Download - Economic Indicators January 2013
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Economic Indicators
Last update 15.02.2013
| Economic Indicators | 2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2013
Europe:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,1% for 2013 and on 1,2% for 2014.
• While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly in January, the consumer confidence
indicator improved considerably.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.
While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more favorable, they
were considerably more optimistic about future business developments.
• Euro area GDP fell by 0,6% (q-o-q) in Q4 2012, a third straight quarter of decline. While
uncertainty and recession persist, there are signs that the downturn may have troughed. The
decline in industry has been ebbing and the PMIs for services and manufacturing show the
contraction slowing.
US:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for the US decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013. Forecast
for 2014 remained on 2,8%
• Q4 national accounts revealed that GDP declined by 0,1%, the first contraction since the 2009
recession. This was largely due to defence cuts that came into effect after Sept 30. Still,
domestic demand held up well and gain in payrolls is still holding up relatively well.
Japan:
• The February GDP growth forecast for Japan improved significantly from 0,7% to 1,2% for 2013
and from 1,0% to 1,2% for 2014.
• The Bank of Japan has unveiled plans for open-ended quantitative easing from 2014 in an
attempt to boost activity and meet a newly adopted 2,0% inflation target.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
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Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06
Q1
'07
Q1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
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Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
'06Q
1
'07Q
1
'08 Q
1
'09
Q1
'10 Q
1
'11 Q
1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
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Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
'08
/1
'09
/1
'10
/1
'11
/1
12
/1
2.3
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
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Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Feb 13
Jan 13; 2
Feb.13; 0,75
Feb.13; 0,25
-0,5
0,00,5
1,0
1,52,0
2,5
3,03,5
4,0
4,55,0
5,5
Jan
08
Ju
ly 0
8
Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
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Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
10.7
6
7
8
9
10
11
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
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Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Industrial confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in January.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
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Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in January.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
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Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
60
65
70
75
80
85
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
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Ifo Data
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Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13
The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
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Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13
The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
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Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Jan 13
GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
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Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Jan 13
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Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Feb 13
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.
While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last
month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The
German economy made a promising start into the New Year.
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Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Feb 13
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.
While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last
month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The
German economy made a promising start into the New Year.
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Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Ja
n 1
3
Jan
14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry remained fairly stable on -8 (after -7 in January).
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Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – January 2013:
Typically and according to seasonality the assessment of the current
business situation in the printing industry decreased strongly from
+21%points in December to now +1%, nearly the same level as in the
same month of last year (0%).
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remained nearly unchanged with -8%,
1% point down from the -7% in December.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 5th month in succession, but improved from -32%
to -16%.
Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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Zenith Data
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Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
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Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
At current prices
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Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12