8/11/2019 Dreams of a Prosperous Future - Imagining Gaza

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08 The N tion l the worldSunday, September 7, 2014 www.thenational.ae

Gaza Marinegas eld

Al Buyuki

Rafah

Abasan Alkabir

Khan Yunis

Dayr Al Balah

Gaza City

Beit Hanoun

Beit Lahiya

Rafah

217,760

Khan Yunis

331,020

Middle Area

255,710

Gaza

606,710

North Gaza

348,810

gaza: the potential

85%of fishable waters off the

coast of Gaza are off limits

37

5.511

The reductionof the fishing zonefor Gazan fishermensince the Oslo Accordsof 1994 (km)

1994

Until before the latest conflict

After the latest conflict

234.6tonnes is the estimated loss

in Gazas fishing sector,between 9 Jul10 Aug

G a z a s E E Z

E g y p t s E E Z

equivalent to

9%of local fishers

annual catch

Average birth rates (per woman)

Gaza

West Bank

4.9

3.8

2014 2020 2028

17%of total land in

Gaza is currentlyinaccessible

7,562people per

square kilometreis the projected

population densityin Gaza for 2028

46%of agriculturalland in Gaza is

off limits

More than

40%of the population

is unemployed

Gazas projected population growth (millions)

160,000are affected by the current restrictions. They make up

about 12% of Gazas population

I s r a e l s E x c l u s i v e E c o n o m i c Z o n e ( E E Z )

G a z a s E E Z

Gaza InternationalAirport

(destroyed)

Gaza Port(proposed location)

Desalination plant(work paused)

km 2

3historical sitesin Gaza wereincluded in alist that thePalestinianAuthority

submitted toUnesco

At least

90%of Gazas currentwater supply is

not potable

700,000was the airports annual

passenger capacity. In 2000, itoperated flights to Amman,

Istanbul, Larnaca, Cairo, Jeddah,Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha

30,000families rely on

farming for theirlivelihood

2,000is the number of jobs

the port is goingto create

US$100mis the cost of building the port

US$7.8bis the cost of rebuilding Gaza

Buffer zone

Built up area

Gazas main highway

Municipality borderPopulation permunicipality

Refugee camps

3 Actual Project ion

The effect of the Blockade on Gazas GDP (constant billion US$)

Gaza Marines requiredcapital investment andestimated revenues (billion US$)

1.5

02002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Hamascomesto powerafterelections

2007 2008 2009 2010

1

2.4

7InvestmentRevenue, minimum estimateRevenue, maxium estimate

The EU granted

10mto develop a

desalination plant,providing 75,000 Gazanswith safe drinking water

Well water in Gaza is

25%higher in salt content

than is safe, according tothe World Health

Organisation

GazaMarine

1.6Israel

6.8Oman

35.9

UAE

52.3

Qatar

133.2

20 years is the predicted lifetime of the field

ISRAEL

EGYPTAgeneralviewofGazaInternationalAirportonitsopeningday. JWH/WS

Predicted production volume of the Gaza Marine gasfield compared with gross output of other countries (billion cubic metres)

ThearchaeologicalsiteoftheSaintHilarionMonasteryinDayrAlBalah.MohammedAbed /AFP

1.8 2.1 2.7

Source:UN,The WorldFactbook,TheWashington Institute,New YorkTimes,Gaza Airport,Google

1km

Imagine a beautiful stretch of Mediter-ranean coastline with a thriving economybased on natural resources, agriculture,shing and an industrious workforce. Itsport acts as a hub for ships traversing theSuez Canal to Europe, and people andgoods move freely to the region and be-yond through its international airport.After the latest devastating war on the

territory, it is hard to imagine Gaza asanything other than a place of utter dev-astation. Israels bombs have again setthe territory back decades, with even themost basic infrastructure left in ruins.But before Hamas seized the territory

in 2007 and Israel imposed its blockade,there were brief periods of stability whenGaza showed glimpses of what it couldbecome.With a permanent peace deal, a stable

Palestinian government and an end toIsraels siege, Foreign CorrespondentOrlando Crowcroft examines the fullpotential of Gaza and its people, withgraphic by Hussain Almoosawi

Dreams of a prosperous future

09

Foreign Correspondent Orlando Crowcroft discusses what a stable Gaza could become.Visit thenational.ae/world to hear The Nationals Global Talk podcast.

Listen online

ResourcesThe destruction of Gazas powerplant by Israeli shelling in Julyknocked out the only independ-ent Palestinian power-generationresource. The West Bank has longrelied on Israel for its electricityneeds, and although Gaza has suf-fered extensive power cuts sincethe beginning of the siege, theplant gave it a modicum of powerindependence.

The asyet untapped GazaMarineoffshore gaseld would changethings. The eld wasdiscovered 36kilometresoffshore in2000, butsince Hamasstakeover ofGaza in2007, little progresshasbeen made.

