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Emissions and Climate Change
What can Europe do?
Cutting transport CO2 emissions:
Putting effectiveness & value for money centre stage
Stephen Perkins
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Does cost-effectiveness matter?
• 2nd best argument – transport should mitigate more
because limited de-localisation effects
• High cost measures have attracted political support
– Hydrogen
– Biofuels
– Modal shift
– Hybrids
• Despite low effectiveness
• Effective measures weak political support
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-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,0001990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes o
f C
O2
The 400 transport measures adopted
so far should save 700 Mt CO2 in 2010
IEA projection of transport emissions
700 Mt CO2
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,0001990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes o
f C
O2
The 400 transport measures adopted
so far should save 700 Mt CO2 in 2010
IEA projection of transport emissions
700 Mt CO2
ITF Transport Sector Emissions:
Potential Impact of Current Policies
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4
Policy Implications
• More action needed if growth in transport emissions is to be cut.
• How much?
– Power & heat sector will make biggest cuts
– Some relatively low cost measures available in all sectors
– Within transport some expensive measures implemented while cheap measures ignored
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IPCC Sectoral GHG Abatement Potential for the World
(Gt CO2 eq/yr at less than $100/tCO2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
TransportEnergy Supply Buildings Industry WasteForestryAgriculture
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
1.5-2.5 Gt/CO2/yr
Gt C
O2
eq
/yr
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UK Modeled CO2 Emission Reductions by SectorScenario Showing Least Cost Route to 60% Reduction by 2050
Source: Markal-Macro model
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UK Marginal abatement cost curve 2020
Abatement potential 2020 (MtC)
VA RTFO
Dti
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2.1 Mt/yr
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Low rolling resistance tyres (73€)
CNG (268€)Fuel efficient AC (24€-37€)
European Ethanol (65€-451€)Brazilian Ethanol (-28€-34€)
Biodiesel (53€-268€)Eco-driving – existing drivers (-45€)
Vehicle technology to 130g by 2012 (135€)Tyre pressure monitoring (-50€)
Low Viscosity lubricants (113€)Eco driving - new drivers (-69€)
Vans, 45g/km reduction (88€)Eco driving - gear shift indicator (-78€)
1.5 Mt1.8 Mt
2.0 Mt
4.0 Mt
3.1-4 Mt
1 Mt
2.4 Mt
3.7 Mt
2 Mt/yr
6.8 Mt
3.1-4 Mt
3.1-4 Mt2.1 Mt
Annual reduction in 2012 ~ 38 Mt
4.4 Mt5.5Mt
9.6Mt9.1 Mt
3.1-4 Mt
2.7 Mt
5.3Mt
11.7Mt
9.6Mt/yr
21.4 Mt
3.1-4 Mt
3.1-4 Mt
6.4Mt
Annual reduction in 2020 ~ 96 Mt
EU Car & Van GHG Abatement
Costs & Mitigation Potential
Source: TNO, IEEP, LATS
€/t CO2eq
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Possible regulatory standard & energy efficiency ―bins‖ for tyres
P metric STH
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
11,0
12,0
13,0
14,0
15,0
550 600 650 700 750 800 850
Diameter (mm)
R/R
T (
kg
/t)
STH
LET1
LET2
ULET1
ULET2
SULET
REG STH
Data based on rolling resistance measurements of Original Equipment and replacement tires from
Europe, North America and Asia
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-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
Ele
ctric
Wat
er P
ump
Efficie
nt A
lter
nat
ors
Efficie
nt A
ir C
ondi
tion
ers
Hea
t Pum
ps for
A/C
Hea
t Bat
tery
Dual C
oolin
g Circu
its
Idle
Sto
p/Sta
rt (42
V s
ys)
Low
RR T
yres
0W-5
W/20
Oils
Tyr
es In
flation
Monito
r
Shift
Ind L
ight
(m
an tr
ans)
Drive
r Tra
inin
g
Adap
tive
Cru
ise
Con
trol
do
lla
rs p
er
ton
ne
CO
2
US / Cold US / Hot EU / Cold EU / Hot
Low Cost Vehicle Component Improvements
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• Tyres, cruise control, air con effective under all
conditions
– combined these could save up 5-10% of fuel.
