Download - EFCC Weather Outlook
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EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentBy River BasinBy River Basin
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Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentBy River BasinBy River Basin
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Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentBy River BasinBy River Basin
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentMt. Hood Test SiteMt. Hood Test Site
Average
So Far
Last Year
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Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentCascade Summit (Central Cascades)Cascade Summit (Central Cascades)
Average
This Year
Last Year
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Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentWolf Creek (NE Mountains)Wolf Creek (NE Mountains)
Average
This Year
Last Year
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Drought MonitorDrought MonitorMay 29th, 2012May 29th, 2012
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Drought MonitorDrought MonitorMay 29th, 2012May 29th, 2012
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
![Page 18: EFCC Weather Outlook](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022012903/5681592f550346895dc66105/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Precipitation ProbabilityPrecipitation ProbabilityJune 2012June 2012
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Precipitation ProbabilityPrecipitation ProbabilityJuly, August, SeptemberJuly, August, September
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Temperature ProbabilityTemperature ProbabilityJuly, August, SeptemberJuly, August, September
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
![Page 25: EFCC Weather Outlook](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022012903/5681592f550346895dc66105/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
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Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen
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El Niño/La Niña PredictionsEl Niño/La Niña PredictionsVarious Forecasting TechniquesVarious Forecasting Techniques
La Niña
El Niño
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El Niño/La Niña PredictionsEl Niño/La Niña PredictionsVarious Forecasting TechniquesVarious Forecasting Techniques
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ENSO Neutral SummersENSO Neutral Summers500mb Height500mb Height
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ENSO Neutral SummersENSO Neutral Summers500mb Height Anomaly500mb Height Anomaly
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ENSO Neutral SummersENSO Neutral Summers850mb Temperature Anomaly850mb Temperature Anomaly
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Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
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Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Paul WerthPaul Werth
19511951200920091963196319761976
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Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Paul WerthPaul Werth
19511951200920091963196319761976
Pete ParsonsPete Parsons
195119511972197220092009
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Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Paul WerthPaul Werth
19511951200920091963196319761976
Pete ParsonsPete Parsons
195119511972197220092009
Jim LittleJim Little
196319631972197220012001200920091975197520002000
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EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather OutlookBottom LineBottom Line
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EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather OutlookBottom LineBottom Line
In many respects a rather “average” In many respects a rather “average” summersummer
Driest areas east of CascadesDriest areas east of Cascades
Driest months August and SeptemberDriest months August and September
Best chances for dry lightning August Best chances for dry lightning August and Septemberand September
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EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
![Page 39: EFCC Weather Outlook](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022012903/5681592f550346895dc66105/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
![Page 40: EFCC Weather Outlook](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022012903/5681592f550346895dc66105/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
Questions?
Contact [email protected]