Download - emarketer us retail ecommerce outlook
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
A P R I L 1 8, 2 0 1 3
US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth?
Jeffrey GrauPrincipal Analyst
Sponsored by:
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey
Online sales
forecast
Product category forecast
Leading retailers
Shoppers & buyers forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
The outlook is bright for US retail ecommerce sales
14% CAGR
Online sales will grow more than 4 times the rate of 3.4% the NRF forecasts for total retail sales in 2013
Retail Ecommerce Sales Defined
Products/services ordered online or price and terms of sale negotiated online, even if payment or fulfillment occurs in-store
Included: o digital downloads (e.g., music from
iTunes and movies from Netflix)o Gross merchandise value (GMV) of
items sold on online marketplaces like Amazon and eBay
o Sales from US retail websites to foreign customers
Excluded:o Travel and event tickets sold online
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
What forces are influencing ecommerce growth?
Twitter – #eMwebinar
Waves of innovation
Mobile, globalization, omnichannel capabilities, online marketplaces, personalization, expedited fulfillment, new business models
Convenience, price and selection
Consumers find information, compare prices and access virtually limitless product selection at anytime, from anywhere
The Economy
After a burst of economic gains in January and February, job growth slowed to a trickle in March, raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile spending has begun to have an impact on ecommerce
Tablet Share of Mcommerce Sales
2013 2017
62.5% 71.5%
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
US ecommerce is also starting to get a boost from international sales
2013 Asia Ecommerce Facts
Asia-Pacific will surpass North America as the world’s biggest B2C ecommerce market
B2C ecommerce sales in Asia-Pacific will grow more than 30% vs. 12.2% in North America
China, India and Indonesia are driving the fast ecommerce growth in Asia-Pacific
China, the primary driver of Asia-Pacific growth, will surpass Japan as the region’s largest B2C ecommerce market
Note: B2C includes travel, digital downloads and event tickets salesSource: eMarketer, February 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Comparative estimates of ecommerce sales growth range from 10% to 14%
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Historically, research firms have been bearish in forecasting online sales
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Ecommerce is gradually accounting for more of total retail sales
…and the result is rising online sales penetration rates
Ecommerce is growing 2-3 times faster than total retail sales
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
But thinking about channels as distinct entities ignores how consumers shop
Eric BestCEOMercent
Sean CookCEOShopVisible
“This notion of channel is almost melting away. What’s important is how different channels influence each other and how to attribute customer engagement across them.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
“At some point that breakdown becomes immeasurable and irrelevant.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey
Online sales
forecast
Product category forecast
Leading retailers
Shoppers & buyers forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
The two largest product categories will account for 42.9% of total online sales in 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
A mix of larger and smaller online product categories will post the highest CAGRs from 2012-2017
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Several categories exceed the online penetration rate of 6% for total retail ecommerce sales
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Categories to watch: Apparel and accessories
Growth Enablers
Body scanning technology
Runway videos
360 degree product views
Home try-on programs
Market Position
Low Medium High
Size (billion) $54.2
Growth 17.2%
Penetration 14%
Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Categories to watch: CPG (groceries and personal care)
Market Position
Low Medium High
Size (billion) $18.3
Growth 15.2%
Penetration 1-4%
Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company
Growth Enablers
Automatic replenishment programs
Broader product selection
Faster and lower-cost delivery
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Categories to watch: Autos and parts
Market Position
Low Medium High
Size (billion) $25.5
Growth 9.2%
Penetration <5%
Source: eMarketer
Growth Enablers
In 2011, 35% of new vehicle buyers said they would buy a car online, up from 21% in 2009*
Powerful car dealership lobby has blocked the sale of cars online
Source: *Capgemini, Oct 2011
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey
Online sales
forecast
Product category forecast
Leading retailers
Shoppers & buyers forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Amazon is a powerful engine of ecommerce growthAmazon accounts for a large share of US online sales and is growing faster than ecommerce overall
If 2012 sales included the gross merchandise value from third-party merchants, Amazon’s contribution to US ecommerce sales would be around 25%.
