ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
ESPA Deltas: ASSESSING HEALTH, LIVELIHOODS,
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN POPULOUS DELTAS
Presented by Prof. Robert J. Nicholls
University of Southampton www.espadelta.net
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Plan
• Introduction • Consortium • Project Details • Concluding Remarks
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Threatened Deltas
Population potentially displaced by current sea level trends to 2050
Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)
Extreme = >1 million; High = 1 million to 50,000; Medium = 50,000 to 5,000 people
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Main Study Site
China
India
Nepal Bhutan
India Burma
Pakistan
Kathmandu
Dhaka
New Delhi Thimphu
R. Ganges
R. Brahmaputra
R. Meghna
Bangladesh
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Bangladesh Case Study Area
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
ESPA Delta: Project Aims
In Coastal Bangladesh • To engage relevant stakeholders throughout the project via participatory
methods. • To understand the present relationship between ecosystem services and
human well-being and health. • To predict how these ecosystem services might evolve over the coming years
and decades (up to 50 years) . • To analyse how policy can influence these outcomes and promote ecosystem
services and human well-being and health. • To select robust policies that are effective across the range of uncertainty.
More Broadly • To test the transferability of these methods to other populated deltas.
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
ESPA Delta: Example Questions
• Who are the poor? • What are the Ecosystem Services? • How and why are these Ecosystem Services changing? • What is the role of biophysical change and Ecosystem Services? • What implications do the changes have for the poor? • How can policy promote ecosystem services and poverty
alleviation?
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
• Interdisciplinary: Socio-Economic, Biophysical, Legal Context • Multi-scale: Nested study domains – Global – Ganges-
Brahmaputra basin, Bay of Bengal, National, Study Area, Sub-divisions of study area, Trans-boundary issues
• Integrative: Linking model domains, integrated modelling to address policy questions, scenario development, policy testing and sensitivity analysis (with new model development, where necessary)
• Transferable: Tested conceptually in two other (Indian) sites
Methodological Principles – Transition into practice
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Key Ecosystem Services
Source: BRAC (2007)
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Example Delta Ecosystem Activities
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
THE CONSORTIUM UK Partners
• University of Southampton PI Robert Nicholls • University of Oxford (Scenario Development) • Exeter University (Ecosystem Services and Poverty) • Dundee University (Legal context) • Hadley Centre MET office (Climate Change Modelling) • Plymouth Marine Laboratories (Fisheries Modelling) • National Oceanography Centre Liverpool (Marine Modelling)
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
THE CONSORTIUM Indian Partners
• IIT Roorkee – Lead Nayan Sharma PI (Hydrological Modelling) • Cotton College, Guwahati (Social Economic context) • Aaranyak (Social Economic context) • Jadavpur University (Mangrove/Ecological Modelling)
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
THE CONSORTIUM Bangladeshi Partners
• Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) – Prof Rahman Lead PI
• Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS): (Policy) • Institute of Livelihood Studies (ILS): (Livelihood) • Ashroy Foundation: (Social Survey) • Institute of International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research,
Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) : (Health) • Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS):
(GIS, Database) • Bangladesh Agricultural University (Fisheries, Agriculture) • Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI): Agriculture) • Technological Assistance for Rural Advancement (TARA): Fisheries/ecology • Mohammad Shahad Mahabub Chowdhury (IUCN): ecology • Kazi Matin U Ahmed (Dhaka University): Ground Water
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Project Structure
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Work Package 1 - Governance
Quality of the legal, institutional and policy context: – Management of Ecosystem Services (e.g. freshwater,
forestry, pollution control, fisheries, protected areas); – Extent to which people can escape from poverty (e.g.
