EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Ecological modelling in Ecological modelling in the North Sea – data the North Sea – data
needs and policy needs and policy perspectiveperspective
David K. Mills David K. Mills
Johan van der MolenJohan van der Molen
Cefas, Lowestoft, UKCefas, Lowestoft, UK
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Policy ContextPolicy Context
• Eutrophication - Eutrophication - OSPAR OSPAR definition :definition : ““the the enrichmentenrichment of of water by nutrients, especially water by nutrients, especially nitrogen and/or phosphorus, nitrogen and/or phosphorus, causing an causing an accelerated growth accelerated growth of algae and higher forms of of algae and higher forms of plant life to produce an plant life to produce an undesirable disturbance undesirable disturbance to the to the balance of organisms present balance of organisms present in the water and to the quality in the water and to the quality of water concernedof water concerned””
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Cefas/NIOZ GETM-ERSEM
www.nioz.nl/northsea_model
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Policy ContextPolicy Context
• OSPAR OSPAR PARCOM PARCOM Recommendation 88/2: Recommendation 88/2: has a requirement to aim has a requirement to aim to to achieve a substantial achieve a substantial reductionreduction (of the order of (of the order of 50%) in inputs of 50%) in inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen phosphorus and nitrogen into areas demonstrating into areas demonstrating eutrophication problems.eutrophication problems.
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Policy questionsPolicy questions1.1. Is the OSPAR Is the OSPAR nutrient reduction nutrient reduction
strategy likely to eliminate strategy likely to eliminate eutrophication eutrophication in all Problem Areas?in all Problem Areas?
2.2. To what extent does the To what extent does the TransBoundary Transport of TransBoundary Transport of NutrientsNutrients between national maritime between national maritime areas areas contribute to eutrophicationcontribute to eutrophication??
3.3. What What evidenceevidence is there to is there to contestcontest the European courts the European courts infraction infraction proceedings against the UK proceedings against the UK under under the UWWTD contending that several the UWWTD contending that several water bodies (6) are eutrophic water bodies (6) are eutrophic (under the UWWTD)(under the UWWTD)
Problem Area
Non -Problem Area
Potential Problem Area
Outcome to 2nd Application OSPAR CP
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Model application – infraction Model application – infraction proceedingsproceedings
• Use simple, easy to understand, Use simple, easy to understand, risk assessment modelrisk assessment model
• Draw in Draw in UK expertise UK expertise to prepare for model application, to prepare for model application, review results, distil advice to Defrareview results, distil advice to Defra
• Specific attention give to Specific attention give to calculate uncertainty calculate uncertainty in resultsin results
• Iterative application Iterative application – run model, interpret results, – run model, interpret results, provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain feedback, re-run model.feedback, re-run model.
• Specific question – does the naturally Specific question – does the naturally ‘high’ turbidity ‘high’ turbidity in in UK coastal waters UK coastal waters limitlimit the susceptibility to the susceptibility to eutrophication eutrophication
• Answer - Answer - YESYES many water bodies experience many water bodies experience strong strong light limitationlight limitation and so susceptibility is reduced. and so susceptibility is reduced.
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
OSPAR - Ecosystem Modelling
Norway
• Utilise established capability in ecosystem modelling in member countries
• OSPAR created collaborative infrastructure
• 6 countries 7 models• OSPAR Intersessional
Correspondance Group on Eutrophication Modelling – (ICG-EMO) www.cefas.co.uk/eutmod
• Formed 2005 – works to OSPAR ToR’s
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
OSPAR: will the strategy to combat OSPAR: will the strategy to combat eutrophication be effective?eutrophication be effective?