The WashingtonInstitute estimatedthisyear that acapital investment ofUS$1billion (Dh3.67bn)could returnrevenuesof $2.4bnto $7bn, depend-ingon the price forgas that Palestin-iansare able to get from internation-al buyers. The gascould also be fedto arebuilt power stationin Gaza,comfortably providingenergy for theGazaStrip and the West Bank.

Foreign investmentWith Hamas designated a terroristorganisation by the United Statesand the European Union, privateinvestment in Gaza from the Westis limited to humanitarian aid, whilethe Israeli blockade means thatimporting goods particularlyconstruction materials is practi-cally impossible. But the potentialfor foreign investment in Gaza caneasily be gleaned from the past.

When Mohammed Morsi, theformer Egyptian president, loosenedthe border restrictions on the stripand the tunnel economy was opera-tional, Gaza experienced extensivegrowth as money ooded in. In 2011,

the economy grew 20 per cent, ac-cording to the IMF, and many weretalking about an economic boom inGaza. Qatars currently unnishedplan to develop the waterfront inGaza City also demonstrates that even under Hamas Gaza haswealthy friends, even if the ability toput plans into action is constrainedby the Israeli blockade.

The development of the Gaza Ma-rine offshore gas eld, as well as aseaport and airport, would undoubt-edly open the oodgates to foreigninvestment, particularly from theMiddle East and the Arabian Gulf,and presents Gazas greatest hopefor stability in the years ahead.

Visitors

Aswell asits prime stretchofMedi-terraneancoastline, Gazais hometo several hotelsthat meet interna-tional standards, and isonly ashortdrive from BenGurion Airport.

That isif itsown international air-port isnot approved innegotiationswithIsrael. Althoughnot asblessedasthe West Bank withhistoric andreligiousattractions, Gazaishome toanumber ofimportant sites.

In2012, the PalestinianAuthoritysubmitted alist ofhistorical sitesto Unesco, three ofwhichwere inGaza. They include the Wadi GazaCoastal Wetlands, the monastery ofSt Hilarionand the ancient AnthedonHarbour. Before the Hamastakeover

ofthe stripin 2007, local Palestinianentrepreneurshad talked about de-velopingresorts alongGazas75kmcoastline. But the Israeli siege andstrict entry requirementsimposedby Hamashave made tourism all butimpossible.

It isdifficult to predict tourismnumbersshould the siege be lifted,and many infrastructure challengesremainbefore the territory wouldbe anywhere near ready to welcometourists.

Inthe West Bank, the number oftouristspeaked at about 4millionlast year, but the bulk ofthose werepilgrimsvisiting Bethlehem. Gaza,althoughhistorically signicant, hasno comparable religioussite.

FishingSince the Oslo Accords of 1994,Israel has reduced the shing zonefor Gazan shermen from 37kmoffshore to just 5.5km.

Israel recently agreed to extendit to 11km after itslatest war withmilitantsin the strip. Today, 85 percent ofshable watersoffthe coastofGaza are offlimits, and shermenwho try to brave the heavily patrolledmaritime border oftennd them-selvesshot at by Israeli gunboats.

The United Nationsestimates thatcurrent restrictionson shingaffect12 per cent ofthe population, ormore than160,000 people. And they

led to lossesofmore than$75 millionin2012.

Duringthe recent conict, Gazasshingsector suffered lossesesti-mated at 234.6 tonnesbetween July9 and August 10, whichis equivalentto 9.3 per cent ofthe annual catch.

Inits report in2012 onthe effectsofshing restrictions, the UN said itwasfood scarcity inparticular whereliftingrestrictions onGazasshingzone could have animpact.

The openingof Gazasshingzonewould provide tonnesofseafood inaterritory that isexperiencing risingfood shortagesas Israel continuesitssiege ofGaza.

Seaport

Plansfor aport inGazahave beenonthe table asfar back astalksinOslo inthe 1990s. As the West Bankislandlocked, acom mercial port inthe stripwould provide alifeline forafuture Palestinianstate. It wouldease the import ofgoods, whichissubject to signicant Israeli taxation,restrictionsand scrutiny. It couldalso provide scope for Gazato mimicother regional citiessuch asDubai,whichhas developed shippingandre-export into one ofthe key sectorsofits economy. That said, there areplenty ofhurdlesahe ad, and the de-velopment ofaport in Gazaisalong

way off. Constructionwasdue tobeginin2000,butwashaltedattheoutbreakof thesecond intifada.AftertheIsraeli withdrawalfromGaza in2005andthetakeoverbyHamas,constructionceased completely.TheporthasbeenakeydemandofHa-masbutitwasshelvedinlastmonthstalkswithIsraeltoendtheseven-weekconict.Theportisexpectedtofeaturein furthernegotiationsnextmonth.Itwouldcost$100m,withEuropeandonors providingmostofthefunding.Anditwouldcreate2,000jobsandtakethreeyearstobuild,accordingtoZiadObaid,theengineerbehind theoriginal plansforaportinGaza.