property rights, control of monopolies, disaster management, availability of information, access to justice);
– Mediation processes between them (as elucidated in WP2)
Engagement with relevant stakeholders - key for: – understanding reality of governance context; – future policy drivers; – scenario development; and – research relevance
Critical Stakeholder Interventions
Nicholls Consortia Presentation ESPA Consortia Workshop 19-20 Sept 2012
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Three Key Stakeholder interventions
Initial Policy Questions (WP2)
• Salinity impacts on rice
• Development of agro-business
• Coastal defence options
• Impacts of upstream interventions
Development of Scenarios (WP4)
• Economic trends/GDP
• Commodity pricing
• Socio-economics • Governance • Trans boundary
issues
Intervention testing (WP6)
• Running policy interventions on the model
• Conducting policy sensitivity analysis
• Handling Uncertainty
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Scenario Building (WP4)
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Work Package 2 – Model Conceptualisation Hypotheses
• Investigating four mechanisms known to mediate between wellbeing and the environment: – Seasonality – Mobility – Property rights – Moral economy
• Each of these mechanisms has positive or negative
impacts on the ability of ecosystem services to alleviate poverty depending on characteristics of the: – Socio-ecological system – Ecosystem service – Social status
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Work Package 2 Applied to 10 socio-ecological systems
1. Mangrove-dominated (Sundarban Impact Zone) 2. Wetland ecosystem services and associated livelihoods 3. Agriculturally dominated incomes (within and outside of
polders) 4. Livestock-related livelihoods on newly-accreted charlands 5. Inland capture fisheries 6. Inland culture fisheries 7. Aquaculture systems (shrimp, prawn and crab collection
and fattening) 8. Offshore capture fisheries 9. Peri-urban areas 10. Urban areas
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Work Package 3 – Socio-Economic Analysis and Model Aim: To quantify the relationship between poverty and ecosystem services building on WP2. • Analysing census data over time to create
poverty maps. • Examining fertility rates by urban/rural and
province for projections • Reviewing best software for projections • Preparing demographic projections • Planning surveys with WP2
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Bangladesh Case Study Area
(about 250 Unions and data for three
census periods)
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
WP5 Integrated Biophysical Model (incomplete – missing Mangrove model)
GCMs/ RCMs
Catchment Models GWAVA / INCA (Oxford) Groundwater (BUET Morphodynamics (Soton)
Delta Model FVCOM
Crop Models CROPWAT, AquaCrop, MAXENT
Coastal Fisheries Model Size-based models
Bay Bengal Model GCOMS
Met Office Hadley Centre
Oxford Buet Soton IITR
BUET NOC PML
Soton BARI BAU
PML
PML TARA BAU IUCN
Temperature, rainfall
Sea level, storms
Water, sediment
Freshwater, sediment, nutrients
Primary productivity
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Work Package 4 – Integration and Scenarios
Aim • Develop scenarios to analyse future outcomes • Develop an integrated modelling framework of socio-
ecological systems Tasks • Establish baseline status from observations • Develop exogenous and endogenous scenarios • Develop integrated model framework of socio-
ecological systems building on WP3/WP5 • Apply framework in Vensim Outcomes • Assessment of scenario development tools • South-Asian ecosystem services scenarios
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Land erosion
Fish capture
No of Tourists
Biomass of Fish stock Biomass
Production rate
X Mortality
rate
X
+ +
Magnitude/frequency of cyclones
+
Sea Level Rise
+
+ +
Employment opportunities
Market price of fish
Market price of tourist attractions
Nutrients
Primary production +
+
+ +
+ +
Hazardous Substances
+
Nutrition + Population
number +
+
Social model
Mangrove model
ES flows – Coastal fishery
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Inland only
Coastal waters
How to consider the ES flows spatially?
Mangrove forest
Inland +
Mangrove
Inland +
Coastal
Inland +
Mangrove +
Coastal
~250 unions
river
forest
agricul- tural field
settle- ment
shrimp farming
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Database for ESPA Deltas Project • Organised by CEGIS, Bangladesh • About 400 existing data layers available • Augmented with Project data and results
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Short-term Scientific Outputs
Fast Track papers (within first 12 months) • “An assessment of the key policy issues concerning
ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in coastal Bangladesh” (WP1)
• “A review of the state of coastal Bangladesh with a focus
on ecosystem services and poverty alleviation” (WP2) • “A review of the trends in ecosystem services in coastal
Bangladesh: A preliminary assessment” (WP5)
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
Short-term Scientific Outputs
Conference Papers ICWFM 2013 (4th) to be held in Bangladesh: March 2013
• Loss of Ecosystem Services in Shrimp Aquaculture area and its impact on livelihood of Poor People (WP2) • Assessment of Coastal Ecosystem component in Changed hydrological
condition (WP5) • Application of remote sensing and GIS in measuring water quality of the major
water bodies in the Ganges delta (WP5) • Changes in the Biomass Content in Sundarban Area: A Remote Sensing
Approach (WP5) • Spatial and Temporal Trend of tidal range and salinity in the Bengal Delta (WP5) • Application of FVCOM in Simulating the Ecosystem Parameters in the Coastal
region of the Bay of Bengal : Developing a Model of the Region
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The ESPA Delta project is making significant progress across a broad range of academic areas including: • Analysis of governance • Participatory methods • Ecosystem services and human well-being in deltas • Integrated assessment methods
All this work is focussed on understanding the relationship between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in deltas and the potential role of policy in shaping outcomes Early outputs will be available in Spring 2013 Thanks to all the Consortium members.
ESPA Deltas ESPA Science Workshop 19-20 Nov 2012
ESPA Deltas: ASSESSING HEALTH, LIVELIHOODS,
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN POPULOUS DELTAS
Presented by Prof. Robert J. Nicholls
University of Southampton www.espadelta.net