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ExExperiment periment oon n TTyphoon yphoon IIntensity ntensity
Chang in Chang in CCoastal oastal AArea (EXOTICA)rea (EXOTICA)
Lei Xiao-tuShanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA
2015.1.20 Ningbo, China
UNESCAP/WMO TC cross-cutting project:
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Outline
1. Background (context)
2. Scientific issues & objectives
3. Field Campaigns & demonstrating
research
4. Strategy and management
5. Progress and future plan
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RSMC Tokyo
JTWC
CMA
HKO
KMA
Time Series of the Annual Average Position Errors of Operational TC track Forecasts in NW Pacific
In general, the errors have been decreasing
(E48hr, now ~ E24hr,15yr bf )
However year-to year variations exist that are due mainly to differences in the annual number of TCs
and difficulty in forecasting TC track
In general, the errors have been decreasing
(E48hr, now ~ E24hr,15yr bf )
However year-to year variations exist that are due mainly to differences in the annual number of TCs
and difficulty in forecasting TC track
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Performance in TC Track Forecasting by Global NWP
Systems
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Significant prediction errors still exist and there are prediction cases
where the position error can exceed 1000 km over 3 days.
Although the theories of TC motion might have reached a satisfactory
level, our knowledge on the causes of prediction errors is still poor.
Typhoon Megi initiated at 1200 UTC 25th Oct. 2010
Observed track
Typhoon Conson initiated at 1200 UTC 12th Jul. 2010
MCGE-9 (BOM, CMA, CMC, CPTEC, ECMWF, JMA, KMA, NCEP, UKMO)
Challenges for track forecast: 1) Near coast & Landfalling
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1412
1109
Challenges for track forecast: 1)Near coast & Landfalling
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2009-13 NHC official track forecast error
binned by initial intensity for the Atlantic basin
The track errors averaged over the past 5 years are largest for the weakest initial intensity TCs.
Model improvements are still required with an emphasis to increase numerical track forecast skill for the weak or initial stages of TCs.
The track errors averaged over the past 5 years are largest for the weakest initial intensity TCs.
Model improvements are still required with an emphasis to increase numerical track forecast skill for the weak or initial stages of TCs.
Challenges for track forecast: 2)weak stage
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NCEP-GFS
forecast tracks
From : http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn
NCEP-GFS Track Error for "Fitow"
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2013093012UTC2013100100UTC2013100112UTC2013100200UTC2013100212UTC2013100300UTC2013100312UTC2013100400UTC2013100412UTC
120h error
Large errors
Although, considerable progress have been made in recent four years for global models, there still
are some incredible errors at long lead time levels in 2013, such as typhoon “Fitow”.
Large errors are mainly appear in the early stage of the life cycle of “Fitow”.
Initial
times
Case: large tCase: large track forecast error during the weaker stage rack forecast error during the weaker stage (“Fitow”2013)(“Fitow”2013)
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Mean intensity errors in official operational forecast in
NW Pacific from (JMA,JTWC, CMA)
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24h 48h 72h 96h 120hECMWF-IFS 10.82 15.29 18.38 20.14 20.13
NCEP-GFS 7.80 10.75 12.70 13.28 13.11UKMO-MetUM 9.80 15.36 18.17 18.90 18.88
JMA-GSM 9.44 15.64 19.33
KMA-GDAPS 10.67 17.19 21.72 24.32 25.65
CMA-T639 8.43 12.04 13.80 14.49 14.19
Mean Intensity Error in 2013
(m/s)
ECMWF-IFS intensity error from 2010 to 2013The intensity forecast did not have distinct improvement in recent four years
Challenges for intensity forecast: 1 ) landfalling(weaker-before, stronger after landfall) 2 ) weak (early and ending), super typhoon, rapid change
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ECMWF-IFSUKMO-MetUM NCEP-GFS JMA-GSM KMA-GDAPS CMA-T639-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50 48h
Inte
nsi
ty E
rro
r (m
/s)
24h
ECMWF-IFSUKMO-MetUM NCEP-GFS JMA-GSM KMA-GDAPS CMA-T639-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Inte
nsi
ty E
rro
r (m
/s)
ECMWF-IFSUKMO-MetUM NCEP-GFS JMA-GSM KMA-GDAPS CMA-T639-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Inte
nsi
ty E
rro
r (m
/s)
72h
ECMWF-IFSUKMO-MetUM NCEP-GFS JMA-GSM KMA-GDAPS CMA-T639-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Inte
nsi
ty E
rro
r (m
/s)
96h
Before landing: The forecast results of intensity were extremely weaker than OBS.
