Download - Essential Data for Admissions Advisers
ESSENTIAL DATA FOR ADMISSIONS ADVISERS
August 6, 2010Reuben Ternes, OIRA
OVERVIEW Presentation in 6 Parts
Introduction to OIRA Part I: FTIAC Growth Part II: Recruitment Data Part III: The Importance of Transfer Students Part IV: Comparing OU to National Data Part V: Academic Success Indicators
WHAT DOES OIRA DO? Tracks and projects enrollment Reports to federal agencies (IPEDS) Official record keeper for large amounts of
university data Analyzes policy decisions
i.e. Is it a good policy to encourage students to take 16 credits their first semester, regardless of their ACT score? What will happen to our retention rates if we change our admission requirements?
Reports graduation rates, retention rates, etc.
Gathers and reports on various student surveys.
…and much much more…
OIRA WEBSITE Fastest way to get to the website is from the
OU home page. Mouse over to Faculty and Staff.
Selecting Assessment takes you directly to OIRA home. Lots of potentially useful info on the website:
New student profiles Enrollment data, current and historical Ad hoc reports Retention and Graduation Rate Data NSSE Data Assessment data and links PowerPoint Presentations (including this one)
FTIAC GROWTH
Part I
HISTORICAL FTIACS NUMBERS 1998 - 2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
15301813188819051868
21012053221322872340235024662466?
CHALLENGES TO FTIAC GROWTH
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
Projected New Undergraduate (FTIACs) by Year
Goal Pace (25,000 by 2020)Pace Assuming No Changes (Steady State)
We are here.
UNDERSTANDING THE PROJECTIONS There are two major obstacles responsible for
the gap between the 2020 goal and the steady state projections 1). High School Demographics 2). Current Market Share
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201950,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
NCES Projections of Michigan High School Graduates 2008 - 2019
2009 OU-FTIACS BY COUNTYCounty of Origin % of 2009 FTIAC Cohort
Oakland 41.3%
Macomb 30.3%
Wayne 9.7%
Lapeer 2.9%
Genesee 2.6%
St. Clair 2.2%
Every Where Else 11.0%
MARKET SHARE, 2009 VS. 2004Market Share
County 2009 2004Oakland 16% 14%Macomb 25% 22%Wayne 4% 4%
FTIAC GROWTH: GOOD AND BAD NEWS Bad News for FTIAC Enrollment
High school graduates are down We will need to do more with less
Over 80% of our FTIACs come from only 3 counties Our market share in other counties is low and/or non-
existent. The Good News for FTIAC Enrollment
The decline in projected high school students is slightly less severe in Oakland and Macomb counties (at least for the next few years).
Our market share in both Oakland and Macomb county has increased since 2004.
RECRUITMENT DATA
Part II
HIGH SCHOOLS WITH MOST APPLICANTS
Top 22 Feeder High Schools for Fall 2009, by ApplicationsRank Name Apps Rank Name Apps
1 Eisenhower Senior High School 247 12 Rochester Adams High
School 1342 Adlai E Stevenson High
School 195 13 Avondale Senior High School 1273 Clarkston Senior High
School 191 14 Oak Park High School 1124 Dakota High School 175 15 Chippewa Valley High School 1085 Lake Orion Cmty High
School 174 16 Utica High School 1086 Athens High School 167 17 West Bloomfield High School 1037 Rochester High School 165 18 Oxford High School 938 Troy High School 162 19 Paul K Cousino Sr High
School 929 Stoney Creek High
School 143 20 Fraser High School 8910 Romeo High School 142 21 L Anse Creuse High School N 8611 Henry Ford II High
School 136 22 Notre Dame Preparatory 85
HIGH SCHOOLS WITH HIGHEST YIELDTop 22 High Schools by Yield (enrollees per application),
for Fall 2009 (for HS w/ 30 or more Apps)Rank Name Yield Rank Name Yield
1 Lapeer East High School 0.50 12 Holly Senior High School 0.38
2 Anchor Bay High School 0.46 13 Brandon High School 0.38
3 Bishop Foley High School 0.45 14 Sterling Heights High School 0.38
4 Avondale Senior High School* 0.45 15 Lake Shore Senior High School 0.38
5 Romeo High School* 0.43 16 Rochester High School* 0.37
6 Adlai E Stevenson High School* 0.42 17 Dakota High School* 0.36
7 Oakland Christian School* 0.42 18 Walled Lake Central High Sch 0.35
8 Eisenhower Senior High School* 0.4 19 Lapeer West High School 0.34
9 Waterford Kettering High Sch 0.4 20 Seaholm High School 0.34
10 Lamphere High School 0.4 21 Lahser High School 0.34
11 Paul K Cousino Sr High School* 0.39 22 Utica High School* 0.33
* Represents one of the 22 highest feeder schools (by application)
YIELD BY HS GPA Many variables are correlated with yield (the
probability that an applicant will attend OU). HS GPA and ACT scores come to mind, but there
are lots of other variables too. HS GPA is often thought of as the ‘better’ of
the two predictors, but often they each add important information.