Land

Asmuchas17 per cent ofGazaslandisinaccessible, most ofit liesin thedesignated buffer zonealong theborder withIsrael.

Farmland makesupthe bulk oftheland; and areport in2010 estimatedthat 46 per cent ofagriculturalland wasoff limits. Almost 30,000familiesrely onfarming for their

livelihood and, asare sult, have nosource ofincome. But, ina terri-tory that importsmost ofwhat itconsumes, there isahuge impact onfood security.

The UN Refugee and WorksAgencysaid inJune that food insecurity lev-elsin Gazawere at 57 per cent, andduringthe latest conict, pricesofsome food itemsrose asmuchas40per cent. The siege hasalso inated

land prices, makingit difficult forGazansto buy land to build homesor for the government to developinfrastructure and services.

The freeingup of20 per cent ofGazasavailable land areawouldease property pricesand makedevelopment easier acrossthe strip,while anincrease infarming wouldreduce the cost offood and relianceonimports.

People

Gazaspopulationof 1.8 millionisprojected to exceed 2.1million by2020 and 2.7 millionby 2028. Thiswould pushthe populationdensityalready amongthe highest intheworld to 7,562 people per squarekilometre.

Fertility ratesinGaza are very high,withwomengivingbirthonaverage

to 4.9 children, compared with3.8 inthe West Bank.

Presently,morethan 40per centofGazansarejobless.Butthelevelofeducationin Gazais highrelativetothe region,and althoughthereareconcernsabouttheabilityoftheeducationsystemtomeetthede-mandfromanexpectedsurgeinthepopulationinthe nextdecade, Gazahasa relativelyskilledworkforce.

Liftingrestrictions onfarming, sh-ingand constructionwould create

thousandsof jobsin the low-skilledsector, while tourism and other

industries suchas manufacturingand telecoms could provide skilled jobsfor Gazans. That said, the effectonchildrenofthree warsinveyearsshould not be understated.

Arecent study by the Save the Chil-drencharity found that the rate ofpost-traumaticstress disorder dou-bled after the war in2012 and wouldonly increase after thisyearsbrutalbombingcampaign. That legacy will

be asignicant challenge for Gazawithor without the siege.

WaterOne of Gazas biggest challenges,regardless of the Israeli siege, iswater supply.

The territory isserved by acoastalaquifer, whichexpertssay will beirreversibly damaged by 2020because ofsewage beingpumpe dinto the sea.

At least 90 per cent ofGazascur-rent water supply isnot potable, ac-cordingto Unicef, whichannouncedplanslast year to build a10m(Dh47.5m)desalinationplant nearthe central city ofKhanYounis.

Desalination is a costly and re-source-intensive method to producefresh water, but power should not be

an issue if and when Gazas offshoregas resources come online.

The desalination project is on hold,however, and the situation is evenmore acute now than it was beforethe conict.

The International Committee of theRed Cross said in July that hundredsof thousands of people in Gaza hadno access to water.

Residents have access to wells,but the water they draw out of themhas salt content that is 25 per centabove the safe limit, says the WorldHealth Organisation. Indeed, Gazasstruggle for water resources likeits neighbours Jordan, Egypt andIsrael will be one of its mostserious.

AirportThe reopeningof Gazasairportwould not only have animpact ontourism, but would serve asacrucialfreight and transport link for afuturePalestinianstate.

It would allow the resurgenceofthe largely defunct PalestinianAirlines, whichoperated out ofGazaInternational Airport for acoupleofyears before the second intifada,whenIsrael bombed the runway.

The building, withits goldendome,now liesin ruins.

PalestinianAirlines, still owned andoperated by the PalestinianAuthor-ity from itsbase at El ArishAirportinEgypt, used to y throughout theArabianGulf, aswell asto Damascusand Istanbul. Grounded for more

thana decade, PalestinianAirlinesrelaunched ightsin May 2012, but ithasonly a tokenpresence in Egypt,withtwo 48-seat planesplyingroutesto Amman, Cairo and Jeddah.

But as plenty of other MiddleEastern countries have shown in theprevious decade, establishing anaviation hub can be very lucrative.

Gazas position could make it anattractive transfer destination forairlines connecting Asia with Eu-rope, as well as for pilgrims visitingthe region most of whom eitherhave to run the gauntlet at Israeliimmigration at Ben Gurion Airportor cross from Jordan via the AllenbyBridge.

The airport, like the sea port, ison the table for talks this monthbetween Israel and the Palestinians.