• Use coupled 3D-hydrodynamic Use coupled 3D-hydrodynamic ecosystem modelsecosystem models
– Realstic riverine Realstic riverine nutrient reduction nutrient reduction scenario’sscenario’s
– Calculate Calculate transport of nutrients transport of nutrients across across maritime boundariesmaritime boundaries
• Multi-model ensemble approach Multi-model ensemble approach through international working group through international working group (ICG-EMO) –3 workshops(ICG-EMO) –3 workshops
• CommonCommon forcing, calibration and forcing, calibration and validation data, and model validation data, and model comparisoncomparison
• Outcome Outcome scrutinisedscrutinised by OSPAR by OSPAR and formal ICES reviewand formal ICES review
Model domains
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Quality assurance in model applicationQuality assurance in model application• Riverine nutrient data Riverine nutrient data
improvedimproved
• Composite data Composite data from North from North Sea partners to create new Sea partners to create new data source for model data source for model calibration and validationcalibration and validation
• Quantitative approach to Quantitative approach to assess assess model performancemodel performance (cost functions)(cost functions)
• Results presented in Results presented in scientific meetings and scientific meetings and published in published in peer reviewed peer reviewed paperpaper
Lenhart H,. Mills, D.K, Baretta-Bekker, H., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., Baretta, J.W., Blaas, M., Desmit, X., Kühn, W., Lacroix, G., Los, H.J., Ménesguen, A., Neves, R., Proctor, R., Ruardij, P., Skogen, M.D, Vanhoutte-Brunier, A., Villars, M.T., S. L. Wakelin (2010). Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of theNorth Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 81, 148-170
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Validation 2002Validation 2002 NL-C3NL-C3
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Nutrient reduction scenario testingNutrient reduction scenario testing
ammoniumammonium
19851985 20022002
Different load reductions for TOxN (NO2+NO3), NH4 and PO4
Different load reductions for each country required to construct realistic nutrient reduction scenarios
50%, 70% reduction of 1985 levels in 2002
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Netherlands offshore water body (NL02) resultsNetherlands offshore water body (NL02) results
NL-O2 - parameter response to 50% nutrient load reduction
0
10
20
30
40
50
DIN DIP Chl O2min
red
uct
ion
(%
)
NL-O2 - parameter response to 70% nutrient load reduction
0
10
20
30
40
50
DIN DIP Chl O2min
red
uct
ion
(%
)
NL-O2 - mean winter DIN at surface
02468
10121416
0 20 40 60 80
nutrient load reduction (%)
µm
ol/l
NL-O2 - mean winter DIP at surface
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 20 40 60 80
nutrient load reduction (%)
µm
ol/l
NL-O2 - mean summer chlorophyll at surface
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 20 40 60 80
nutrient load reduction (%)
µg
/lNL-O2 - annual oxygen minimum at
bottom
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 20 40 60 80
nutrient load reduction (%)
mg
/l
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 20 40 60 80
UK-Cef DE NL
NO UK-P OL ass. level
0
10
20
30
40
50
DIN DIP Chl O2min
UK-Cef DE NL UK-POL mean
Mean winter DIN at surface
Mean winter DIP at surface
Mean summer Chl at surface
Annual O2 mini- mum at bottom
Indicator response to 50% reduction
Indicator response to 70% reduction
NL02NL02
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Harmonised assessmentHarmonised assessmentparameters of the parameters of the
Common ProcedureCommon Procedure
DataDataCommonCommon
Proce-Proce-duredure20022002
GermanyGermanyECOHAM4ECOHAM4
NetherlandsNetherlandsDelft3D-GEMDelft3D-GEM
UK (POL)UK (POL)POLCOMS-ERSEMPOLCOMS-ERSEM
UK (Cefas)UK (Cefas)GETM-BFMGETM-BFM
NorwayNorwayNORWECOMNORWECOM
20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 50% 50% redred
Cat. ICat. I
Winter DIN Winter DIN - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Winter DIP Winter DIP - + + 0 - - - - - - - - - - -
N:P ratio N:P ratio - - - - - - - - - - + - - - -
Cat. IICat. II
Chl mean Chl mean - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 - - -
Chl max Chl max - - - - + + + + + + + + + - -
Indicator Indicator species species
-/+ n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Cat. IIICat. IIIOxygen minOxygen min + + + - + + + + + + + - - + +
Organic matterOrganic matter + n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a na na
Nutrient reduction scenario resultsNutrient reduction scenario resultsModel results presented in OSPAR Model results presented in OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure reporting formatComprehensive Procedure reporting format
Results for Netherlands Offshore water bodyResults for Netherlands Offshore water body
