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KEYNOTE: Changes in Weather Conditions and Predicting Weather Conditions in the FutureKeliolosuhteiden muuttuminen ja niiden ennustaminen tulevaisuudessa
Meteorologist Kerttu Kotakorpi
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Changing road conditions and predicting them in
the future
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Climate changes –globe is warming
• Year 2017 was globally one degreewarmer than the pre-industrial era
• Year 2017 was the second warmest in history – warmest without el Niño
Picture: Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, UK
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Climate changes –globe is warming
• In Finland the climate is already 2,3 degreeswarmer!
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Weather in Finland after 100 years
• Temperature in Finland will rise more and fasterthan the global average
• Climate changes more in the winter than summer
• Temperatures rise
• Precipitation grows
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Seasons change• Dry periods shortens in winter and spring
• Downpours strengthens in spring and autumn
• Mean temperatures rise by 3 to 5 degrees by the end of the century
Seasons changing in Pikku-Huopalahti, Helsinki
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Climate is warming– winter weather is changing
• Temperatures rise• Less freezing temperatures• Less frost in the ground• More temperatures close to zero
• More precipitation • More snow in the northern parts of Finland • More rain• More slippery conditions• More darkness
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Winter temperatures rise
• Warming is fastest in the north
• By the end of the century climate in the centralFinland is similar to Poland or Hungary today
• In the south freezing temperatures get moreunusual
New Year2011 in Helsinki
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Winter temperatures rise
By the end of the century the winter temperatures can rise by 6 to 8 degrees in Finland
Similar temperatures now in November
+8 °C
+7 °C
+6 °C
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Very cold temperatures go down in history
• Less cold winter days
• Less very cold freezing temperatures
• At first there will be more temperatures close to zero in the wholecountry, later only in the nortern and eastern parts of the country
• Because of the shorter winters and warming, temperatures will be lessoften close to zero at the end of the century
Hrrr….
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Precipitation increases
• Precipitation increases and downpours getstronger
• Change is relatively bigger in the winter than in the summer and stronger in the north than in the south
• In the winter the heaviest rain intensifiesrelatively most
• Because of the rising temperatures, bigger partof the precipitation is rain
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Precipitation increase in winter
Precipitationincreases by 40 % by the end of the century!
Amount is the same as in England today!
+40 %
+30 %
+20 %
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Freezing rain
• Freezing rains disturbing traffic will decrease by couple of days duringnext decades
• In the northern parts of Finland freezing rains can get a little morefrequent as temperatures are more often close to zero
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ONLY LAPLAND WILL HAVE SNOW COVER AT THE END OF THE CENTURY
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Shorter period of snow
• In the southern and western parts of Finland the snowydays will decrease by 50 %
• In the north snowy days willdegrease by 20-30 %
• Blizzards increase – stillthere can be mass of snowat once
• The need for snow plow willnot change a lot
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Winter road conditions change
• Mild and rainy winters will increase the erosion of roads
• Need for removing ice and spreading salt on the roads willdecrease in the south
• Winter road maintenance will concentrate in the north
• Need for preventing slipperiness will grow in the north
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NEED FOR SPREADING SALT AND SAND ON THE ROADSCAN EVEN INCREASE
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CYCLINGPERIOD
LENGTHENS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME
RAINYNESS AND WINDINESSINCREASES
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Weather predictions become more precise
• Computation capacity of the weather prediction models will grow in the future
• Weather prediction models become more exact
• It will be possible to plan even more detailed operations for roads