11
Early Warning & DRM System of Pakistan –
Learning from Good Practices
South Asia Hyderomet Forum By
M. Idrees Mahsud
Member (DRR), NDMA
Sequence
2
Hazard Profile and Disaster Management System in Pakistan
Early Warning Systems and Linkages with DM
System
Good Practices & Focus on DRR
Challenges & Priority Areas
3
Hazard Profile of Pakistan
Pak Flood Hazard Map
Flood 2010Flood 2011Flood 2012Flood 2013Flood 2014Floods 2010-2015
Cumulative Flood Extent
Flood Vulnerability
4
Flood 2015
Pak Cyclone Hazard Map
Cyclone Vulnerability
2010
Cyclone Phet
2007
Cyclone Yemyin
5
Pak Drought Hazard Map
Drought Vulnerability
6
Pak Avalanche Hazard Map
Avalanche Vulnerability
7
Pak GLOF Hazard Map
GLOF Vulnerability
8
Global Climate Risk Index
Long Term Climate Rate Index
9
CRI (97-2016)
Country CRI Score DeathsDeaths per
100,000 pers
Total Losses (USD
Millions)
Losses per GDPUnit %
Number of Events duringPeriod
1 Honduras 12.17 301.65 4.28 961.11 1.968 62
2 Haiti 13.50 280.40 2.96 418.77 2.730 72
3 Myanmar 14.00 7,097.75 14.55 1,277.86 0.694 43
4 Nicaragua 19.33 162.45 2.96 234.60 1.127 44
5 Philippines 20.17 859.55 0.98 2,893.41 0.611 289
6 Bangladesh 26.50 641.55 0.44 2,311.07 0.678 187
7 Pakistan 30.50 523.10 0.33 3,816.52 0.605 141
8 Vietnam 31.83 312.60 0.37 2,029.80 0.549 216
9 Thailand 33.83 139.60 0.21 7,696.59 0.967 137
10 Dominican Republic 34.00 210.90 2.32 243.53 0.262 49
Source: German Watch
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan
Global versus PakistanDecadal Mean Temperature Trends
The mean temperature rise after 1950s over Pakistan is
twice as fast as the Global Mean Change
Period Global Pakistan
1901-2000 0.06 °C 0.06°C
1956-2005 0.12 °C 0.16°C
1971-2005 0.15 °C 0.26°C
1981-2005 0.17 °C 0.39°C
1991-2005 0.33 °C 0.74°C
2010-2039 0.7°C* 1°C
Increased Temperatures 2016 - 2035 (IPCC AR5)
10
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-17
Historical Disasters in Pakistan(Occurrence in Decade)
Avalanche Cyclone Drought Earthquake Floods
Landslides Hy Rains Tornado Windstorm
Flood – Most recurrent phenomena in Pakistan
11
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
19
50
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
59
19
73
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
81
19
83
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
94
19
95
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
48
8
37
8
31
9
30
1
23
4
5,1
34
68
4
3,4
85
33
8
2,2
27
29
9
13
4
75 8
58
3,0
10
84
3
37
6
10
,00
0
3,7
30
2,6
40
2,0
00
50
0
17
0Mil
lio
n U
S $
Flood Years
US$19,183 Million in 60 Years
US$ 19,040 Million in
6 Years Only
50% of total
direct losses during last
6 years
Historic Flood Damages – Pakistan
Total Direct Losses US$ 38,223 Million12
13
DRM System & Early Warning Mechanism
Disaster Management Structure as per NDM Act
NDM Act
NDMC
NDMA
Federal Departments
NDRF
Stakeholders
NIDM
PDMC
PDMAs
DDMAs
CommunityDistrict
Departments
Provincial Departments
Federal Level Provincial Level
Policy Formulation Prime Minister Sectt
Implementation
Disaster Management is a Devolved Subject
PMD/FFD F/G/S/PDMAs
NDMA
Federal Agencies,(Arm
y, Rescue 1122)
Provincial Line Departments
DDMA
Alerts(Warnings, Advisory )
District line Departments, tehsil & UC level local
Administration, Communities
Early Warning Dissemination
• Losses / Damages Data
• Rescue / Relief Data
• R&R Efforts
• Losses / Damages Data
• Rescue & Relief Activities
• Transboundary Water Flow Data• Satellite Imagery
• Imagery Analysis
• Relief Activities Data
• River Flow Data
• Canal Flow Data
• Dams Data
• Weather Forecasting
• Flood Forecasting
• Seismology
16
Sharing of Information
NDMA / NEOC
Federal / Provincial
Depts PDMAs /
DDMAs
Armed Forces
PCIW
UN / NGOs
SUPARCO
FFC
PMD / FFD
National Weather Forecasting Cen
(NWFC) Islamabad
Regional Meteorological Cen
Karachi
Regional Meteorological Cen
Lahore
Regional Meteorological Cen
Quetta
Regional Meteorological Cen
Peshawar
Flo
od
Fo
reca
stin
g D
ivis
ion
Lah
ore
(F
FD
)F
loo
d F
ore
castin
g &
Warn
ing
Cen
tre
Fo
r Lai N
ulla
h B
asin
Islam
ab
ad
Weather Forecasting Network of PMD
18
Early Warning Dissemination
Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning
Centre
Regional Drought Centre
National Centre for Drought/
Environment Monitoring
19
Early Warning Dissemination
1. Serve as a hub forthe collection,consolidation andanalysis of droughtrelated data
2. Prepare and issueweekly droughtmonitors & moisturestresses in differentregions of countrybased on variousindices
3. Advising governmentagencies on droughtrelated matters.
20
Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFWS)
Good Practice of EW System
• Providing AccurateForecasting & EarlyWarning with FloodForecast lead timeof one to twohours.
