Do Developed or Developing Do Developed or Developing Countries Emit More Carbon Countries Emit More Carbon
Dioxide Into the Atmosphere?Dioxide Into the Atmosphere?
A Data Management Culminating A Data Management Culminating Project Presentation Project Presentation
by Mathew Hall, Dr. G.W. Williams by Mathew Hall, Dr. G.W. Williams S.S. S.S.
Aurora, OntarioAurora, Ontario
Thesis StatementThesis Statement
As the indicating factors of a country’s As the indicating factors of a country’s development increase, that country development increase, that country will emit more carbon dioxide into the will emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere because of increased atmosphere because of increased motor vehicle transportation, energy motor vehicle transportation, energy consumption, and urbanization.consumption, and urbanization.
Background Background InformationInformation
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO(CO22))• Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the Earth’s AtmosphereCarbon dioxide is an essential gas in the Earth’s Atmosphere• It is classified as a “greenhouse gas”It is classified as a “greenhouse gas”• Greenhouse gasses trap the suns radiation in the atmosphere, maintaining the Greenhouse gasses trap the suns radiation in the atmosphere, maintaining the
temperature of the Earthtemperature of the Earth
• Carbon dioxide is second to water vapor as the leading greenhouse gas in the Carbon dioxide is second to water vapor as the leading greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere (Greenhouse Gas 2005)atmosphere (Greenhouse Gas 2005) • Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 31% since 1895 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 31% since 1895 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) • One tonne of carbon burned One tonne of carbon burned 3.7 tonnes of CO 3.7 tonnes of CO2 2 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004)
• 22 billion tonnes of fossil fuels are burned each year (The Greenhouse Gasses 22 billion tonnes of fossil fuels are burned each year (The Greenhouse Gasses
2004)2004)
Climate Change• 20th Century has had the warmest global temperature in 1000 years (The Greenhouse Gasses)
• Increased temperatures cause: polar ice caps melting, increased sea level, animal habitats being destroyed, erosion of island shores, drought, and more common heat waves (Understanding Climate Change 2004)
• General scientific consensus is that increased levels of CO2 are the cause of the Increase in global temperatures (Understanding Climate Change 2004)
• Carbon dioxide has not been proven to be the cause, this is only an accepted theory (Understanding Climate Change 2004)
Developed vs. Developing Developed vs. Developing CountriesCountries
• No real scale to judge developmentNo real scale to judge development• World Bank states that a country with GDP per World Bank states that a country with GDP per
capita of under $6000 US is developing capita of under $6000 US is developing (development- categorizing countries 2005)(development- categorizing countries 2005)
• United Nations uses different indicators such as: United Nations uses different indicators such as: life expectancy, literacy rate, enrolment in schools, life expectancy, literacy rate, enrolment in schools, urban population levels and GDP per capita urban population levels and GDP per capita (development- categorizing countries 2005)(development- categorizing countries 2005)
• In General:In General:Developed Countries Developed Countries - higher GDP - higher GDP
- more urban - more urban populationpopulation
AnalysisAnalysis
Causes of COCauses of CO22 Emissions Emissions
• Fuel Fuel combustion combustion accounts for accounts for the greatest the greatest proportion of proportion of COCO22 emissions emissions
• There is an There is an extremely extremely strong linear strong linear correlation correlation between total between total fuel emissions fuel emissions and COand CO22 emissionsemissions
Sources of CO2 emissions
Fuel Combustion
Fugitive Emissionsfrom Fuels Industrial Processes
Solvent and OtherProduct Use Agriculture
Land-Use Change &Forestry Waste
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
co2
em
iss
ion
s
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000totalfuelemissions
co2emissions = 1.01totalfuelemissions + 3300; r^2 = 1.00
Fuel combustion and co2 emission data 2000 Scatter Plot
96%
Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Percentage of Total Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions by Sector
39%
19%
27%
14%1%
Energy Industries
Manufacturing Industriesand Construction
Transport
Other Sectors
Other
• The two greatest contributors to fuel combustion CO2 emissions are transportation and energy industries
TransportationTransportation
Gasoline Consumption vs. CO2 Emissions
y = 13.12x + 76278
R2 = 0.7744
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000
Gasoline Consumption (millions of liters)
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f m
etr
ic t
on
ne
s)
• Fairly strong correlation between gasoline consumption and Fairly strong correlation between gasoline consumption and COCO22 emissions emissions
• Inference: Countries that consume more gasoline will emit Inference: Countries that consume more gasoline will emit more COmore CO22
20
40
60
80
100
Co
un
t
100000 200000 300000 400000 500000millionsoflitersgasconsumption
