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Central Coast Regional Economy Report
Presentation
Jim King
JK, Inc.
Central Coast Regional Economy Report
Context for Regional Economic Growth Comparison of Regional Economic Growth Major Industry Sectors in the Central Coast
Region Industries in the Central Coast Economic
Base
Context for Regional Economic Growth
Job Gains 20 Months After Recession Ends
16.9%
6.3%
6.1%
0.3%
12.4%
4.4%
5.3%
4.6%
8.0%
-1.1%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
1945-1947
1949-1951
1954-1956
1958-1959
1961-1962
1970-1972
1975-1976
1982-1984
1991-1992
2001-2003
(Percent Change in Non-Farm Jobs)
State and National Economy Move Together
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
(Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
)
United States California
Job Losses Concentrated in Manufacturing
-276
-2675
-300
-2512-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
California United States
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s;
Ja
n 0
1-A
ug
03
)
Nonfarm Manufacturing
Comparison of CA and US Job Losses
-1.9% -2.0%
-0.2%
-1.2%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Since Jan 01 2000-2003
(Per
cen
t C
han
ge)
California United States
Loss of Manufacturing Jobs
-15.6% -15.6%-16.0% -14.7% -14.9%-14.6%-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Since Jan 01 Aug 00-Aug 03
(Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
)
California United States Texas
Productivity Growth Rate
2.2%
3.1%
2.0%
6.8%
2.7%
5.3%
2.5%2.6%2.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-1
2003-2
(Pe
rce
nt)
Comparison of RegionalEconomic Growth
Growth in Total Jobs 2000-2003
0.7%
3.2%
4.8%
-0.2%
-1.2%-6.4%
4.4%
9.2%
4.8%
1.9%
1.5%
-8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0%
Sierra
Valley
N. Sacramento
Sacramento
Border
N. California
Coast
SoCal
California
U.S.
Bay Area
(Percent Change)
Growth in Total Jobs Jan 01-Aug 03
0.8%1.0%
3.9%
4.9%
3.4%
-9.0%-2.0%-1.9%
4.5%
2.4%
-1.6%
-12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0%
Sierra
Valley
N. Sacramento
N. California
Sacramento
Border
Coast
SoCal
California
U.S.
Bay Area
(Percent Change)
Growth in Total Jobs 1990-2003
15.2%
31.6%
14.6%
11.2%8.2%
28.7%25.2%
25.0%24.9%
20.5%16.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Sacramento
Sierra
Border
N. Sacramento
Valley
CoastU.S.
N. California
California
Bay Area
SoCal
(Percent Change)
Growth in Total Jobs 2000-2003
0.7%
3.2%
4.8%
-0.2%
-1.2%-6.4%
4.4%
9.2%
4.8%
1.9%
1.5%
-8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0%
Sierra
Valley
N. Sacramento
Sacramento
Border
N. California
Coast
SoCal
California
U.S.
Bay Area
(Percent Change)
Growth in Total Jobs
0.0% 1.5%
18.7%20.5%
14.7%
-0.2%
17.4%
-2.1%
4.2%
16.4%
-1.2%
13.1%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990-1994 1994-2000 2000-2003 1990-2003
(Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
)
Central Coast California U.S.
Per Capita Income in 2001
$21,317
$22,982$23,188
$23,785
$30,135
$30,269
$30,413
$30,467
$32,563
$32,950
$45,555
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
Valley
No. Sac. Valley
No. California
Central Sierra
Sacramento
SoCal
U.S.
Central Coast
California
Border
Bay Area
Per Capita Income 1990-2001
30.2%
34.6%
37.6%
39.5%
42.8%44.2%
46.0%48.2%
48.8%55.4%56.9%
72.9%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%
Valley
Cal CPI
SoCal
Central Sierra
Sac. Valley
No. California
Central Coast
California
Sacramento
U.S.
Border
Bay Area
(Percent Change)
Change in Unemployment Rate 2000-2003
4.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Bay Area
U.S.
California
Sacramento
SoCal
No. Sac. Valley
Valley
Border
No. California
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Unemployment Rate in 2003
13.3%
8.8%
8.3%
6.8%
6.7%
6.7%
6.7%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
4.9%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Valley
No. Sac. Valley
No. California
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
California
Sacramento
U.S.
SoCal
Border
Average Wage in 2002
$31,881
$31,891
$32,018
$32,552
$34,631
$42,002
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
California
Central Coast
Central Sierra
San Joaquin Valley
Northern Sacramento Valley
Northern California
Annual Average Wage Growth 1997-2001
6.1%
5.1%
4.8%
4.6%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.9%
7.4%
5.3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Bay Area
San Diego
California
Sacramento
Central Coast
San Joaquin Valley
Northern Sac Valley
Los Angeles
Central Sierra
Northern
(Percent)
Major Industry Sectors in the Central Coast Region
Leading Major Industry Sectors
15.5
19.1
93.1
57.4
52.6
49.3
36.8
31.2
22.6
19.5
0 30 60 90 120
All Government
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Health Care & Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Construction
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Other Svcs (Except Public Admin.)
(Thousands of Jobs in 2002)
Other Major Industry Sectors
1.2
5.1
12.4
7.7
6.66.1
12.8
2.9
7.0
8.2
0 3 6 9 12 15
Wholesale Trade
Finance & Insurance
Information
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Transportation & Warehousing
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
Educational Svcs.
