![Page 1: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes
Regional Data Exchange WorkshopUniversity at Buffalo
May 15, 2008
Joseph AtkinsonGreat Lakes ProgramUniversity at Buffalo
![Page 2: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Use of models in management/decision makingIn
crea
sing
util
ity
Data
Information
Knowledge and understanding
Decision making
Increasing resource and knowledge requirements
Modeling
Analysis and visualization
Synthesis and forecasting
Adaptive management
![Page 3: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Management/modeling Issues• Water quantity and flows (hydrologic model)
– Hydropower, shipping, recreational boating – Controls at Lake Superior and Lake Ontario– Diversions – Changes in habitat (wetlands), fisheries
• Pollution, eutrophication (hydrodynamic, nutrients)– Algal blooms and HABs
• Invasive species (ecological model)• Persistent toxic chemicals (water quality model)
– Organics, metals, etc.; bioaccumulation– Contaminated sediments (IJC areas of concern)
(sediment transport model)• Climate change (multiple concerns, models)
Focus on integrated modeling approaches
![Page 4: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Other issues/features• International waters• Closed basin circulation• Coastal flows, upwelling and downwelling• River/lake interactions• Vertical suspended solids structure (benthic
nepheloid layer)– Cycling of organics
• Vertical and horizontal (thermal bar) stratification
• Water/sediment interactions• Atmospheric deposition and exchange• Point and non-point source loads
![Page 5: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What is a model?• Idealized representation of the real system
– Conceptual– Simple analytical– Physical
– Mathematical (numerical)
– Expressed in terms of “governing equations”• Differential equations describing conservation statements
(mass, momentum, energy, etc.)– Constitutive relations (equation of state, coefficients)– Incorporate approximations --- “all models are wrong”
• Scale and resolution (time and space)• Processes to be considered• Numerical approximations (computer solutions)
Light
Nutrients
Temperature
Grazing, mortality
Algal biomass kCtd
Cd
t
C
![Page 6: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What are models used for?
• Integrate and synthesize data– ex: water level regulation in Lake Ontario
• Simulate the “real world”– Demonstrate understanding of system
• Allow experimentation, evaluation of “what if” scenarios
• Convey results – Graphics, tables, etc.– Management support, options, risk
![Page 7: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Model application
Problem statement
CalibrationConfirmation
(system understanding)
Conceptual frameworkManagement, scientific questions
Processes to consider,Resolution
Model formulation
Scenarios(test management
options)
Solution method
Risk and uncertainty
iteration
Data
![Page 8: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Examples
• Algal bloom monitoring and modeling (MERHAB)
• Source locations and resource sheds
• Integrated coastal ecosystem model
• New York Ocean and Great Lakes Ecosystem Conservation
• Sediment transport
![Page 9: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Hydrodynamic and particle tracking tools
• Three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Princeton Ocean Model, POM)
• Uses actual or historic meteorological data– Forecasting based on actual, current conditions
• Current applications using surface velocity field– Any level can be used
• POM produces velocity and diffusion fields
![Page 10: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Hydrodynamic and particle tracking tools (con’d)
• Lagrangian (particle tracking) approach – Random walk algorithm– Conservative, passively transported particles
(like a water molecule)
• Gridless model, but interpolates from POM grid values
![Page 11: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Random walk algorithm
Deterministic component = real velocity + pseudo velocity;Stochastic component = random walk based on diffusivity
tDzt
x
Duxx x
xnn
21In x direction,
(similar for y direction)
Iterative approach used to account for changes in velocity and diffusivity values at initial and final location
Particle movement = deterministic component + stochastic component
deterministic stochastic
![Page 12: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Application to Lake Erie
• Forward and backward tracking
• August and May conditions– General circulation– Source areas
• One-day, one-week and one-month resource shed simulations
• Connection with watershed model
![Page 13: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
“Particles” move with predicted water flow
General circulation Point release (bloom tracking)
Forward tracking
![Page 14: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Source regions - Western Basin Lake Erie
![Page 15: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
“Long-term” vision - MERHAB-LGL project
(Monitoring and Event Response for Harmful Algal Blooms)
• Provide predictions of algal bloom growth and movement, with certainty estimates, to predict potential impacts in Great Lakes basin
– “Early warning system”/management tool– Focus on Lakes Erie and Ontario
![Page 16: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Approach
• Run hydrodynamic model (POM) continuously– Maintain initial conditions for forecast runs
• Click on map of lake, or enter location (web based application)
• Run hydrodynamic model for desired forecast period (several days to several weeks)
– Historical or forecast meteorological data – Produce velocity and diffusivity fields
• Run particle tracking/population model– Different modes possible:
o Multiple “particles”o Backtracking
![Page 17: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
User interface
Database
(MySQL)
Input module
Hydrodynamic model
(POM)
Data sources
(NOAA/NWS)
Run/Forecast module
Execution module
Output module
Particle tracking model
(PTM)
Basic system arrangement (web-based modeling interface):
![Page 18: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Resource sheds - overview
• Resource sheds in coastal waters (Great Lakes)– Motivation– What are they?