After landing: The forecast results of intensity were stronger than OBS.
The capability of intensity forecast for global model still have great room for improvement in the future.
Super-Typhoon
HAIYAN (1330)HAIYAN (1330)
Case: large iCase: large intensity forecast (“Haiyan”2013)ntensity forecast (“Haiyan”2013)
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Time
T0922(NIDA)
Time
CI number
T1013(MEGI)
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T1330(HAIYAN)Large difference in CI Numbers are found after Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines.
Time
•2013 11 08 00 UTC
In the weakening stage, a time lag of 12 hours is provided between T-number and CI-number because of the fact that decline of a cloud system precedes the decrease in intensity. At landing, RSMC Tokyo
decreases CI-number with the T-number without a time lag.
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45th Session Final Report of TC
Paragraph 45.t:
“ WGM In conjunction with other WGs and TRCG, to take the lead in designing and formulating a tropical cyclone field experiment within the region, in particular by making use of the available opportunity in collaborating with the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) planned by the WGTMR of WMO for implementation in 2013 (spin-up phase) and 2014 (field phase), and hold a small expert meeting to draft the proposal if necessary.”
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Drafting Process
1st Version Draft: March 2013, on behalf of WGM, STI/CMA drafted
the 1st version of the plan. Symposium: March 2013, Chaired by Ms. JIAO Meiyan, a
coordinated meeting was held in CMA, attended by Dr. LEI Xiaotu (Chairperson of WGM), Prof. LUO Yali (Chief Scientist of SCMREX), Prof. DUAN Yihong (Chair of WMO/WGTMR).
Circulate: the 1st draft was circulated among TRCG.
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Drafting Process (con.)
2nd Version Revise: April 2013
Present: May 2013, AWG small meeting-Bangkok (Jun YU)
May 2013, 8th WGDRR workshop-Seoul (Derek Leong)
October 2013, 2nd WGH workshop-Seoul (Jin ping LIU)
3rd Version Revise: November 2013 Present: December 2013, 8th IWS and 2nd TRCG Forum
4th Version Revise: January – February, 2014 Submit: February 2014, 46th Session
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Topic: Intensity change (RI/RW): Weaker stage (TD RI to TS) in the coastal area of TC region Landfalling (RI & TS RW to TD)
Scientific issues: The effect of non-uniform complex surface and the sea-land-atmosphere
interaction on the boundary layer wind distribution of tropical cyclone The predictability and credibility of the prognostic of the intensity changes The impact of the intensity changes on the tidal level and the flooding in
the flood plain of this region The impact of the intensity changes on the vulnerability of the disaster of
typhoons in the Asia Pacific Region
2.1 Scientific issues
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2.2 Goals and objectives
Field campaigns (target typhoon observation) 3-5 target typhoons per year Test new monitoring techniques: aircraft (drop-sound), mobile/automatic
GPS (rise-sound), buoy array,…. rocket (drop-sound) gather the comprehensive observation data related to the target typhoon
Demonstration research Improve the knowledge of abnormal intensity change (RI & RW), in
particularly, the genesis (in SCS) and disappear (after landfall)
Improve the performance of typhoon intensity determine and regional
numerical modeling
Develop the storm surge (urban city) , flooding (inland) forecasting and
damage risk estimate/forecast system
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1. NWP model and EPS (3 slides)
2. Application
Consensus (1 slide)
Ensemble mean (1 slide)
3. Data assimilation
TC initialization
Data assimilation methods (1 slide)
Assimilation of satellite-based observations (2 slides)
Assimilation of aircraft-based observations (3 slides)
IWTC-8:
Three factors may be attributed to this
improvement in TC track forecasts by the NWP systems:
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Field Campaigns (progress of international typhoon society)
CBLAST-LOW T-PARC/TCS-08 SPECTRUM DOTSTAR
use of advanced
instruments and equipment
on target hurricane, the
strong wind background
between the sea – air
exchange and
transmission
Using the drop sounding, rafting sounding, microwave radiometer, land-based wind profile radar, doppler wind radar, etc. Focus on the formation of tropical cyclones, strengthening, structural change, moving, degeneration and so on.
