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Ecosystem Function and Health Program
Problem Area:• Quantify and predict ecosystem responses to
environmental stressors (e.g. climate change).
• Develop statistical models to help managers make informed and defensible predictions.
Haiganoush K PreislerStatistical Scientist
PSW Research Station𝑑𝑁 (𝑡 )= {𝛽 (𝑢 ) 𝑁 (𝑡 )−𝜀𝑁 (𝑡 )+𝐴 (𝑡 )−𝛿𝑁 (𝑡 ) }+𝑑𝑉
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Understanding the influence of climate on1. mountain pine beetle outbreaks in:
• Lodgepole pine forests• Whitebark pine forests
2. wildland fire occurrence and size.
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How does climate influence beetle outbreaks?
Outbreaks
Beetle pressure
Remaining live trees
Drought stress
Adaptive seasonality
Winter mortalityProbability of an outbreak
Outbreak severity
USFS aerial detection surveys
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A mechanistic statistical model
Y = 1 if Stress on tree > Tree toleranceY = 0 otherwise
Stress = number of attacking beetles ~ g1(birth rate) + g2(btp) + g3(live trees)
S = f1( temp, drought) + f2(btp) + f3 (live trees)
T = f4 (drought) f ( ) ~ smooth functions to be
estimated from data
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Winter Mortality Adaptive Seasonality
Drought Stress
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Study location (LPP study)
Washington
Oregon
Contribution of beetle pressure vs. weather
weather important during initiation, collapse
beetle pressure most important
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Influence of Climate on Wildland Fire Occurrence and Size
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Climate Variable – Fire Weather Index (FWI)
Other Variables – Distance to road; Forest vs Ag land
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Predicted Probability of a large fire per 10km2
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11
Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change
Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change