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ENSO and Tropical-Subtropcial
Teleconnections to EBUS
René Garreaud1 and Art Miller2
1Universidad de Chile 2Scripps Institution of Oceanography
ICTP-CLIVAR Summer School on EBUS
July 19, 2019
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Desde cuando conocemos El Niño?
Gentileza de Ken Takahashi, IGP
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Cálido y lluvioso
Cálido
Lluvioso
Verano
Invierno
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Weather and Climate
Affecting the EBUS (CCS)• Weather: Short time scale (days): Affects things
directly - storms, rain, winds, heat waves, extreme events, balmy days
Winter storms Summer stratocumulus
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Weather and Climate
Affecting the EBUS (CCS)• Climate: Long time scale (averages over months,
seasons, years, trends) accumulation of weather events that we assume to be meaningful
Aleutian Low: Winter North Pacific High: Summer
Stratocumulus Deck
(Marine Layer)
Storm Track
Variations
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A
Continente MarítimoPosa cálida
Baja presiónTermoclina profundaConvección Profunda
Anticiclónsubtropical
Cinturón delos Oestes
Condición media: Asimetría zonal y acoplamiento OA
Colores indican TSMFlechas delgadas viento en superficie
Pacifico OrientalLengua fríaAltas presionesTermoclina someraSubsidencia
© RGS @ DGF-UCh + CR2
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ENSO variability around the averages:
What controls the oceanic response? Focus on Winter: Strong Forcing => Strong response
Large-scale climate pattern variations organize
the oceanic physical processes that affect ocean biology
-Defining an ENSO Index and relating to biological variables
is frequently done, but…
-Physical processes in the ocean can vary in space and
can therefore affect the biology in different ways
-Understanding these processes is therefore critical to
unraveling mechanisms of biological variations
-Plus, lagged effects of ENSO forcing in the ocean
may have additional predictable components
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Tropical Pacific Climatology
32˚F 68˚F 86˚FCourtesy: Dillon Amaya
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WEP EEP
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Tropical Pacific Climatology
32˚F 68˚F 86˚FCourtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Westerly wind bursts
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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WEP EEP
Sea surface height
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Variabilidad interanual en el Pacifico tropicalEN, LN (aT>0.5°C por 3 meses) : 1-2 años de duración, cada 3-7 años
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Walker Circulation
Normal
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Walker Circulation
El Niño
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Introducción a la Meteorología – ENOS
UCH/FCFM/DGF – R. Garreaud
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Estan la OS y EN asociados? SI.....
El Niño (TSM sobre el promedio) Anticiclón del Pacifico relativamente bajo
La Niña (TSM bajo el promedio) Anticiclón del Pacifico relativamente alto
Introducción a la Meteorología – ENOS
UCH/FCFM/DGF – R. Garreaud
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ENSO Indices
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Bjerknes Feedback
Westerly wind burst
(weakened trades)
Flatten thermocline,
warm SSTAs
Shifted
Walker Circulation
Courtesy: Dillon Amaya
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Mantención de El Niño: Mecanismo de Bjerknes(También refleja acoplamiento O-A: SST, SLP, Viento)
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Iniciación de ENSO
• “Westerly wind bursts” asociados a MJO o Monzón del Asia
• Termoclina profunda en la región ecuatorial parece condición necesaria pero no
suficiente
1996-1998
Evolution
SST, Wind, OLR
150E – 90W
Along Equator
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Mecanismos de transición de fase:
1. Teoría del oscilador retardado (Delayed Oscillator: Schopf and
Suarez 1988; Battisti and Hirtz, 1989): La memoria del océano es
provista por la profundidad de la termoclina mediante la propagación
y reflexión de ondas oceánicas. En este caso, el periodo de ENSO
es determinado por la velocidad de fase de las ondas en juego.
2. Teoría del oscilador recargado (Wyrtki 1975; Jin 1997): La memoria
del océano es provista por la profundidad promedio de la termoclina
la cual esta permanentemente fuera de equilibrio con el esfuerzo del
viento en la franja ecuatorial.
3. Otras teorías (oscilador advectivo-reflectivo, oscilador unificado).
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Mecanismo de Bjerknes explica mantención de EN(LN)…pero cual es el gatillo?
WWB: Westerly wind burst1996-1998
Evolution
Wind, 20C-depth, SST
40E – 90W
2N-2S ave
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Mecanismo de Bjerknes explica mantención de EN(LN)…pero cual es el gatillo?
WWB: Westerly wind burst
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Cold
Warm20°S
20°N
Westerly Wind Burst
Downwelling
Trades (E)
Cold anomaly
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V’ > 0
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Horel and Wallace, 1981
Classic Atmospheric Teleconnections from El Nino…
Hadley Cell contraction induced by tropical convection changes
Hot Box for
forcing PNA pattern
Karoly 1989
Hot Box for
forcing PSA pattern
DJF
Boreal winter Austral winter
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Stronger upper-Level ST Jet
Climo. Storm Track
EN years Storm Track
H
Blocking High
WeakenedST High
H
Drier/WarmerDJF
Wetter-OND
Wetter-JJA
Drier-DJF
Colder
Wetter-JFMA
Warmer - DJF
Principales impactos climáticos durante años El Niño
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Principales impactos climáticos durante años El NiñoCorrelación de Nino3.4 con precipitación y temperatura
Seco
LLuvioso
Cálido
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Alexander et al., 2002
Seasonal Dependence of SLP and SST Teleconnections
(composite EN-LN, but actually non-linear)
Winter Summer
FallSpring
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Local Oceanic Response to the Atmospheric Anomalies:
Dynamics and Thermodynamics
of Upper Ocean Variability
Dynamics of Currents: (Adiabatic Forcing)
Wind Stress (Ekman transport: Coastal upwelling)
Wind Stress Curl (Ekman pumping: Open-Ocean upwelling)
Thermodynamics of Ocean Temperature: (Diabatic Forcing)
Surface Heat Flux (Latent, Sensible, solar, radiative)
Advection (due to currents: Ekman, pressure-gradient, upwelled)
Vertical turbulent mixing
When the winds change, all these effects act together,
but in different relative strength in different places….