• Hydrodynamic and particle tracking tools
• Application to Lake Erie
• Integration with watershed model
![Page 19: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Motivation
• Determine source of materials (resources) to a particular area– Zebra mussels– Algae blooms
• Understand physical “connectivity” among different areas of the lake
![Page 20: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What are they?(how are they calculated?)
• Particle tracking, used in combination with hydrodynamic model, to illustrate circulation and flow patterns– backtracking
• “Single release” – all locations from which materials originate at a common time– One day, one week, one month, etc.
• Pathlines – full trajectories over time period of interest
• “Continuous release” - particle positions plotted for continuous release to “fill in” all locations that may be contributing to a location of interest during the chosen time period
![Page 21: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
One-day backtracks (August)
![Page 22: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
One-week
![Page 23: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
One-week (May)
![Page 24: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
One-month
![Page 25: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Density plots
![Page 27: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Example Resource Shed Distributions Defined with Particle BacktrackingExample Resource Shed Distributions Defined with Particle Backtracking(in Western & Central Lake Erie)(in Western & Central Lake Erie)
1 day1 day
1 week1 week
2 weeks2 weeks
3 weeks3 weeks
1 month1 month
Central Basin Site 311 August 31Central Basin Site 311 August 31
00
maxmax
![Page 28: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Example Resource Shed Distributions Defined with Particle BacktrackingExample Resource Shed Distributions Defined with Particle Backtracking(in Western & Central Lake Erie)(in Western & Central Lake Erie)
1 day1 day
1 week1 week
2 weeks2 weeks
3 weeks3 weeks
1 month1 month
Western Basin Site 835 August 31Western Basin Site 835 August 31
00
maxmax
![Page 29: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
General components – coastal ecosystem model
(intensive monitoring study in Lake Ontario summer 2008)
• Want to test “biological filtering”, or “near-shore shunt” hypothesis
• Include interactions with shore and with open water
• Combined physical/chemical/biological structure• Synthesize data, evaluate system responses to
various stressors, provide predictive capabilities (hypothesis testing)
![Page 30: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Considerations
• Define state variables
• Desired temporal and spatial resolution– Nested model?– Same resolution for all components?
• Data availability
• Match watershed model(s) with lake model
• Time period of simulation
![Page 31: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Data needs
• Meteorological (wind speed and direction, air temp., dew point, etc.)
• Point, non-point sources– Flows, temperatures, concentrations, ….
• Benthic conditions– Sediment, algae, ….
• In-lake currents and temperatures, concentrations, ….
• Desired level of detail in time and space
![Page 32: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Possible approaches (model team)
• Existing models:– POM (hydrodynamic)– Saginaw Bay model (food web interactions,
bioaccumulation)– Particle tracking– LOTOX (water quality)– Delft/Elcom (hydrodynamics, water quality)– Cladophora growth– Watershed (?) – SWAT, other– Others (?)
• Canada/US – 3 focus areas each (proposed)
![Page 33: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Proposed model
Coastal zone ecosystem model
Watershed,hydrological
Hydrodynamics
Particle tracking
Sediment transport
Ecological (nutrients, lower food web)
Chemical fate and transport
Cladophora growth
Input data:Geometry, bathymetry, topographyLand use, soil typeInitial conditionsMeteorology
Output:Tributary flows, loadingsLake circulation, water temperature, bottom shearP concentrations, biomass
![Page 34: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Simple 2 - box model
inflows outflows
transport
Near-shore region
Off-shore region
![Page 35: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
“Basic” model• Mass balance for near-shore (NS) region:
or
• Mass balance for off-shore (OS) region:
or
NSNSNSOSNSexNSinNSNS VCkCCQQCQC
dt
VCd
OSOSOSOSNSexOSOS VCkCCQ
dt
VCd
NS
OSexinNSNS
NS
exNS
V
CQQCCk
V
dt
dC
NSOS
exOSOS
OS
exOS CV
QCk
V
Q
dt
dC
![Page 36: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Sample results
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (days)
C (
mg
/l)
C_NS C_OS
![Page 37: Ecological Forecasting for the Great Lakes Regional Data Exchange Workshop University at Buffalo May 15, 2008 Joseph Atkinson Great Lakes Program University](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649e705503460f94b6e56d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Conclusions
• We’re ready