millionsoflitersgasconsumption mean = 14698.5millionsoflitersgasconsumption median = 2067.4
Motor Gasoline Consumption-Developed Countries Histogram
10
20
30
40
50
60
Co
un
t
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000millionsoflitersgasconsumption
millionsoflitersgasconsumption mean = 3142.57millionsoflitersgasconsumption median = 585.75
Motor Gasoline Consumption- Developing Countries Histogram
• Developed countries consume more gasoline, on Developed countries consume more gasoline, on average, than developing countriesaverage, than developing countries
• Developed countries consume 2.5 times more Developed countries consume 2.5 times more gasolinegasoline
• Thesis is supportedThesis is supported
Units : Millions of Liters of Gas
Energy IndustriesEnergy IndustriesTotal CO2 Emissions vs. Total Energy Consumption
y = 2562.1x - 23378
R2 = 0.9883
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Total Energy Consum ption (tonnes of oil equivalent)
To
tal C
O2
Em
issi
on
s (t
ho
usa
nd
s o
f M
etri
c T
on
nes
)
• Very strong positive correlation between COVery strong positive correlation between CO22 emissions and emissions and total energy consumptiontotal energy consumption
• 99% of the variation in CO99% of the variation in CO22 emissions result from variations emissions result from variations in energy consumptionin energy consumption
• Inference: Countries that consume more energy will emit Inference: Countries that consume more energy will emit more COmore CO22
Energy ConsumptionEnergy Consumption
• Developed countries consume twice as much Developed countries consume twice as much energy as developing countries on averageenergy as developing countries on average
• Developed countries are relatively inconsistent in Developed countries are relatively inconsistent in total energy consumptiontotal energy consumption
• Thesis is supportedThesis is supported
Co
un
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
energyconsumption200000 400000 600000 800000
energyconsumption mean = 69867.9energyconsumption median = 24471.5
Developed no outliers Histogram
Co
un
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
energyconsumption0 40000 80000 120000 160000 200000
energyconsumption mean = 27951.2energyconsumption median = 10253
Developing no outliers HistogramUnits: Thousand metric tonnes of oil equivalent
σ :Developed Countries – 123896 Developing Countries - 41783
AnalysisAnalysis
Urbanization and COUrbanization and CO22 EmissionsEmissions
Total Urban Population vs. Gasoline Consumption
y = 0.9038x + 2533.8
R2 = 0.5722
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Total Urban Population (thousands of people)
Gas
oli
ne
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
mil
lio
ns
of
lite
rs)
Total Energy Consumption vs. Total Urban Population
y = 0.0185x - 121.46
R2 = 0.8741
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Total Urban Population (thousands)
To
tal E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
(to
nn
es o
f o
il eq
uiv
alen
t)• Urban population has Urban population has
a weak positive a weak positive correlation with correlation with gasoline consumptiongasoline consumption
• Inference: Countries Inference: Countries with more urban with more urban populations don’t populations don’t necessarily consume necessarily consume more gasolinemore gasoline
• Urban population has Urban population has a strong correlation a strong correlation with energy with energy consumptionconsumption
• Inference: Countries Inference: Countries with more urban with more urban population will population will consume more consume more energyenergy
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs. Total Urban Population
y = 8.7483x + 302754
R2 = 0.3415
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Total Urban Population (thousands of people)
To
tal C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e
Em
iss
ion
s (
tho
us
an
d m
etr
ic
ton
ne
s)
• Urban population has a very weak correlation with COUrban population has a very weak correlation with CO22 emissions emissions• Inference: Having more of an urban population will not result in Inference: Having more of an urban population will not result in
more COmore CO22 emissions emissions
Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Urban Population
R2=0.87
R2=0.99
R2=0.34
Strong
Strong
WEAK
Co
un
t
10
20
30
40
50
urbanpopulation0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
urbanpopulation mean = 15484.3urbanpopulation median = 4123
Developed country's urban population Histogram
Co
un
t
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
urbanpopulation0 100000 200000 300000 400000
urbanpopulation mean = 12089urbanpopulation median = 1687.5
Developing Country's urban population Histogram
IQR: Developed Countries – 8387 Developing Countries - 5816
• Developed Countries have greater urban Developed Countries have greater urban population values than developing onespopulation values than developing ones
• Developing countries have more consistency in Developing countries have more consistency in urban population valuesurban population values
• Thesis is not supported as urban population has Thesis is not supported as urban population has little impact on COlittle impact on CO22 emissions emissions
AnalysisAnalysis
Overall Carbon Dioxide Overall Carbon Dioxide EmissionsEmissions
Total COTotal CO22 Emissions Emissions
