Economic Costs of Critical Infrastructure Failure in El
Paso-Juarez Region
Border to Border Transportation ConferenceNovember 20, 2014
Jeff Shelton, Sharada Vadali, Gabriel Valdez, Shailesh Chandra, Arturo Bujanda
Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Mike MedinaEl Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
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Contents
• The Context• Extreme Event Modeling
Framework• Economic Framework• Concluding Remarks
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The Context: Cross Border Trade FlowsTrade Value (Billions $) : 2013 ($507 Billion) ($280 b imports and
$226 b exports)
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TX Land Ports of Entry Are Vital for Trade and Will
Continue to be so..Name Total Trade
Value (Truck)
Export Value (Truck)
Import Value (Truck)
% Export Value
%Import Value
% Total Trade Value
Laredo, TX 117 54 63 17 21 19Detroit, MI 99 58 40 18 13 16Buffalo-Niagara, NY 62 37 26 12 9 10
El Paso, TX 51 22 29 7 10 8Port Huron, MI 48 30 18 10 6 8
Otay Mesa, CA 33 11 22 3 7 5Champlain Rouses Pt, NY
24 10 12 3 4 4
Hidalgo, TX 21 9 15 3 5 3Santa Teresa, NM 18 7 10 2 3 3Pembina, ND 17 12 5 4 2 3
Top 10 Ports by Trade Value (Billions of US$) ranked by total trade for USA- NAFTA partner trade in 2011. (U.S. DOT, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,TransBorder Freight Data, 2012)
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Aging Infrastructure – Underinvestment or
Disinvestment in Critical Links Could be Costly…
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What did we do?
• Developed a DTA model of the El Paso/Juarez region
• Ports-of-entry• Traffic signals• Accurate geometry• Traffic flow models
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Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling Framework to Simulate
Traffic Effects of Failures…
Port of Entry (POE) and the Bridge of the
Americas (BOTA)
Simulation Area: LPOE connecting to I-10 interchange.
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Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling –Simulated Area and
Infrastructure..
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Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic Implications... Teasing
out Domestic, International Flows
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Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic Costs to System Users
Zonal Trips
Data Output
Time Delay Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Fuel Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Operating Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Border Delay Costs
Industry Costs-Additional Freight Shipment Costs
Industry Costs-Additional Inventory Costs
Zonal TravelDistances
Short Term Long TermBase Case
Decide ‘Hotspot’ Zones based on Trip Volumes
Trip Diversion Rates
Cost Parameter and Inputs
Zonal Travel Times
Shippers and
Carriers
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Costs Imposed to Society Can be Large…
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What does this mean?
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Several weeks
42 mins
Next day130 mins
Before event31 mins
Average Travel Time - Trucks
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Preliminary Results and Conclusions
For the term immediate to disruption, the loss is at an accelerated rate of $2.5 million per day for the shippers and carriers. Peak periods have the highest loss.
Longer term costs on a per day basis are lower but will accumulate depending on length of replacement schedules and ability of trucks to shift to alternate POEs besides Zaragoza or Santa Teresa.
Regional spillover costs (indirect and induced) are not considered.
Possibilities include exploring mitigation strategies and looking at important supply chains and trade flows.
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Concluding Remarks (contd.)
Vital for agencies to consider regional resilience as part of preparedness and,
Continuity planning for businesses along corridors.
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Thank YouQuestions?