Source: JMP Securities, March 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Two Amazon growth engines: Prime and its third-party sellers marketplace
Key Stats
Membership (millions)
2011 4
2012 10
2017 25
Annual Spend
Prime members $1,224
Non-members $505
Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners
Amazon said unit sales from its third-party sellers in the US increased more than 40% over the 2011 holiday season
Online marketplaces (e.g., Amazon, eBay, Rakuten and Sears) account for 27% online retail sales*
Marketplaces introduce consumers to unfamiliar retailersand greater product selection
Source: *ChannelAdvisor, 2012
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
A number of major retail chains reported strong online sales growth
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Factors attributed to strong growth
Source: Corporate earnings announcements as reported in Internet Retailer
Reduced conflict between its stores and website by restructuring company by major brands—Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic—as opposed to by stores, online, outlets and international
Better website search and navigation Richer product information Richer visualization tools Speedier order fulfillment and delivery
Increased coordination across digital and store channels
Upgraded mobile and online sites Enhanced customer engagement features
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Retailers attribute omnichannel initiatives with boosting sales growth
Stores-only
Stores + Web
Stores + Web + Mobile
1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: Miguel, Almeida, VP of ecommerce at Walgreens at a session at Retails’ Big Show 2013, sponsored by the National Retail Federation
3-1/2321
1
Walgreens found that its omnichannel shoppers spend more than its single-channel shoppers
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey
Online sales
forecast
Product category forecast
Leading retailers
Shoppers & buyers forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Current (not new) online buyers are driving the bulk of ecommerce sales growth
Key Shopper/Buyer Stats
CAGR (2012-2017)
Shoppers 2.7%
Buyers 3.8%
2013
Buyers as a % 82.2%of shoppers
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Smartphones and tablets have become commonplace devices for buying online
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
By all estimates a strong majority of internet users make online purchases
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Online buying is prevalent across all age cohortsBuyers 65+ will grow faster than any other group at a 7.3% CAGR from 2012-2017
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Online spending is well distributed across household income segments
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Impetus for spending more online: Personalization
Survey Findings
41% of online shoppers buy more from retailers who send them personalized emails based on past browsing and buying behavior
39% purchase more on retail sites with product recommendations
Source: The e-tailing group, sponsored by MyBuys, December 2012
Personalization Drives Online Sales at Sears
Shop Your Way membership program, which offers personalized product offers based on customer shopping behavior and other characteristics, strongly contributed to:
25% boost in online sales for Q4 2012
17% increase for all of 2012
Source: Internet Retailer, March 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Impetus for spending more online: Trust and security
Jason GoldbergVP strategyRazorfish
Vineet BuchGroup product managerGoogle
“Free returns engender online trust by reducing the likelihood a consumer will have buyers’ remorse.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
“Every year we see more consumers who were latecomers to online shopping trusting ecommerce.”
Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
What were the highlights of our journey?
Online sales
forecast
Product category forecast
Leading retailers
Shoppers & buyers forecast
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Takeaways
US retail ecommerce sales will increase at a 14% CAGR from 2012 to 2017
Mobile users’ share of US retail ecommerce sales will rise from 15% in 2013 to 25% by 2017
Ecommerce growth comes from current (not new) online buyers, who account for 73% of internet users
Apparel & accessories and CPG are large categories with strong online growth potential
All age groups partake in online buying, but those ages 65+ are the fastest growing cohort
Twitter – #eMwebinar
Trend: Greater Need for Guidance when Shopping Online
This is Where Needle Comes in
Power of a Needler
How Needle Does It
Guided Shopping Online Using Your Best Fans
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Q&A Session
US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth
Sponsored by:
Needle
You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to
view the deck and webinar recording.
Jeffrey Grau
Learn more about mobile marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription
About 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. The following are a few recent ones you may be interested in:
US Retail Ecommerce: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates
Online User Reviews: Building Trust and Boosting Sales
Shopping Cart Abandonment: New Ways of Looking at the Purchase Path
Retail Mobile Commerce Forecast: Shoppers Turn to Smartphones First
Multichannel Customer Service: Best Practices for Building Retail Loyalty
To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products
800-405-0844 or [email protected]