The relationship between HS GPA and yield follows a non-obvious (and non-linear) pattern.
YIELD BY HS GPA FOR FALL 2009
HS GPA
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Yie
ld
SWITCHING FOCUS: THE ROLE OF THE TRANSFER STUDENT
Part III
PART III: TRANSFER DATA Historically, OU has focused much of its
attention towards FTIACs, but transfers make up a large portion of new OU students too. 2466 new FTIACs in 2009 1677 new transfer students in 2009
So far, FTIACs for Fall 2010 are down 4%. Transfers are up 28%. Will these numbers hold? Final numbers won’t be in for some time, but this
represents a huge surge in transfer students so far.
TOTAL NEW STUDENT ENROLLMENT
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
FTIACsTransfersTotal
If current pace con-tinues
WHERE DO OUR TRANSFER STUDENTS COME FROM?Campus Name FA09 New X-fers
Macomb Cmty Coll Center Campus 275Oakland Cmty College 193
OCC - Auburn Hills Campus 116Macomb Cmty Coll South Campus 84
OCC - Orchard Ridge Campus 53OCC - Royal Oak Campus 49
OCC - Highland Lakes Campus 48Central Michigan University 41Michigan State University 40St Clair Co Cmty College 36Henry Ford Cmty College 35
Wayne County Cmty College 34Wayne State University 34
Grand Valley State University 33Schoolcraft College 32
Westrn Michigan University 28
TRANSFER STUDENT PROFILE (FALL 2009) Approximately 66% come from 2-year
colleges while 33% come from 4-year institutions.
Over 50% were under the age of 22. 25% are over the age of 26.
70% were full-time. Most students had a GPA of a 2.5 or higher
from their former institution. Half had a GPA of 3.0 or higher.
SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES: COMPARING OU TO NATIONAL DATA
Part IV
SURVEYS OU has two major student surveys.
CIRP (freshmen only) NSEE (freshmen and seniors)
These surveys give us information about our student body. How many hours they work? How difficult they find courses to be at OU How much money their parents make How often they drink Why they choose OU Etc…
The NSSE data is available on the OIRA webpage. Mostly, we find that OU is similar to other
institutions. However, there are some differences.
IMPORTANT REASONS TO SELECT OU
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
010203040506070
Academic reputation Grads get good jobs* Cost Live near home Financial assistance
Perc
ent
THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING UP TO DATE WITH POLITICS
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
OUComparison
MARIJUANA SHOULD BE LEGALIZED
1993
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
OUComparison
Perc
ent
Agre
e
DRANK BEER DURING HIGH SCHOOL YEAR
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
0102030405060
Drank Beer in High School
OUCompar-ison
MORE THAN 15 HOURS PER WEEK WORKING OFF CAMPUS
Class Oakland Selected Peers
First-Year 35% 24%
Seniors 61% 52%
TIME SPENT PREPARING FOR CLASS
2003 2005 2007 20093.103.203.303.403.503.603.703.803.904.004.10
OUPeer
“THE ENVIRONMENT EMPHASIZES SPENDING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TIME ON ACADEMIC WORK”
2003 2005 2007 20092.90
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3.25
OUPeer
ACADEMIC SUCCESS INDICATORS
Part V
% OF FTIAC IN PROBATION END OF FIRST SEMESTER
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18.6%20.5%
18.2% 17.8% 17.4%16.0%
RETENTION TO SECOND YEAR
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
One Year Retention
GRADUATION BY 1ST-TERM CREDITS
19921993199419951996199719981999200020010.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Total12-1314+
6-YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY ACT SCORE
6 YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY HS GPA
FIRST YEAR RETENTION RATE BY ACT SCORE
FIRST YEAR RETENTION BY HS GPA
QUESTIONS What questions do you have for me? What questions do you have for OIRA? What data do you use on a regular basis? What information do you need? What tools do you need to turn your data into
information?