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Co
un
t
1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000CO2emissions
CO2emissions mean = 129128CO2emissions median = 8862
World CO2 emissions Histogram
10
20
30
40
50
Co
un
t
1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000co2emissions
co2emissions mean = 276973co2emissions median = 51321
developed countries Histogram
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Cou
nt
1000000 2000000 3000000co2emissions
co2emissions mean = 70297.2co2emissions median = 3649
developing countries Histogram
• Developed countries’ CO2 emissions are higher than the world median, developing countries’ emissions are lower than the median
• Developing countries are more consistent in CO2 emission values
•Thesis is supported
IQR - 159925
IQR - 29278
Units: thousand metric tonnes
2
4
6
8
10
12
Co
un
t
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22CO2percapita
co2percapita median = 7.48co2percapita mean = 7.52774
Developed co2 per capita Histogram
20
40
60
80
100
120
Co
un
t
10 20 30 40 50 60co2percapita
co2percapita mean = 3.16147co2percapita median = 1.03
developing co2per capita Histogram
• Developed Countries emit more CODeveloped Countries emit more CO22 per capita on per capita on average; approximately 700% more per personaverage; approximately 700% more per person
• Developed countries are more inconsistent in CODeveloped countries are more inconsistent in CO22 per capita, and it’s distribution is more “balanced”per capita, and it’s distribution is more “balanced”
• Thesis is ultimately supportedThesis is ultimately supported
IQR: Developed Countries – 5.26 Developing Countries – 2.69
Units: Metric tonnes of CO2 per person
Developed vs. Developing Countries’ Developed vs. Developing Countries’ COCO22 Emissions From 1950 to 2000 Emissions From 1950 to 2000
Developed vs. Developing Countries Total CO2 Emissions
5377722 6554339 76617069584937
12017244 13247248 14620761 14484808 14985819 14129761 14679545410954
7011021488946
1477403
22594192898051
4005973 48840526283263 8079069
9268499
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
To
tal C
O2
Em
iss
ion
s (
tho
us
an
ds
of
me
tric
to
nn
es
)
developed countries developing countries
• Developed countries have had a greater proportion Developed countries have had a greater proportion of total COof total CO22 emissions since 1950 emissions since 1950
• The proportion of developed countries’ COThe proportion of developed countries’ CO22 emissions has been decreasing over time since 1950emissions has been decreasing over time since 1950
• Thesis is tentatively supportedThesis is tentatively supported
AnalysisAnalysis
GDP and COGDP and CO22 Emissions Emissions
Mexican CO2 Emissions vs. GDP in Millions of US Dollars
y = 0.681x - 20755
R2 = 0.9823
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
GDP (m illions of US dollars)
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(th
ou
san
ds
of
met
ric
ton
nes
)
Peru Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs. GDP
y = 0.4304x - 448.97
R2 = 0.9696
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
GDP (millions of US dollars)C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e E
mis
sio
ns
(th
ou
san
d m
etri
c to
nn
es)
Mexican Total GDP and Total CO2 Emissions From 1950 to 1992
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Year
Val
ue
GDP (millions of US dollars) CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric tonnes)
Peru Carbon Dioxide Emissions and GDP from 1950 to1992
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
Year
Va
lue
GDP (millions of US dollars)
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (thousand metric tonnes)
• GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions mirror that increase
•Very strong correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions
•Inference: In developing countries, increases in GDP will parallel increases in CO2 emissions
•Thesis is supported
Examples of Developing CountriesExamples of Developing Countries
Examples of Developed CountriesExamples of Developed Countries
France CO2 Emissions vs. GDP
y = 0.3188x + 215434
R2 = 0.5227
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
GDP (millions of US dollars)C
O2
Em
iss
ion
s (
tho
us
an
ds
of
me
tric
ton
ne
s)
France GDP and CO2 Emissions from 1950-1992
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
Year
Va
lue
GDP (in millions of US dollars)
CO2 Emissions (thousands metric tonnes)
•GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions do not mirror that increase
•Much weaker correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions
•Inference: In developed countries, increases in GDP do not parallel increases in CO2 emissions
•Thesis is not supported
Germany CO2 Emissions and GDP from 1971 to 2000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
Year
Va
lue
GDP (millions of US dollars)
CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric tonnes)
Germany CO2 Emissions vs. GDP
R2 = 0.7183
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
0 500000 1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
GDP (m illions of US dollars)
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f
me
tric
to
nn
es
)
What Are Some Possible Answers What Are Some Possible Answers for the Trends in Developed for the Trends in Developed Countries’ COCountries’ CO22 Emissions? Emissions?
