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Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q4, 2010
Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics
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Presentation Overview
Fourth Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview
• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations
• New and Used
• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty
• Corporate and Brand
• Other Market Impacts• Vehicle Financing• Hybrid Market Share• Impact of Gas Prices
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Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets
NationalFraud
Database
650 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including 280million+ vehicle in operationIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5.5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M+ title brands and 92M+ accident related events
OnlineActivity
DatabasesCredit
Databases
ConsumerMarketing Databases
Simmons National
Consumer Study
North AmericanVehicle
Database
Integrated Information Assets
50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file
25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year
Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records
Business22 million businesses
235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalog buyers148 million magazine subscribers
Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records
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VEHICLESIN
OPERATION
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AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.
Quick Facts…
• There are 239,811,984 light duty vehicles on the road
• Down over 470,000 units from last quarter (-0.20%)
And up nearly 750,000 units vs. Q4 2009
• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota
• Ford F150 is the largest volume model, followed by the Honda Accord
• Trucks continue to maintain majority vs. cars (50.4% vs. 49.6%)
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0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
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1992
1991
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1987
1986
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1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
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1976
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1974
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1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
79.2 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less
79%Average Age = 9.9 years (up 3 months vs 2009 data)
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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Sport Car - Ultra LuxuryUpscale - Ultra
OtherAlt Power - Hybrid Truck
Upscale - PremiumSport Car - Upper Premium
SUV - PickupAlt Power - Hybrid CarSUV - Premium Large
SUV - Upper Mid RangeSport Car - Premium
Small Car - BudgetCUV - PremiumTraditional Car
CUV - Mid RangeVan - Full Sized
Sport Car - TouringSUV - Entry LevelUpscale - Luxury
SUV - LargeUpscale - Near Luxury
CUV - Entry LevelMid Range Car - Premium
Pickup - SmallSUV - Lower Mid Range
Van - MiniMid Range Car - Lower
Small Car - EconomyMid Range Car - Standard
Pickup - Full Sized
Current VIO – Vehicle Segment
Hybrid vehicles represent 0.77 percent of current VIO
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Current VIO – Percent Share
Source: Experian NVDB as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer
• Domestic brands represent more than 61 percent of all vehicles in operation
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VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS
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U.S. Automotive Market Overview
• Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009, new vehicle registrations increased by more than 408,000 units (nearly 17 percent)
• Consistent with Q1 and Q2 increases
10
Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive
Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009, 3x in 2010
2009 2010
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U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations
New Vehicle Registrations
Q1, Q2 and Q4 consistent increases vs same quarters in
2009. Q3 2009 included cash for clunkers program
Source: Experian Automotive
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
C4C
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Used Vehicle Registrations
U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations
Used vehicle registrations had largest increase compared to Q4
2009, as prior three quarters have been
fairly consistent over prior year
Source: Experian Automotive
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
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New Vehicle Market Overview
New Vehicle Registrations – Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2009
Source: Experian Automotive
• Hyundai had highest unit and percentage gain versus Q4 2009, up nearly 80,000 units (56.6%)
• GM had second-highest unit gain, followed by Ford and Honda
• Nissan had the second highest percentage point gain (25.4%) followed by Honda (22.2%) and Chrysler (19.8%)
• Toyota was essentially unchanged, with 120 unit gain versus Q4 2009
Corporation
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Market ChangersN
ew R
egis
tratio
ns
Source: Experian Automotive
Sonata up more than
28,000 units
Ranked by Unit Change
Equinox and Silverado up
combined 34,000 units
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‐5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Q4 2009 Q4 2010
M&M’s (Market Movers)
Ranked by % change
New
Reg
istra
tions
Source: Experian Automotive
Grand Cherokee up 21,909 units
Outlander up 2,634 units
Elantra up 17,136 units
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NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 Performance
• Numerous small and mid-size coupes and luxury sedans entering market
• New entries represent more than 77,000 additional sales for 4th quarter
New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive
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-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
GM Ford Toyota Honda Chrysler Hyundai Nissan
2009 2010
Source: Experian Automotive
New Vehicle Registrations
New Vehicle Market Overview: Annual Summary
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MARKET SHARE
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Who is up? • Ford 0.9% share• Hyundai 0.7% share• Nissan 0.4% share• Chrysler 0.4% share
GM
Ford
ToyotaHonda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2010
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
Who is down? • Toyota -1.6% share• GM -0.3% share• Honda -0.3% share
CY2010 vs CY2009 Market Share
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2009
Source: Experian Automotive
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Market Share Trend
20
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
2008 2009 2010
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21
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’CY2010 vs CY2009 Market Share
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• Mix of vehicles helping to drive share for Ford, Hyundai, Nissan, Chrysler and VW
• Small / Mid-Range car drop impacting share for Toyota, Honda, GM, Volvo and Mercedes-Benz
Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Market Share
22
Source: Experian Automotive
Market Share Analysis: Model Level
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Market Share Analysis: Segment Level
Full Size Pickup
SUV -Large
Small Car -
Economy
• Full Size Pickup segment had greatest market share increase in Q4 2010 versus Q4 2009
• Entry Level SUV and CUV, SUV Lower Mid Range and Small Car Budget had strong increases
• Mid Range Car Standard, Sport Car Touring and Small Car Economy had large market share drops
Source: Experian Automotive
Mar
ket S
hare
Cha
nge
SUV –Entry Level
Small Car Budget
Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Market Share
CUV –Entry Level
SUV –Lower
Mid Range
Mid Range Car -
Standard
Mid Range Car -
Premium
Sport Car -
Touring
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Market Share Analysis: Import Brand Market ShareM
arke
t Sha
re
2007 2008 2009 2010
Import Brands exceed 50 percent market share
Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon
Cash For Clunkers
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CUSTOMERLOYALTY
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Loyalty Methodology
•Multiple Levels
Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.
