Download - Dollarama Case DCF
assumptions in thousands2011 2012 2013
new stores 35 35 352 year stores 40 35 35setablished stores 564 604 639
Sales per new st 1800 1924 2056Sales per 2 year st 2000 2137 2284Sales per established store 2200 2351 2512Sales $ 1,383,800 $ 1,562,112 $ 1,757,239
EBIT $ 163,288.40 $ 184,329 $ 207,354
D&A $ 25,844.65 $ 29,174.91 $ 32,819.21
Capex $ 20,354.23 $ 22,977.02 $ 25,847.13
NOPAT=EBIT*(1-T) $ 106,137 $ 119,814 $ 134,780 NOWC $ 205,503 $ 231,983 $ 260,961 Change in NOWC $ 23,502.56 $ 26,480 $ 28,977 FCFF $ 88,125 $ 99,531 $ 112,775
Terminal ValuePV(FCFF) $ 83,026 $ 88,347 $ 94,310 Enterprise Value #VALUE!Value of Non Operating Assents = $ 34,000 Firm Value #VALUE!Debt $ 475,000 Equity Value #VALUE!Shares 72,700.00 Intrinsic Value per Share #VALUE!Over/Undervalued
Exhibit 1: Dollarama Financial Data (For Fiscal Years Ending February 1)
2007 2008 2009Number of stores 463 521 564
58 43
Income Statement Data
Sales 888 972 1,089 Cost of Sales 588 641 717
G&A (Incl. Store Operating Expenses) 156 188 222 Depreciation and Amortization 14 18 22 Operating Income (EBIT) 129 125 128
Balance Sheet DataCash and Cash Equivalents 48 26 66 Accounts Receivable 6 3 3 Merchandise Inventories 166 199 250 Accounts Payable 16 22 40 Accrued Expenses and Other 36 43 38 Non Cash NOWC 120 137 175 Change in Non Cash NOWC 17 38
Property and Equipment (Net) 85 112 130 Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets 848 845 843 Capex 24 16 Capex 42 38 Long-Term Debt (incl current portion) 820 679 822 LTD change (141) 143
Ownership Structure Post IPO Shares (millions) %Bain Capital Partners 42.2 58.0%Rossy Family 8.4 11.6%Other Company Insiders 2.3 3.2%Public 19.7 27.1%
72.7 100.0%
Risk Free Rate 3.34%2014 2015 Sales g rate 6.86%
35 35 EBIT Margin 11.80%35 35 Tax Rate 35%
674 709 D&A % Sales 1.58% 1.85% 2.02% 2.02%Capex as % Sales 2.47% 1.47% 0.47%
2197 2347 NOWC % Sales 14.09% 16.07% 14.39%2441 26082685 2869 Weight of Equity 79.17%
$ 1,971,790 $ 2,207,512 Weight of Debt 20.83% #DIV/0! 0.00%
$ 232,671 $ 260,486 Cost of Debt 5.5%
$ 36,826.29 $ 41,228.76 Market Risk Premium 5%
$ 29,002.94 $ 32,470.16 Cost of Equity 6.8169%
WACC 6.14%
$ 151,236 $ 169,316 Terminal Growth Rate 2.50% $ 292,823 $ 327,829 $ 31,862 $ 35,006 $ 127,198 $ 143,069
#ADDIN? 2,359,196 $ 100,216 $ 106,199
EBITDA 2015 $ 301,715.16 EV $ 2,176,939.65
2010 Est604
4040
1,265 832
266 26 141
38 3 256 25 52 182 7
137 842 6 32 455 (367)
average
1.87%1.47%
14.85%
Exhibit 2. Canada's Largest Operators of Dollar Stores