Utilities
Mining
(Thousands of Jobs in 2002)
Above-Average Share in CC
11.3%
0.6%
12.3%
19.9%
10.6%
2.6%
16.5%
7.8%
10.7%
0.4%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ag., Forestry,Fishing &Hunting
All Government
Accommodation& Food Svcs.
Retail Trade
Utilities
(Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal
Jo
bs
in
20
02
)
CC California
Below-Average Share in CC
6.7%
4.2%
2.7%1.8%
4.1%
6.1%
4.4%3.4%
11.0%
6.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Information WholesaleTrade
Professional &Technical
Svcs.
Administrative& Waste Svcs.
Manufacturing
(Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal
Jo
bs
in
20
02
)
CC California
Job Growth in Leading Major Industries 1990-2002
-5.1
17.1
12.2
11.5
9.1
8.2
6.0
4.3
2.4
2.1
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
All Government
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Retail Trade
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
Other Svcs.
Manufacturing
(Thousands)
Job Growth in Leading Major Industries 2000-2002
0.6
0.9
0.3
-3.2
-0.5
1.1
1.8
3.4
4.5
12.3
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
All Government
Health Care & Social Assistance
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Other Svcs (Except Public Admin.)
Construction
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Manufacturing
(Thousands)
Industries in the Central CoastEconomic Base
Central Coast Economic Base
6.1
12.8
19.1
19.5
52.6
57.4
49.3
93.1
22.6
36.8
0 30 60 90 120
All Government
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Health Care & Social Assistance
Construction
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
(Thousands of Jobs in 2002)
Change in CC Economic Base 1990-2002
2.4
11.5
9.1
4.7
4.3
8.2
4.76.0
12.217.1
0 5 10 15 20
All Government
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Retail Trade
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
Construction
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
(Thousands of Jobs)
Change in CC Economic Base 1990-1994
6.9
-0.6
-0.7
-1.3
-1.0
-5.2
0.7
3.7
1.3
2.9
-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
All Government
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Retail Trade
Construction
(Thousands of Jobs)
Change in CC Economic Base 1994-2000
13.3
6.3
2.3
2.9
3.5
7.5
8.9
8.9
5.9
5.2
0 4 8 12 16
All Government
Construction
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Health Care & Social Assistance
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
(Thousands of Jobs)
Change in CC Economic Base 2000-2002
0.3
0.1
-1.1
-1.2
0.9
0.6
-0.5
3.4
1.8
4.5
-3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0
All Government
Health Care & Social Assistance
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Construction
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
(Thousands of Jobs)
Central Coast Economic Base
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f C
C J
ob
s)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f S
tate
Jo
bs
)
Econ Base Jobs in CC CC Econ Base Jobs in State
CC Share of California, 2002
2.0%
3.8%
4.3%
2.9%
3.1%
3.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.9%
15.2%
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
All Government
Retail Trade
Total Jobs
Health Care & Social Assistance
Construction
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Wholesale Trade
Change in CC LQ as Compared to California
1990-2002
-0.04
-0.05
0.75
-0.09
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.47
0.03
0.04
-0.4 0 0.4 0.8
Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
Retail Trade
Health Care & Social Assistance
Construction
Wholesale Trade
All Government
Professional & Technical Svcs.
Administrative & Waste Svcs.
Accommodation & Food Svcs.
Change in CC LQ for Top 10 Job Providers with < 50 Jobs in 1990, 1990-2002
12.4
0.8
0.8
0.6
3.0
2.1
3.2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
Forest nursery & gathering forest products
Hunting & trapping
Timber tract operations
Animal aquaculture
Sheep & goat farming
Lime & gypsum product manufacturing
Motor vehicle manufacturing
Satellite telecommunications
Other leather product manufacturing
Support activities for rail transportation
Central Coast Economic Base
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Econ Base Jobs in CC Share of CA
All Government
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Local, State, and Federal Government
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Local government, total
State government, total
Federal government, total
CC Construction
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Construction
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Residential building construction
Nonresidential building construction
Utility system construction
Land subdivision
Highway, street, & bridge construction
CC Health Care & Social Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Health Care & Social Assistance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Offices of physicians
Offices of dentists
Offices of other health practitioners
Outpatient care centers
Medical & diagnostic laboratories
CC Administrative & Waste Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Administrative & Waste Services
012345678
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Employment services
Services to buildings & dwellings
Investigation & security services
Business support services
Travel arrangement & reservation services
`
CC Retail Trade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Retail Trade
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Grocery storesHealth & personal care storesBuilding material & supplies dealersDepartment storesAutomobile dealers
CC Accommodation & Food Services
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Accommodation & Food Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
san
ds)
Full-service restaurants
Traveler accommodation
Limited-service eating places
Special food services
Drinking places, alcoholic beverages
CC Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
CC Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Support activities for crop production
Vegetable & melon farming
Fruit & tree nut farmingGreenhouse & nursery production
Other crop farming
CC Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Management of companies & enterprises
CC Professional & Technical Svcs.
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Jobs in Professional & Technical Svcs.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Architectural & engineering servicesLegal servicesScientific research & development servicesAccounting & bookkeeping servicesManagement & technical consulting services
Wholesale Trade
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
(Sh
are
of
Sta
te J
ob
s)
Jobs Share
Wholesale Trade
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Grocery & Related Product WholesalersElectronic markets & agents & brokersMisc. nondurable goods merchant wholesalersMachinery & supply merchant wholesalersCommercial equip. merchant wholesalers