Provides complete view of repurchase activity
Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.
Essentially tracking vehicle replacement
Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
Owned Vehicle:
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Loyalty Types
•Multiple Levels
Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella
Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level. Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
Corporate Loyalty Example:
Brand Loyalty Example:
Owned Vehicle:
Owned Vehicle:
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Q4 2010 Corporate Loyalty
28
• GM passed Ford to gain top spot in Corporate Loyalty (first time in 3 quarters)
• Hyundai is higher than Honda for 3rd straight qtr• Chrysler continues to increase
Market Overview - Loyalty
Corporate Loyalty by Month
• Honda and Hyundai end year in deadlock
• Chrysler on upward trend for year
• GM ends quarter with dramatic increase in loyalty
• Toyota and Ford in downward trendSource: Experian Automotive
2010
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Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q3 2010
Source: Experian Automotive
• Luxury brands represent five out of the top ten spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty
• Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler show strong increases
• Kia had highest point gain, more than seven percentage points
Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Kia Forte Ford Fusion
Ford Edge
Chevrolet Impala
Ford Five Hundred
Chevrolet Traverse
Ford Flex
Ford Escape
Chevrolet Equinox
Ford Focus
Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10
Q4 2010 Brand Loyalty
30
Source: Experian Automotive
• Kia Forte owners were most brand loyal, with nearly two out of three returning to Kia
• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty
• Chevrolet had three of top ten brand loyal vehicles
Model Owned
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Corporate Loyalty: 2010 vs 2009
31
Corporate Loyalty – Annual Summary
Source: Experian Automotive
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2007 – Who took from Whom?
64,000
Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225
Net Owner Migration
GM Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
Source: Experian Automotive
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Q4 2010: Who’s taking from Whom?
72,124
Net UnitsGM (195,063)Chrysler (184,771)Ford 60,368Toyota 147,430Honda 172,036
Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
ToyotaHonda
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
ToyotaHonda
Q4 2010: Net Migration to Hyundai
Hyundai13,968
Nissan
5,93
0
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
ToyotaHonda
Q4 2010: Net Migration to Nissan
Nissan6,597
5,93
0
Hyundai
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Source: Experian Automotive
Battle for Market Share
Hyundai
Nissan44.1%
34.0%
Corporate LoyaltyMarket Share
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ADDITIONALINDUSTRYINSIGHTS
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IMPACT OF VEHICLE
FINANCING
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Brand Owned
Brand LoyaltyLoan Lease
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Loan vs. Lease
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Captive Bank Finance Credit Union
BuyHere / PayHere
Lender Type
Dealer Loyalty
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Lender Type
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ford Toyota Honda Hyundai Chevrolet Nissan Dodge
Brand Owned
Brand LoyaltyCaptive Non-Captive
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Captive vs. Non-Captive
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0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Brand Owned
Dealer LoyaltyCaptive Non-Captive
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Captive vs. Non-Captive
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20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Deep SubPrime
Sub Prime
Non Prime
Prime Super Prime
VantageScore
Mercedes-Benz FinancialToyota Financial ServicesAmerican Honda FinanceFord Motor Credit
BMW Bank of North AmericaNissan Infiniti Financial Services
Finance Source: Captive
( < 600 ) ( 601 – 640 ) ( 641 – 700 ) ( 701 – 800 ) ( 801 + )
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Vantage Score
Brand Loyalty
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 44
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
12 24 36 48 60 72 > 72Term In Months
Brand Loyalty
Lease
Loan
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Term
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30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%
12 24 36 48 60 72 > 72Term In Months
Brand Loyalty
Ford Loan
Ford Lease
Honda Loan
Honda Lease
Impact of Vehicle Financing: Term
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HYBRID MARKET SHARE
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47
Source: Experian Automotive
Hybrid Market Share
2008 2009 2010
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IMPACT OF GAS PRICES
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 49
Mar
ket S
hare
Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy
2008 20102009
Gas
Pric
e pe
r Gal
lon
Gas Prices vs. Segment Share:Economy Cars
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 50
Mar
ket S
hare
Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy
2008 20102009
Gas
Pric
e pe
r Gal
lon
Gas Prices vs. Segment Share:Hybrid Vehicles
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Conclusions
Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth in new vehicles registrations, relatively stable for used vehicles. 2010 closed 11.3% higher than 2009
Ford, Hyundai, Nissan and Chrysler continue to gain market share. While Toyota, GM and Honda lost share.
Corporate loyalty increased across the industry, with GM ending the year in the lead, followed closely by Ford. Subaru had the highest increase in loyalty, followed by Hyundai.
Variations in finance type and lending source can have large impact on customer loyalty. The degree to which manufacturers and lenders capitalize on this varies.
Success of select vehicle segments is very sensitive to gas prices. Domestic manufacturers are better positioned in terms of product to defend share during times of rising fuel costs.
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