• Public WarningSystem for the twincities
• Early Warning System is integral part of National DRM planning.
• Replication of Urban Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System
• Satellite based Integrated Flood Alert System for flash floods
• Early Warning based insurance mechanisms.
• Pakistan Resilience Partnership (PRP) for involving stakeholders including
private / corporate sector in DRM
• Tap on the opportunities for Trans boundary Early Warning Mechanisms
Futuristic Early Warning System
Focus on DRR
22
Average Impact of
Disaster
$1.2-1.8
Billion
0.5 - 0.8%
3 – 4%
Major Flood Event Impact (Forecasted)
$15.5
Billion
7%
40%
Annual Economic Impact
% of GPD
% of Federal Budget
Economic Impact of Major Disasters Since 2005
Source: Fiscal Risk Assessment Options for Consideration, A Study by World Bank and GFDRR, 2015
National DRR Policy 2013
24
Risk Knowledge
Risk Atlas
Risk Assessments
Database
Research
Prevention &
Mitigation
DRR – High Risk Areas
Resilient Development
Key Infrastructure
Risk Awareness
Preparedness
Multi Hazard EWS
National Capacity
Financing Mechanisms
National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)
25
NDMP – 2013 to 2022
Interventions : 10
Strategies : 41
Projects : 118
Revised Cost : USD 2040.90 M
Timeframe : 10 Years (2013-22)
NDMP – Financial Outlay
26
InterventionCost
US$ M*Responsible Organization
Establish Institutional & Legal System for Disaster Management 2.30 NDMA, PDMAs
Prepare Disaster Management Plans - All levels 3.00 NDMA, PDMAs
National Hazard & Vulnerability Assessment 24.00NDMA, PDMAs, GSP, ERRA, GCISC,
FFC, PMD, WAPDA
Establish Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Evacuation Systems 188.50PMD, FFC, SUPARCO, Provincial
Irrigation Department
Promotion of Training, Education & Awareness in relation to Disaster Management 64.30
NIDM/NDMA, Civil Defense, Provincial
Education Departments
Disaster Management Awareness 14.00 NDMA, PDMAs, DDMAs
Infrastructure Development for DRR 1707.60 FFC, PID, Ministry of Ports & Shipping
Mainstreaming DRR into Development 1.20Ministry of Planning, Development and
Reforms, NDMA, PDMAs
Establish National Emergency Response System 31.00NDMA, PDMAs, DDMAs, M/O IT, M/O
Information
Capacity Development - Post Disaster Recovery 5.00 NDMA, PDMAs
Total 2040.90
CHALLENGES & PRIORITY AREAS
27
28
Limited Capability of Meteorological Department
• Prediction of medium to long range forecasting – 7 to15 days
• Lacks in Quantitative Forecast of Extreme Events (2010 & 2014 floods)
• Accuracy in Seasonal Weather Prediction 50 – 60%
• No Upper Atmosphere Weather Data for Storm Tracking
• No Urban Flood Forecasting System except for Islamabad – Rawalpindi
Challenges for Disaster Management
Challenges for the Disaster Management
29
• Overlapping legal and institutional structures
• Vulnerability against floods till implementation of NFPP – IV
• Trans boundary Sharing of information
• Disaster Information Management System
• DM System at District Level needs further strengthening
• Micro level vulnerability Risk assessment needs to be completed at the
earliest for streamlining land use planning, future developments, need
assessment , allocation of resources etc.
Challenges for the Disaster Management
30
• Mainstreaming DRR into Development Planning and implementation
• Building codes implementation
• Retrofitting of existing infrastructure for DRR compliance
NDMA PRIORITIES
31
NDMA’s Priorities
32
• Legal and institutional Reforms
• Multi- Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessments at Micro Level (UC level)
• Enhance resilience capacity of communities through CBDRM, advocacy and awareness.
• Enhance early warning capacities for multi hazards
• Develop Disaster Management information System
• Capacity Building of the Government Officials
• Enhance Response and logistic capacities
• Focus on Gender Equality and Vulnerable Groups
NDMA’s Priorities
33
• Smart National Disaster Response Force (NDRF)
• Pakistan School Safety Framework
• Building Codes implementation
• DRM Services and Weather forecasting project with the support of World Bank – A major
investment initiative
• National Disaster Risk Management Fund – a permanent investment window for DRR and
Preparedness
• Risk Financing Mechanisms including Macro & Micro level risk insurance mechanisms
Thank you
34