Company Corporate/Franchise # of Stores Store size rangeDollarama Corporate 594 2,500 - 10,000Your Dollar Store With More Franchise/Corporate 135 8,000 - 15,000Great Canadian Dollar Store Franchise 104 2,000 - 10,000Buck or Two Franchise 79 Up to 6,000Everything For A Dollar Franchise 70 1,600 - 8,000Dollar Giant Corporate 65 8,000 - 15,000Dollar Blitz Franchise 40 NAThe $1 Store Plus & Only Deals Franchise 20 2,000 - 3,000
Price point$1 - $2
Up to $2Up to $15
$1, $1.50, $2$1
$1.25 $1
$1 - $3
Exhibit 3: Dollarama vs U.S. Dollar Store Peers (Trailing 12 months)
Dollarama Dollar TreeTotal stores 594 3,591
9,700 10,654Price point range $1 - $2 $1 or lessSKU count 4,400 5,000Offshore sourcing 52% 43%Private label 52% 10%Consumables mix 37% 49%Sales/selling sq ft $251 $158 EBIT margin 11.8% 7.9%Inv./gross sq. ft. $44 $18 Inventory Days 112 93
2010 2011SALES 1265 1351.807568361COGSEBIT = Average CM*Sales 149.27 106.7927979005NOPAT $97 $69
Average store size (selling + nonselling)
99 Cents Only Family Dollar Freds Big Lots Dollar General279 6,655 639 1,339 8,362
21,125 8,325 18,400 29,789 7,017$0.99 $10 or less Multi Multi $10 or less
NA NA 12,000 20,000 10,500NA 46% NA 27% 50%Yes 19% 7% NA 21%56% 64% 47% 30% 69%
$273 $153 $184 $160 $180 1.8% 6.2% 1.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.8%$25 $19 $27 $19 $26 76 76 101 124 71
2012 2013 20141444.572096345 1543.702365915 1649.635210703
26.00229773422 95.70954668671 24.74452816055$17 $62 $16
Confidential
Page 10
Exhibit 4: Data on Selected Publicly-Traded Retailers ($ millions)
Company Debt Net Debt EV/EBITDA Value/Sales
Dollarama (C$) 1,676 475 34 441 2,117 158 1,204 13.40 0.13
U.S. Dollar Stores/Discount/Off-Price Retailers
99 Cents Only Stores (US$) 845 0.6 128 -127.68 717 91 1,337 7.88 0.54
Big Lots (US$) 2,377 1.0 46 -44.907 2,332 348 4,630 6.71 0.50
Dollar General (US$) 7,949 4,138 517 3620.714 11,570 1,086 11,127 10.65 1.04
Dollar Tree (US$) 4,317 272 342 -70.2 4,247 619 5,059 6.86 0.84
Family Dollar Stores (US$) 3,914 250 445 -194.691 3,719 617 7,401 6.03 0.50
Fred's (US$) 367 5 39 -33.605 334 65 1,784 5.17 0.19
471 average 7.22 0.60
median 6.78
6.53
Enterprise Value 1,140
Shares 73
Market Value of Equity
Cash & STInvestments
Enterprise Value=MV(Equity)+Net
Debt
Last 12 MonthsEBITDA
Last 12 Months
Revenue
Confidential
Page 11
Debt Ratio W eq D/E Unlevered Beta
0.208339731 0.791660269 34% NA 0.28
(0.177954) 1.177954 0.529 40% 0.45 0.00 0.45
-0.01925995 1.019260 1.127 40% 1.11 0.00 1.11
0.312938819 0.687061 30% NA 0.52
-0.0165305 1.016531 0.525 35% 0.52 0.06 0.50
-0.05234456 1.052345 0.361 35% 0.34 0.06 0.33
-0.10069519 1.100695 0.935 28% 0.85 0.01 0.84
unlevered bet 0.695 average 0.65 average Beta 0.64 ?
Last 12 Months
Gross Margin (%)
5-yr Equity Beta vs.