• Most technologies are most effective under cold
conditions with dense traffic
– water pump, energy efficient alternator, heat battery
and 5W-20 oil most cost-effective
– combined these could save up to 10% of fuel.
– especially important for Northern climates
• Diesels: lower potential for improvement
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Core Vehicle Technology
Source: King 2007 based on IEA, IEEP, CARB, Ricardo.
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Differentiation of annual circulation tax for private cars in the UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
70 80 90 100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
CO2 g/km
An
nu
al
VE
D R
ate
s (
£)
B101 to 120
D151-165
C121-150
E166-185
FOver 185
AUpto 100
GOver 225
Rates from 2001
Rates from 23-3-2006
Source: DfT,
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Company car tax differentiation in the UK
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
CO2 g/km
% o
f C
ar
pri
ce
ta
xe
d
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005-7
2005-7
2003/4
2004/5
2002/3
2005-7
2003/4
2004/5
2002/3
Source: DfT,
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Impact of UK tax differentiation
160
165
170
175
180
185
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CO
2 (
g/k
m)
company private
Source: DVLC
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High cost GHG mitigation:
Biofuel subsidies
Average performance Euros/tCO2eq USD
US corn-ethanol 390 520
EU sugar-beet ethanol 450—620 610—840
EU rapeseed biodiesel 750—990 1 000—1 340
Sources: Koplow 2007; Kutas et al., 2007.
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Biofuels: EU tax subsidies increasing rapidly(Excise tax exemptions - revenue loss)
Biodiesel
Ethanol
Billion Euro
Sources: Koplow 2007; Kutas 2007; for GSI
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US biofuel tax subsidies to grow and grow
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Billi
on
s o
f U
.S. D
oll
ars
(n
om
inal)
Farm payments Ethanol tax credit Biodiesel tax credit
$4Bn $16Bn
GSI 2007
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Biofuels GHG emissions balance
• Wide range of uncertainty in the estimation of
life-cycle GHG emission balances;
• Farming practice can shift the balance from
positive to negative;
• Oxidation of soil carbon and emissions of N2O
from fertiliser application are big sources of GHG
emissions.
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Designing support for biofuels
• Volumetric targets inappropriate– Likely to favour worst performing, lowest cost production
• Transport fuel carbon content targets better
• Certification for biofuels production– Should improve outcomes even if it is difficult
– Not suited to indirect effects – forest destruction
– Requires extensive stakeholder consultation
– Crude system better than no certification
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… designing support cont.
• UK, NL, Germany, Switzerland, California, EU developing certification to regulate market
• Range and poor performance of today’s biofuels partly result of absence of regulation or incentives linking support to CO2 balance
• Fuel carbon taxes, including for biofuels, would be more cost-effective than subsidies or targets
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Biomass better for heat and power£ / tonne CO2 abated
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Industrial / commercial
boilers
CHP Co-firing in coal power
plant
Biodiesel Wheat Ethanol
Source: Dti
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Paris 21 March 2006 23
Policy package
• Integrated packages of measures needed
– Vehicles, fuels, demand mgmt, modal shift
• But vehicle efficiency measures deliver most
• Off-cycle components and eco-driving are most
cost-effective
– Large, immediate savings – should be core measures
– Switch attention to efficiency, away from fuels & modal
shift co-benefits approach (currently 1/3 of all national
policies reported)
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24
Priorities
• Differentiate vehicle taxes by CO2
– More countries
• In EU, no need to wait for Directive
– stronger incentives
• Linear incentives to avoid fragmenting car market
• New low cost efficiency measures
– Off-test vehicle component standards / incentives
• tyres, lights, air conditioners, lubricants.
– On-road efficiency
• driving style training / instruments
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References:
• www.cemt.org.– Environment pages
– Research Centre pages
• www.internationaltransportforum.org.