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Equipment Technology For
Global Production and Test
Adam Wray - EVP, Xyratex
March 2005
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IntroductionIntroduction
4th wave of the drive industry is upon usUnprecedented volume growthIncreasing variety of application segments to addressHigh levels of uncertainty in volumes, consumer market requirements, interfaces.
How do we manage this level of variety and complexity in a cost effective, responsive process?
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New Industry ChallengesNew Industry Challenges
More and More Variants: Size: 3.5”,2.5”,1.8”,1.0”,0.85”Spin speed: 20K,15K,10K,7.2K,5.4K, 4.2K, 3.6K…Interface Type : FC, SCSI, SAS, SATA, PATA,CF,CE-ATA, EmbeddedMechanical Packaging:
Connector type,Connector positioning Commonality,Reference surface placement and commonality.
TemperatureMobile devices go in to increasingly variable temperature environments
• Cars, Phones, MP3 players,
Volume / ScalingAbility to scale production capability quickly and reliably is key.
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-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ions
Years
Unit
Ship
men
ts
CQ4 '04 Forecast Delta2004 Annual Forecast
Delta between original April 2004 forecast and February revised 2005 forecast
Original April 2004 forecast - 2006/2007
update due from TrendFocus in March
Delta between original April 2004 forecast and 2004 actuals
Global HDD Total Unit Shipments (1999-2007)Global HDD Total Unit Shipments (1999-2007)
Source: TrendFocus April 2004, February 2005
5
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ions
Year
Uni
t Shi
pmen
ts
ActualsAnnual 04CQ4 '04
SFF HDD Forecast Comparison (1999-2007)SFF HDD Forecast Comparison (1999-2007)
Source: TrendFocus April 2004, February 2005
ActualShipments
Revised Forecast
(Feb 2005)
OriginalForecast
(April 2004)
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-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ions
Year
Uni
t Shi
pmen
ts
ActualsAnnual 04CQ4 '04
SFF HDD Forecast Comparison (1999-2007)SFF HDD Forecast Comparison (1999-2007)
Source: TrendFocus April 2004, February 2005
Uncertainty reduces
Flexible systems deployment
Optimised system deployment
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Flexible Automated Test Systems
3.5” Tray - 1 Drive
2.5” Tray - 1 Drive
1.8” Tray - 1 Drive
1.0” Tray - 4 Drive
2.5” Tray - 1 Drive
1.8” Tray - 1 Drive
1.0” Tray - 2 Drive
X-Calibre 3.5” base system
Magnum 2.5” base system
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1.0” inch drives and below1.0” inch drives and below
High Volume Growth predicted / potential in this area• BUT High ranges in forecast demand
THE battle ground with Flash
Very … Very cost competitive
A prime segment where areal density will be a key differentiator
A very demanding environment for a disk drive• Temperature, Vibration/shock, user patterns
Reliability and Quality will be a key differentiator in large OEM accounts
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Implications in Disk Drive Test ProcessesImplications in Disk Drive Test Processes
Common Myth“ because 1.0” drives are small in size, and need to be cheap we can make a very space efficient cheap test process”
Key challenges to resolve to this:1.0” form factor appears to have the highest number of variants in both interface and connector types of all form factors.1.0” drives actually have a much higher heat generation density and lower ability to dissipate heat than larger form factors.Lower temperature testing requirements for extended reliability requirements.At high areal densities self servo, servo fill and post servowriting Track optimisation processes are highly sensitive to vibration requiring careful mechanical design in each test slotTest times are significant and growing due to lower spin speeds, servo optimisation requirements of the form factor and areal density / capacity per unit being a key differentiator.
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Thermal and vibration modelling Thermal and vibration modelling
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LOW TEMPERATURE
Shock and Vibration Testing?
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What Can The Industry Do?What Can The Industry Do?
Develop common standards across the industry to enable effectiveequipment design:
• Including• Base casting features
AlignmentAutomation and handlingHeat dissipation features
• Interface standards• Connection system standards
Common and accurate positioning of connectorsCommon automation enabling features on any flex / Ziff designs
Determine base pre-competitive Equipment building blocks rather than re-invent the wheel.
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ConclusionConclusion
High growth CE markets place new demands and challenges on the disk drive industry
Success depends on new approaches for critical business areas including Product Design and Product Manufacturing
Flexible systems deployment reduces risk in forecast uncertainty
Work Together on optimum process and product designs for the future.
Getting strategic about manufacturing is now an essential requirement (it’s not just about capacity!)
A cost-effective, scaleable and flexible advanced manufacturing capability is key to success