Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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R. K. Pachauri
12 August 2013
Joensuu, Finland
Climate Change and Bio-economy –
Challenges and Opportunities
The tragedy of the commons develops in this way. Picture a
pasture open to all. It is to be expected that each herdsman
will try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons.
Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for
centuries because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep
the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying
capacity of the land. Finally, however, comes the day of
reckoning, that is, the day when the long-desired goal of
social stability becomes a reality. At this point, the inherent
logic of the commons remorselessly generates tragedy.
-Garrett Hardin
In the 1970s, Georgescu-Roegen coined theterm bioeconomics for a new approach ineconomics: "The term is intended to make usbear in mind continuously the biological originof the economic process and thus spotlight theproblem of mankind's existence with a limitedstore of accessible resources, unevenly locatedand unequally appropriated"
Sustainable development
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“Sustainable development
is development that meets
the needs of the present
without compromising the
ability of future generations
to meet their own needs.”
Source : Brundtland Report, 1987, UN
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125,000 years ago…
The polar regions were
significantly warmer
than present for an
extended period
… which led to
reductions in polar ice
volume and sea level
rise of 4 to 6 m .
Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last
half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.
Warming Of The Climate System Is Unequivocal
Source : IPCC
Understanding climate change
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Causes of change
Global GHG emissions due to human activities
have grown since pre-industrial times, with an
increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004
CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80%
between 1970 and 2004
Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due
to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations
Source : IPCC
Global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 1970 to 2004
7Source : IPCC
Some key findings of the SREX
Source: IPCC
Changes in extreme events:
heavy precipitation
Warm/cold daily temperature
extremes
Heat waves
Sea level rise
Some scenarios show that a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event
by the end of the 21st century in most regions.
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Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts
Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply meters of sea
level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying
areas
20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in
warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning
Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity,
fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation
Source: IPCC
Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts
Fatalities are higher in developing countries
10Source : IPCC
From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in
developing countries
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Adaptation and Mitigation
“Neither adaptation nor
mitigation alone can avoid
all climate change impacts;
however, they can
complement each other and
together can significantly
reduce the risks of climate
change”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report
Source : IPCC
“There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that
could […] reduce emissions below current levels”
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What is REDD Plus?
REDD + is a financial instrument to incentivize conservation and sustainable management of forests and thereby reducing GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradationUnderlying objectives:
Compensating the forest owners in developing countries for conserving forests by putting a value on the forest carbon stocks
The countries conserving forests forgo the economic gain of harvesting them as well as the benefits from alternative land use and hence need to be compensated for the same
Costs involved in conservation and SMF needs to be shared by other countries as the forests provide a range of offsite ecosystem services that benefit all
Given the livelihood linkage of forests in many developing countries, forest conservation imposes several direct and indirect costs
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Co-benefits of mitigation
Common drivers lie
behind mitigation
policies and policies
addressing economic
development, poverty,
health, employment,
energy security, and
local environmental
protection
Linking policies provide
the opportunity for no-
regrets policies reducing
greenhouse gases
mitigation costs
Source : IPCC
Development And Mitigation
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Health co-benefits from
reduced air pollution
Increased energy
security
More rural employment
Increased agricultural
production
Reduced pressure on
natural ecosystems
Promising policies will capitalize on synergies between climate protection and development
priorities to advance both simultaneously.
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Rio +20 and climate change mitigation
The Future We Want
§191 “ […] Significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in
terms of glob annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission
pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average
temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.”
Heads of State and Government at Rio +20 :
• call for the widest possible cooperation by all
countries for an effective and appropriate
international response, to reduce global GHGs
• Recognize the importance of mobilizing funding to
support:
• nationally appropriate mitigation actions
(NAMAs),
• adaptation measures,
• technology development and transfer and
• capacity building in developing countries.
Source : UN
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Rio +20 critical issue: Energy
The Future We Want
§128 “[…] We recognize that
improving energy efficiency,
increasing the share of
renewable energy, cleaner
and energy-efficient
technologies are important for
sustainable development,
including in addressing climate
change.”
Source : UN
Overcoming barriers
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A significant increase in the deployment
of RE by 2030, 2050 and beyond is
indicated in the majority of the 164
scenarios reviewed in this SRREN.
However:
A transition to higher shares of RE
would imply increasing investments in
technologies and infrastructure
Policies play a crucial role in accelerating the deployment of RE technologies.
Policies include regulations, financial incentives, public finance mechanisms and carbon pricing mechanisms.
Source : IPCC SRREN
‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment
Systemic Overview of Bio-energy
Production
Schematic View of Commercial
Bio-energy Routes
Processing
of
Bio-fuels
Problems Can’t Be Solved At The Level of Awareness That Created Them
- Albert Einstein
The difficulty, is not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones
-John Maynard Keynes