Dynamics Model of a Net-Zero Neighborhood
Brandon DavisAlabama Agricultural and MechanicalUniversity
Dr. Gilbert WeigandComputing and Computational ScienceDirectorate
August 2009
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Overview
• Background
• Methods
• Results
• Conclusions
• Future work
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Background
• America is – addicted to foreign oil
• In 1970, imported 24% of oil currently nearly 70% and rising• Largest wealth transfer ever known to world underway from west to Middle East
– losing jobs to foreign competitors• Since 1999 25% of manufacturing jobs lost to foreign competition*• Between 2001 and 2003 (that’s 2 years), Goldman Sachs and Company estimates that 20% of
technology jobs have moved overseas, including sophisticated design and innovation jobs
– Not leading in the global energy and climate debate• Between 1990 and 2005 U.S. CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion tons (GT) to 7.2 GT/yr• Between 2005 and 2030, additional growth of CO2 emissions will be 2.5 GT** (35%)• U.S. faces growing energy needs and costs in all sectors: residential, commercial, industrial,
and Transportation• U.S. faces progressive environmental policy discussion for future, Cap and Trade, higher CAFÉ
standards, renewables and conservation incentives, climate protocols, and NIMBY and BANANA***
* Apollo Alliance, www.apolloalliance.org** U.S Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency*** NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard; BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything
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U.S. energy consumption flow
Renewablesand Nuclear
• 5.9% Renewables
• 8.1% Nuclear
Fossil
• 22.9% coal(0% imported)
• 40.1% oil(>60% imported)
• 22.7% gas(16% imported)
Electricitygeneration
29% renewables & nuclear70% fossil (coal & gas only)
14%
86%
Lostenergy(from electricity generation, transmission, and distribution)
27%38%
20%
24%
28%
Industrial
14% electricity33% gas39% oil
Transportation
99% oil
% of TotalEnergy Sources =
Energy sources Energy consumption
2005 U.S. Energy Flowsfrom: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory(Total U.S. energy sources = approximately 100 Quadrillion BTUs <=> 50 million railroad cars full of coal or 50 billion gas-tanks full of gasoline)
Residentialand Commercial
45% electricity41% gas12% oil
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•Take transportation off the gasoline grid
And
•Take residential off the grid
Net-zero neighborhood
Bio = biologically derived energy generation Industrial Scale Wind
ESP
Solar
5
Net-Zero Neighborhood Model
Battery
grid
Industrial scale-solarIndustrial scale-solar
grid
Cloud
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Methodology
• Use Stella simulation software to create a dynamic model
• Represents energy consumption of population of 300,000
• Prove Net-Zero neighborhood trend works
• Show lower CO2 emissions
• Show decrease in gasoline consumption
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Net-Zero Neighborhoodsand the Smart Grid
Net-ZeroCommercial and ESPs
FossilCoal, Oil & Gas
Nuclear
Electric
transportation
Natio
nal G
rid
Hyd
ro
Solar
Win
d
Geo-
thermal
Nat
ion
al G
rid
E-S
tora
ge
and
loca
l sm
art
gri
d
Other
E-S
torag
e and
loca
l sma
rt grid
Net-Zero
Residential and ESPs
Centralpower
500-mile batteries
500-mile batteries
Local Gen
Local Gen Local G
en
Local G
en
Electric
transportation
Elect
ric
transp
ortatio
n
Elect
ric
transp
ortatio
n
Energy storage Energy
stora
ge
Energy
stora
ge Energy storage
• Incorporate the energy storage (e.g., batteries) into local smart grid
• Electric transportation becomes point to point mass transit
• Net-zero neighborhoods use local generation
• Energy service providers net-zero neighborhoods along with providing local generation
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Governing Equations
• Model as an initial value problem
• dEk = fi dt and solve using Euler’s method
• Euler’s equation first terms of Taylor series expansion
• Ek = energy
• fi = generation
• ti = time
• 24 hour time period
dtfdE ik *
nn
atn
afat
afatafaEtE )(*
!
)(...)(*
!2
)('')(*)(')()( 2
01
0001 ,...),(
tth
EthfEE
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Net-Zero Neighborhood Simulation Map
Model
Net-ZeroCommercial & ESPs
FossilCo
al, Oil & Gas
Nuclear
Electric
Transportation
Natio
nal G
rid
Hyd
ro
Solar Win
d
Geo-
thermalNat
ion
al G
rid
E-S
tora
ge
&L
oc
al S
ma
rt G
rid
Other
E-S
tora
ge &
Lo
ca
l Sm
art G
rid
Net-ZeroResidential & ESPs
CentralPower
500-Mile Batteries
500-Mile Batteries
Local Gen
Local Gen Local G
en
Local G
en
Electric
TransportationEle
ctric
Transp
ortatio
n
Elect
ric
Transp
ortatio
n
Energy Storage
Energy
Stora
ge
Energy
Stora
ge Energy Storage
Net-z
ero
neighborh
ood
EV
Commercial
ESP
Residential
Nuclear CoalOil Gas
Electricity
Storage
Hybrid
• NZN = Local Storage + Local Generation + Electrify Transportation
• NZN integrates seamlessly with other energy generation plans and the national grid
• NZN = Local Storage + Local Generation + Electrify Transportation
• NZN integrates seamlessly with other energy generation plans and the national grid
Stella model
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Stella model
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Results
StorageConsumption
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Simulation Results
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Discussion of Results
• Comparison between 2010 and 2030 were analyzed account 50 percent net-zero generation and 50 percent transportation
• Local storage switches all energy generation forms, e.g., solar and wind, into base load capacity
• At 50% market penetration– NZN reduces CO2 emissions by more than 50%– NZN can reduce oil imports by as much as 50%
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Conclusion
• NZN effectively reduces U.S.:– CO2 emissions and oil imports – creates U.S. jobs in NZN locals– national environmental sustainability goals – energy security goals
• NZN effectively reduces U.S.:– CO2 emissions and oil imports – creates U.S. jobs in NZN locals– national environmental sustainability goals – energy security goals
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Future Work
• Develop more comprehensive model to include time zone, seasonal, and regional affects, and multiple year
• Investigate specific R&D options for 500-mile battery to electrify transportation and 50% efficient solar cells
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Acknowledgements
• Dr. Gilbert Weigand, Debbie McCoy, Rashida Askia, Dr. Z.T. Deng, Alabama A&M University
• Office of science
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Department of Energy
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Questions