Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Artist: Heyko Stoeber
Education Futures:
Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Riel Miller
EDUCATIONAL FUTURESLeadership and PracticeThe Open University, Milton Keynes, May 17,
2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Two Big Changes
Fundamental
indeterminacy and the
creativity of the universe
Heterarchy and the Learning Intensive Society
murmuration
1. In the way we think about the world.2. In the way we organize the world.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
1. Embracing Complexity: Changing the way we use the
future
Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
The End of Certainty
… we are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the present….
Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer identified with certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental trend present at all levels of nature.Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
The possible is not in the future it is in the past.“We must resign ourselves to the
inevitable: it is the real which makes itself possible, and not the possible which becomes real. But the truth is
that philosophy has never frankly admitted this continuous creation of
unforeseeable novelty.”
Henri Bergson, The Creative Mind
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Caught in the Probabilistic Stance: Probable, Possible, Plausible
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
What difference
does it make?After all everyday
life goes on.So why bother?• It changes what we see.• It changes what we
imagine.• It changes what we
resist.• It changes what we
preserve.• It changes how we
preserve what we want to preserve.
• It changes the conditions of change.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Then what? If we accept this ontological starting point – how to make it practical?
A. Take an anticipatory systems perspective that encompasses both animate and inanimate anticipation.
B. Distinguish the three ontological dimensions of the potential of the present – three ways of imagining the future and the different methods that are related to each (ontology-epistemology linked).
C. Learning processes that use collective intelligence – action research, reframing, and narrative capacity to question anticipatory assumptions – embracing complexity, spontaneity, improvisation.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
What is Futures Literacy?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy: ambient strategic thinking
Futures Literacy is the capacity to tell anticipatory stories using rigorous imagining based on sharing depth of knowledge from across the community. FL is a way of internalizing the constant development of our understanding of the potential of the emergent present and of changing anticipatory assumptions.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
A. Anticipatory Systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Anticipatory Systems View
S : object system
M : model of S
E : effector system
Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1985. Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
“The main difference between forecasting and scenarios on the one hand, and anticipation on the other, is that the latter is a property of the system, intrinsic to its functioning, while the former are cognitive strategies that a system A develops in order to understand the future of some other system B (of which A may or may not be a component element). … The theory of anticipatory systems can therefore be seen as comprising both first- and third-person information.”Roberto Poli, 2010
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
B. Three dimensions
of the potential of the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Contingency futures: a tsunami
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Contingency futures: winning the lottery
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Optimization Futures: Chess, Farming, Assembly Line
• Non-complex goal, known in advance and fixed
• Rules are given in advance and fixed
• Resources are given in advance and fixed
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Exploratory futures: imagining the potential of the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
C. Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method
Rigorous imagining – developing analytically rich and imaginative stories of a functioning society as a way to question our assumptions.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy: Decision Making CapacityUsing the Future for Knowledge Creation, Discovery and Communication
Narrative Capacity
Capacity to Reframe
Collective Intelligence
(interactive sense making)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy in Practice
• Level 1 futures literacy–Temporal awareness,
values, expectations
• Level 2 futures literacy–Rigorous imagining
• Level 3 futures literacy–Strategic scenarios
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Anticipatory Methods: Context Makes a Difference
ExplorationComplex
Simple Close
dOpe
n
Optimization
(chess game)
Aligning Anticipatory Contexts and Systems:
Embracing Complexity – Use Futures Literacy
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
2. The Learning Intensive Society Scenario – A Level 2
ModelTechnology
Economy
Governance
Society
Scale of the change:• Incremental radicalism
transforms everyday life• Within one or two generations• Disrupts most institutions• Alters culture & values
Attributes of the model:• Descriptive variables• Not limited by how it is done• Not causal• Not path• Imagining possibilities
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Industrial(goods & services,public & private)
Craft/Creative
Household
Agriculture
Agricultural
Society
Industrial Society
Learning
Intensive
Compositional Transformation
Share of total wealth creation by source
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Learning in every day life is more intense if, in daily life, over a lifetime, people generate (flow) and accumulate (stock) more:
– know-how
– know-who
– know-what
– know-why
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Greater Learning Intensity of Daily Life
Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; [email protected]
Average intensity of know-what
Average intensity of know-how
Average intensity of know-who
Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity)
Agricultural SocietyAgricultural Society Industrial SocietyIndustrial Society Learning SocietyLearning Society
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Moving to the Micro-Level: Complex societal evolution
• Economic • Social• Governan
ce
Photo credit: Mark Schacter, www.luxetveritas.ca
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Systemic Economic Transformation: Changes What and
How We Produce
“Next stage” of market economy – beyond mass-production and mass-consumption
• Unique creation – what is value?