Scenario 1 and 2 is 50% and 70% reduction respectivelyScenario 1 and 2 is 50% and 70% reduction respectively
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
UK2: HumberUK2: Humber
Transboundary Transboundary nutrient transportnutrient transport
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
NL1: RhineNL1: Rhine
Pelagic + Pelagic +
BenthicBenthic
Pelagic + Pelagic +
BenthicBenthic
Pelagic + Pelagic +
BenthicBenthic
Transboundary Transboundary nutrient transportnutrient transport
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Contribution to annual average total N Contribution to annual average total N from all sourcesfrom all sources
National Maritime National Maritime AreasAreas
OSPAR-ICG-OSPAR-ICG-EMO areasEMO areas
NetherlandsNetherlands GermanyGermany
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
OutcomesOutcomesModel work funded by Defra led by Cefas has resulted in Model work funded by Defra led by Cefas has resulted in
• Amendment OSPAR strategy: a Amendment OSPAR strategy: a 50% reduction 50% reduction in riverine in riverine nutrient input (compared to 1985) nutrient input (compared to 1985) may not be sufficientmay not be sufficient to to eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies.eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies.
• Availability of Availability of quantitative information on transboundary quantitative information on transboundary pollution (nutrient) transport pollution (nutrient) transport between maritime areas between maritime areas allowing robust allowing robust eutrophication mitigation strategies eutrophication mitigation strategies to be to be developeddeveloped
• Clear Clear science based evidence science based evidence on the reduced susceptibility on the reduced susceptibility of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that contributed to the UK defence contributed to the UK defence against the European Court against the European Court infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTD infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTD
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Lessons Learned
• Data gathering extremely hard work and time consuming
• Availability of riverine nutrient flux data at European scale problematic especially for recent (3-4 y) data
• National marine monitoring data invaluable for calibration and validation
• Collaborative working through ICG-EMO extremely efficient (task sharing, interpretation)
• International multi-model ensemble approach essential for use of models to advise policy end-user – helps to reduce conflict in international/European policy fora.
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Data Needs
• Good spatial coverage
• Multiple parameters
• More years (currently 1988/89 and 2002)
• Long-term time series (several decades)
• Near-real time river runoff and nutrient load data
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Current and Future Developments
• EMECO: web-based assessments
• Western Shelf Observatory: monitoring shelf-ocean exchange
• 50-year hind cast of North Sea ecosystem dynamics (movie?)
• Egg and larvae particle tracking: MPA potential interconnectivity
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
European Marine ECosystem Observatory
Raw
data h
old
ing
Real time
Delayed mode
Delayed mode
QC/
QA
Hindcast
Forecast
QA’d
Databases
ICESDelayed mode
EM
EC
O D
atatoo
l Interface
EMODNET
MERMAN
EMECOAssessment
database
EM
EC
O U
ser Qu
ery
DataXML, CSV
UK/EU sources
EMECO Web – enabled Datatools
Assessment map
Time-series
KML–Google Earth
GMES - MyOcean
Real time
Delayed mode
Gridded data
CPR Delayed mode QA’d
Data
Information and evidence ‘pipeline’
Calibration
Validation
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Western Shelf Observatory
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Stratification, OystergroundsStratification, Oystergrounds
T
Strength
Duration
Onset
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
MPA potential interconnectivityMPA potential interconnectivity
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
??
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010
Communication strategyAim - to ensure full understanding of policy customer needs
• Gain full understanding of Defra requirements– Regular direct contact between policy customer and Cefas
advisory staff– Participation by Cefas staff in relevant international and UK
policy for a e.g. OSPAR EUC, UK Eutrophication Committee (?)– Defra and Cefas jointly developing specification for
commissioned work
• Transmit knowledge to Defra– Regular formal and informal contact between policy and
advisory staff– Multiple communication methods – meetings, written reports,
web-reporting, formal presentations, workshops– 2-way communications with prioritised & rapid response to Defra– Complex model results communicated in a meaningful way to
policy customers.