World Equity Mkt Portfolio
Exhibit 5: Dollarama Price Comparison
Shoppers Drug Mart and Canadian Tire Dollarama
Size Price SizeDove Beauty Bar 2x120g $4.99 $2.08 100g50W Halogen 1 $5.99 $5.99 1Axe/Max Body Wash 354ml $7.49 $7.41 350mlReading Glasses 1 $14.99 $14.99 1AAA Batteries 4 $7.99 $7.99 4Tongue and Groove Plier 6.5” $17.99 $17.99 9.5”Muesli 350g $6.49 $3.71 200gBiodegradable Kitchen Sacs 20 $4.99 $2.50 10Wine Glass 4 $8.99 $2.25 1Total $64.90
Price Adjusted to Dollarama’s
Size
Dollarama Savings
Price $ %$1.00 $1.07 52%$1.00 $4.99 83%$1.00 $6.41 86%$1.00 $13.99 93%$1.00 $6.99 87%$2.00 $15.99 89%$1.25 $2.46 66%$1.00 $1.50 60%$1.00 $1.25 56%
$10.25 $54.65 84%
Exhibit 10: Macroeconomic Data
C$/$US
1990 1.8% 5.0% 4.0% 1.16 28.44 5.1% -14.8%1991 1.5% 3.8% 7.9% 1.16 19.15 -4.4% 12.0%1992 2.5% 2.1% 3.3% 1.27 19.49 6.5% -1.4%1993 4.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.32 14.19 10.3% 32.5%1994 6.9% 0.2% 1.5% 1.40 17.77 16.9% -0.2%1995 3.6% 1.8% 2.7% 1.36 19.54 6.0% 14.5%1996 4.5% 2.2% 3.1% 1.37 25.90 12.6% 28.3%1997 5.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.43 17.65 8.8% 15.0%1998 3.4% 1.0% 1.5% 1.53 12.14 -15.0% -1.6%1999 9.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.45 25.76 -3.5% 31.7%2000 8.7% 3.2% 1.3% 1.50 26.72 18.4% 7.4%2001 -0.4% 0.7% 1.6% 1.59 19.96 -12.0% -12.6%2002 7.8% 3.9% 2.4% 1.57 31.21 17.0% -12.4%2003 3.8% 2.0% 2.7% 1.30 32.51 -8.2% 26.7%2004 7.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.20 43.36 4.3% 14.5%2005 7.2% 2.2% 4.1% 1.16 61.06 14.8% 24.1%2006 3.2% 1.6% 4.6% 1.17 60.85 -2.6% 17.3%2007 6.9% 2.4% 5.0% 1.00 95.95 4.5% 9.8%2008 0.7% 1.2% 5.3% 1.22 39.25 -20.7% -33.0%
-2.9% 1.2% 5.5% 1.06 75.41 4.9% 33.4%
Average Nominal GDP Growth
Canadian Real GDP
Canadian CPI
Canadian Minimum Wage (C$)
West Texas Itermediate Oil Price per Barrel (US$)
CRB Commodities Total Return
Index (C$)
Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Total Return
Index(C$)
2009 (Sep)
Nominal GDP Growth
6.90%5.34%4.71%6.18%7.13%5.42%6.82%5.75%4.45%
12.04%12.20%
0.29%11.98%
5.88%9.66%9.46%4.88%9.45%1.83%
-
Average Nominal GDP Growth 6.86%
Exhibit 11: Candian Treasury Yields as of December 10, 2009
Maturity Yield3-months 0.13%
6-months 0.25%
1 Year 0.53%
2 Years 1.22%
3 Years 1.68%
5 Years 2.49%
10 Years 3.34%
15 Years 3.84%
20 Years 4.08%
30 Years 3.98%
Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Amount % Capital Expected Return Expected Return After TaxDebt 5.50%Equity
Total Sources
WACC (after tax) EBITDA Multiple
10-year Treasury Note [ rf ]Beta for dollar store companyEquity Premium [ Pe ]Firm Specific Risk Premium [e]Cost of Equity
COST OF EQUITY CALCULATIONE (re) = rf - β . Pe + e
3.34%
?
5.00%0.0%
#VALUE!
COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION (re) = rf - β . Pe + e
Income Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Sales 1265 1353.55 1422.175 1466.831 1484.433Cost of Sales:
COGSRentTransportationSupply Chain Cost
Total Cost of SalesEBIT 141.4017 170.2732 178.9061 184.5238 186.738NOPAT 91.91111 110.6776 116.289 119.9404 121.3797
2007 2008 2009 2010EBIT CM 14.53% 12.86% 11.75% 11.18%Average CM 12.58%