Transcript
- 1. Distressed Market Outlook When will distress return to normal levels and what are the biggest remaining risks to housing recovery?
- 2. What Well Cover A bit of background Normal and not-so-normal foreclosure trends Convoluted foreclosure timelines Zombie foreclosures and occupied REOs Distressed sales Underwater risk Home sales and price trends NPLs and other possible market risks
- 3. Almost Back to Normal June 2014 at lowest level since July 2006
- 4. Not so normal 15 states with annual increases in foreclosure starts in July
- 5. Not so normal California REOs up for fourth consecutive month in July
- 6. Taking Longer to Foreclose National average at 577 days, record high
- 7. Mass Confusion
- 8. Zombie Foreclosures
- 9. Zombie Foreclosures About 150,000 zombies nationwide
- 10. Zombie Foreclosures
- 11. Occupied REOs Nationwide 51 percent of REOs are occupied, nearly 230,000.
- 12. Distressed Sales Declining
- 13. REO Sales Rebounding REO share of sales in July up from year ago in 22 out of 101 major U.S. housing markets.
- 14. Foreclosure Auction Sales Soaring Still less than 1.5 percent of all U.S. home sales
- 15. Underwater Risk 9.1 million homes with 125 percent equity or more 17 percent of all U.S. homes with mortgage 34 percent of U.S. homes in foreclosure with some equity
- 16. Underwater Risk
- 17. Home Prices Bouncing Higher U.S. median home price at highest level since September 2008
- 18. Peak-Trough Perspective Home prices now 35 percent above trough But still 20 percent below previous peak.
- 19. A Cold Shower for Hot Home Prices Price appreciation slowing compared to year ago in 65 percent of U.S. markets
- 20. Turning Down the Sales Volume Three consecutive months with annual decreases to lowest level since September 2012
- 21. NPL Sales More than 70,000 NPLs sold by FHA alone between 2010 and 2013
- 22. NPL Sales Backed by properties worth a cumulative $9.6 billion
- 23. Opposite Directions
- 24. NPLs delaying foreclosure?
- 25. NPLs delaying foreclosure?
- 26. Other Risks HELOCs 16 million outstanding $79 billion coming due in next few years Resetting HAMP loan mods More than 775,000 coming to end of government subsidized period this year Typical increase expected to be $197 for monthly payments