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ENSO variability around the Averages:
What controls the oceanic response? Focus on Winter: Strong Forcing => Strong response
Focus on Interannual to Interdecadal time scales
Aleutian Low anomalies force
surface heat fluxes,
Ekman current advection,
and turbulent mixing
(diabatic effects) to drive
East-West pattern of SST
Miller et al. (2004)
Nino
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ENSO variability around the Averages:
What controls the oceanic response? Focus on Winter: Strong Forcing => Strong response
Focus on Interannual to Interdecadal time scales
Aleutian Low anomalies force
surface heat fluxes,
Ekman current advection,
and turbulent mixing
(diabatic effects) to drive
East-West pattern of SST
Additionally, Aleutian Low
wind stress curl anomalies force
(adiabatically) thermocline
anoms (Ekman pumping)
that change the circulation of
the CCS and sea levelMiller et al. (2004)
Nino
Nino
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Oceanic ENSO TeleconnectionsCoastally trapped Kelvin-like waves have potential
to travel from Equator to the California Coast
to alter the thermocline depth and currents
- Difficult to traverse Gulf of California
- Deformation radius ~25km
- More transient
- Radiation into Rossby waves loses energy
Atmospheric Teleconnections
- More persistent
- Drive thermocline anomalies of same sign
- Broader scale ~1000km
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Courtesy: Boris DeWitt
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Courtesy: Boris DeWitt
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Ecosystem Response
• Bottom-up versus Top-Down (or “Side-In”)
- Productivity versus Habitat Suitability
(spawning especially) and Physiology
- Hostile environmental changes –
acidification, hypoxia, etc.
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Model simulation of Ecological Response to ENSO
3-month lagged correlation NINO-3.4 with Model
(Nathali Cordero-Quiros et al., 2019)
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Courtesy: Boris DeWitt
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Thanks!
ICTP-CLIVAR Summer School on EBUS
July 19, 2019
René Garreaud and Art Miller
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Three surprisingly Niños
René D. Garreaud1,2
1. Centro del Clima y la Resiliencia, CR22. Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile
DJF 2015 DJF 2016 DJF 2017
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Niño3.4
Niño1+2
Time (mark indicates January)
Failed
Godzilla
Coastal
6-month lead prediction range
What happened in the last decade?
Tres niños sorprendentesEN
SO In
dex
(°C
)
3.41+2
El Niño
La Niña
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Mecanismo de Bjerknes explica mantención de EN(LN)…pero cual es el gatillo?
WWB: Westerly wind burst
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S. Hu and A. Fedorov; PNAS 2016
WWB: Westerly wind burst
2014
Que pasó el 2014?
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WWB
2014
EWB: Easterly wind burst
S. Hu and A. Fedorov; PNAS 2016
Que pasó el 2014?
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Our findings suggest that EWBs, when occurring during the development phase of El Niño, represent another important factor limiting this predictability. A more comprehensive investigation of EWBs will be needed to address all relevant questions, including for example, what causes EWBs during El Niño development…
…the occurrence of the June of 2014 EWB, the strongest during satellite observations, coincided with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with persistently stronger easterly Trade winds….
Buuu….El Niño 2014 “falló” pero sembró una buena semilla….
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Karumuri Ashok & Toshio Yamagata
Nature 461, 481-484(24 September 2009)
Alisios más intensos / Mayor InsolaciónMayor surgencia en Pac. OrientalMayor hundimiento en Pac. Occidental
Energía ingresa al océanoCorrientes distribuyen el calor lateramente
Alisios más débilesMenor surgencia en Pac. OrientalAumento de evaporación (LE)
Energía sale del océanoAtmosfera distribuye la energía globalmente
Fases ENSO como un sistema de carga/descarga de Energía
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SST (Niño3.4)
Heat Content
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EWBWWB
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Finalmente la energía se descargó
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Y bueno, después del calentamiento…(EN2016)
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Perspectivas para el verano 2017….
Frío, frío
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Perspectivas para el verano 2017….
Frío, frío
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Y de pronto… El Niño costero 2017
Niño3.4
Niño1+2
Time (mark indicates January)
6-month lead prediction range
ENSO
Ind
ex (°C
)
3.41+2
El Niño
La Niña
Coastal
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Southern Oscillation Index
Niño 3.4 (°C)
Niñ
o 1
+2 (°C
)
JFM Mean ENSO Indices1870-2017
1925
Diversidad de eventos El Niño/La Niña….
1998
2016
1983
1878
2017
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Gentileza Ken Takahashi, IGP
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LE = f(u,Ta,SST)RS
Viento costero y SST…el huevo y la gallina?
Garreaud 2018b
SST Viento costero ???
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Garreaud 2018b
Calentamiento costero y precipitación
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NW Peru storms, 03 March 2017 GPM radar 17 dBZ isosurfaceSource: Harold Pierce, NASA GSFC
Calentamiento costero y precipitación>200 fallecidos, 3.1 Bill US$
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(a) 200 hPa height and OLR anomalies (15-30 January 2017)
(b) Rainfall deciles January 2017
El ardiente verano 2017
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(b) Zonal wind anomaly, 15-31 Jan 2017, 280°E
Hei
ght
[m A
SL]
Latitude
El ardiente verano 2017