• Increased use of “clean” fuels in Increased use of “clean” fuels in developed countriesdeveloped countries
• France is a world leader in the use of France is a world leader in the use of nuclear power, use less and less fossil nuclear power, use less and less fossil fuels each year (Earthtrends 2005)fuels each year (Earthtrends 2005)
• Germany demolished soviet power plants Germany demolished soviet power plants which produced enormous amounts of COwhich produced enormous amounts of CO22 ((O’Ronian 2005)O’Ronian 2005)
• Kyoto protocol signed in 1997 Kyoto protocol signed in 1997 (Kyoto (Kyoto Protocol 2005)Protocol 2005)
ConclusionsConclusions• Gasoline consumption and energy consumption have strong Gasoline consumption and energy consumption have strong
correlations with COcorrelations with CO22 emissions emissions• Developed countries consume more gasoline and energy than Developed countries consume more gasoline and energy than
developing countries, on averagedeveloping countries, on average• Although urban population levels have a strong correlation with Although urban population levels have a strong correlation with
energy industries, it has a weak correlation with COenergy industries, it has a weak correlation with CO22 emissions emissions• The fact that developed countries have greater urban population The fact that developed countries have greater urban population
levels does not have any effect on COlevels does not have any effect on CO22 emission levels emission levels• Developed countries emit more total CODeveloped countries emit more total CO22 and CO and CO22 per capita per capita
than developing countriesthan developing countries• The proportion of COThe proportion of CO22 emissions developed countries are emissions developed countries are
accounting for is decreasing over timeaccounting for is decreasing over time• Developing countries have strong correlations between GDP and Developing countries have strong correlations between GDP and
COCO22 emissions emissions• Developed countries have weak correlations between GDP and Developed countries have weak correlations between GDP and
COCO22 emissions emissions • In many developed countries GDP increases while COIn many developed countries GDP increases while CO22 emissions emissions
stay the same or decline, developing countries have increases in stay the same or decline, developing countries have increases in both variablesboth variables
Final ThoughtsFinal Thoughts
• Developed countries are the focus for Developed countries are the focus for reducing COreducing CO22 emissions emissions
• Presently, this is an effective course Presently, this is an effective course of action- developed countries emit of action- developed countries emit more total COmore total CO22
• In the future more attention must be In the future more attention must be paid to developing countries, as they paid to developing countries, as they may come to surpass developed may come to surpass developed countries if trends continuecountries if trends continue
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<http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/development/dev<http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/development/development_categorising_countries.htm>.elopment_categorising_countries.htm>.
• Earthtrends Energy and Resources- FranceEarthtrends Energy and Resources- France. 22 December 2005. . 22 December 2005. <http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_250.<http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_250.pdf>pdf>
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• O'Ronain, Miceal. O'Ronain, Miceal. The German Kyoto Protocol HoaxThe German Kyoto Protocol Hoax. 17 December . 17 December 2005. 20 Dec. 2005 2005. 20 Dec. 2005 <http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/german_kyoto_protocol_hoax.htm><http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/german_kyoto_protocol_hoax.htm>..
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• Understanding Climate Change.Understanding Climate Change. 23 August 2004. Government of 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/understan<http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/understanding.asp>.ding.asp>.
• Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol. 21 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free . 21 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>Encyclopedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>
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