camouflage?
Rarely explored and little Rarely explored and little applied for cost-effective applied for cost-effective detectiondetection
Hyperspectral imaging can Hyperspectral imaging can pick out:pick out: MarijuanaMarijuana IrrigationIrrigation DisturbanceDisturbance
Source: US Department of Justice
Source: US Geological Survey
Ad hocAd hoc “Management” at the Local Level “Management” at the Local Level
Source: redding.com
Disaster by Management? DiscussionDisaster by Management? Discussion
Competing chains of command: Law enforcement won’t share information with US Forest
Service and National Park Service (concern is tipping hand to cartels)
Impediment to effective land management: prescribed burning, habitat restoration, public education activities
USFS or NPS report gardens to law enforcement, which then stops all FS and PS activities, wiping out pre-planning and wasting resources
Disaster by Management? DiscussionDisaster by Management? Discussion
Stovepiping of information: Preventing predictive modelling by researchers using remote
sensing and GIS that would benefit both law enforcement and land management
Puts public at risk, an ironic outcome Concern for not tipping off cartels allows cartels to continue using
areas of high public interest and use Without the FS and PS knowing about the cartels’ activities, they
can’t target warnings to the public
Disaster by Management? DiscussionDisaster by Management? Discussion
Dilution of information: There is persistent reportage Local law enforcement and local districts of the FS and PS
are dealing with it, if at cross-purposes, by reassignment of their activities within their budgetary and staffing constraints
Federal entities express awareness (e.g., White House), but little concerted activity
Little public outcry and, so, other concerns at all levels have hindered effective response
Tragedies do occur, but these deaths and injuries are in small numbers not likely to amplify public concern and political response (analogy: car deaths versus plane crash deaths)
Disaster by Management? ConclusionDisaster by Management? Conclusion
The public is in danger, as are its common resources There is potential for the kinds of drug violence seen in parts of
Colombia and Mexico Environmental damage is serious, sustained, and expanding in
magnitude on our public lands The cartels’ geography is expanding to the north and east: This
is quickly becoming a national problem Delaying a unified national response may result in the problem
scaling beyond any possibility of management
This and related papers can be accessed at:http://www.csulb.edu/~rodrigue/research.html#disbymgt
For More InformationFor More Informationhttp://www.csulb.edu/~rodrigue/research.html
C.M. Rodrigue. 2006. Katrina/Rita and risk communication within FEMA. Paper presented to the Association of American Geographers, Chicago (March).
http://ag.ca.gov/bne/camp.php Office of the Attorney General, State of California, Department of Justice, Bureau of Narcotic Enforcment.
2007. Campaign Against Marijuana Planting (CAMP).
http://www.usdoj.gov/ndic/pubs10/10402/Department of Justice, National Drug Intelligence Center. 2005. Marijuana and methamphetamine trafficking on
Federal lands threat assessment. Remote Sensing of Environment 64: 192-201.
http://www.fs.fed.us/congress/108/house/oversight/gaffrey/101003.htmlGaffey, Art (Forest Supervisor, Sequoia National Forest). 2003. Statement before the US House of
Representatives.
http://www.sciencedirect.comDaughtry, C. and Walthall, C. 1998. Spectral discrimination of Cannabis sativa L. leaves and canopies. Remote
Sensing of Environment 64: 192-201.
http://web.redding.com/specials/Hidden_Harvest/Redding Record Searchlight. 2006. Hidden harvest. Special series of stories on marijuana farming in
California’s North State.
http://www.surfaceoptics.comSurface Optics Corporation. 2007. Hyperspectral imaging, hyperspectral applications, marijuana/cannabis
detection.