• How do we organize value creation?
• Predominant type of economic activity
• Scope of transaction systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Unique creation
Low learning intensity
High learning intensity
Mass-producti
on
Creating wealth – changing sources of value-added
Mass-era worker
and consumer
Empowered team-worker,
informed shopper
Artist/researcher/
learner
Beyond the dualism of supply & demand
Organisation of Value Added
Relationship of actor(s) to
object
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Teasing the Imagination: Tools for Unique Creation
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
First car produced
using a “desk-top factory”
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Industrial EraSequential Production, Consumption, Resource
Deployment Process
Supply Demand Allocation Supply Demand Allocation Repeat cycle
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Conception
Management
Execution
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Starlings Flying in a FlockImagine Clouds of Unique Creation
Flows of Collaboration and Experience
Local and Global, Multiple Dynamic Communities - Heterarchical
Murmuration
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Describing Social Dimensions of the LIS
• Attributes of identity: – sources– structure– dynamics
• Patterns of social status - affiliation
• Ecology of culture - capacity to be free
Social dynamism
Towards greater heterogeneity
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Hetero-geneous/
small
Homo-geneous
/large Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how
Less choice
More choic
e
Scale of social
affiliation/identity
Identity & choice
Mass-era
Learning Intensiv
e Society
Beyond individual vs collective: banal creativity
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Describing Governance Dimensions of the LIS
Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity
Quality of decision making:• Extent to which best
information is used• Transparency of the network• Extent of opportunties to
experiment• Knowing how to learn
Dynamic Governance
Towards greater responsibility
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Governance: capacity to make decisions
Experimentation & learning
Transparency & access to
information
Limited & fragmente
d
Extensive &
unified
Mass-era
Learning Intensive Society
Limited
Continuous
Capacity for reframing and sense making: spontaneity
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Less manageable – less clarity of
goal
More reflexivity
More manageable –
more clarity of goal
Less reflexivity
Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity
Regime 1 (Agriculture)
Regime 2 (Industrial)
Regime 3 (Learning society)
A changing context for knowledge creation
New conditions for education leadership and practice
Different contexts and times?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
1 – More university graduates does not increase wealth nor lead to “greater
competitive” advantage
Why? Three sets of changes:A. The preponderant source of wealth
is no longer industrial (tangible or intangible).
B. The primary source of productivity increases is learning by doing, i.e. experience that allows for refinement of taste (self-knowledge)
C. Unique creation is local, ideas are global and tangibles are cheap
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Changing Composition of Output
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time
Perc
enta
ge S
hare
Industrial products Innovation (S&T/R&D)
Personal products Creativity (Refinement of taste)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
2 – Reducing classroom schooling helps to avoid fundamentalism
Functions of Industrial School• Custody: keeping pupils safe and secure (99%)
• Behavioural rules: instilling punctuality, obedience, respect for hierarchy (95%)
• Cognitive development: literacy, numeracy, test scores (?)
• Socialisation: internalisation of specific values towards civic life (?)
• Screening and sorting: reproduces (legitimately) socio-economic differences (95%)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Knowledge Creation and Destruction: Remembering, forgetting and
inventing
Living knowledge(stock)
Discovery(flow)
Public sectorPreservation Net
new
Private sectorPreservation Net
new
Cover it allNon-institutional
Source: Etienne Wegner
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
3 – The wealthiest societies have the highest average
ageThe productivity of unique creation and the quality of decision making capacity both increase, all other things being equal, with experience and better information – this is the wisdom economy – the know why society.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Transformation“Society is now at a stage in history in which one pulse is ending and another beginning. The immense destruction that a new pulse signals is both frightening and creative. It raises fundamental questions about transformation. The only way to approach such a period, in which uncertainty is very large and one cannot predict what the future holds, is not to predict, but to experiment and act inventively and exuberantly via diverse adventures in living.”C.S. “Buzz” Hollings, “Coping with Transformational Change”, Options, IIASA, Summer 2010
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
A time for method and methods for our time
Why futures literacy now? Because a futures literate society can use:– diversification, imagination and inter-
dependency to
• embrace spontaneity, experimentation & complexity
• without being overwhelmed by – fear of the risks (perception)– failure (reality of risk)
• in order to inspire aspirations consistent with a world where means are ends (values in practice)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Thank [email protected]
Image: Sempe
How we anticipate matters – it changes
the present