Using observation ships,
buoys, wind profile radar
sounding system, etc. in the
northwest Pacific region to
carry out the moving
characteristics under weak
environment of typhoon
For the first time in the Pacific northwest with drop sounding and aircraft detection for typhoon. 32 typhoon aircraft reconnaissance, 39 voyages since 2003. powerfully impelled the research for typhoon structure and data assimilation
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26
2008/09/11 12UTC
Initial Time2008/09/11 12UTC
Special Observations (09-15UTC)Aircraft dropsondes: 24Upper soundings (vessels): 2Upper soundings (observatories):3
2008/09/11 12UTC935hPa
Impact of Special Observations for SINLAKU
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9/12
9/129/12
9/11 12UTC Init
9/13
9/14
9/15
9/169/17
9/18
9/139/14
9/15
9/16
9/17
9/18
9/13
9/14
9/15
9/16
9/17
• The special observation data have a large impact on the forecast of the recurvature for Typhoon SINLAKU.
• The experiment with special observation data predicted recurvature.
Recurvature !
No Recurvature
• There was no recurvature in the experiment without special observation data.
Without Special OBS.
With Special OBS.
(2008/09/11 12UTC)
Without Special OBS.
With Special OBS.
Impact of Special Observations for SINLAKU
GSMGSM Forecast Forecast WithWith
Special ObservationSpecial Observation
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Aberson (2010, MWR)
From 1997-2006:
the assimilation of the
supplementary dropwindsondes
improved NCEP GFS track
forecasts by 10-15% during the
first 60 h of the forecasts.
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WMO Report: Conclusions• Observations are
important both
within and outside
the TC, varies from
case to case
• Observations
targeted in selected
areas are mostly
beneficial
• Aircraft are often
unable to cover
target areas
NOGAPS SV JMA SV
UM ETKF UK ETKF COAMPS ADJ
Targeted observations
Wu et al. (2009), Reynolds et al. (2010), Majumdar et al. (2011a),
Aberson et al. (2011), Hoover et al. (2013)
ECMWF SV
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Which subset of dropwindsondes improves the ECMWF typhoon track forecast the most?
remote sensitive regions
Small improvements
imp
rove
men
t
degradation
typhoon center and core
neutral
degradationim
pro
vem
ent
typhoon vicinity
Largest improvements
degradation
imp
rove
men
t
Harnisch and Weissmann (2010, MWR)
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Current status of “operational” airborne observations of TCs
DOTSTAR(NTU, CWB, TTFRI etc)
Aircraft: ASTRA SPX
Wu et al. (2005, BAMS)
Hurricane Hunters(US Air Force and NOAA)Aircraft: WC130, P-3, G-IV
Hurricane hunter association
NOAA
WC130
G-IV
P-3
AIMMS-20(Hong Kong)Aircraft: J41
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Develop & refine observing technologies: Global Hawk UAS
• 282 total dropsondes deployed during more than 58 h over and near the storm
• 16 September flight plan designed and coordinated by NOAA scientists
• Multiple drops into eye and eyewall from Global Hawk 60,000 ft
• Select dropsondes suggested rapid intensification on 15 September
• Novel observations documenting storm decay over colder waters
• Dropsonde data processed in real time, transmitted to NWS gateway, and assimilated in operational WRF model
• Observations will facilitate several forecast impact studies with multiple numerical models
4 flights sampled life cycle of Edouard from tropical storm to extra-tropical transition11 September, Tropical Storm 14 September, Category 1
16 September, Category 3 18 September, Decay34
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Intensity: Min. SLP Error (hPa)
HS3 drops
No drops
Bias (dash)
Sensitive regions in Nadine were often well observed by HS3 dropwindsondes
Dropwindsonde impact experiments performed for 19-28 Sep. (3 flights)
HS3 drops
No drops with synthetics
COAMPS-TC intensity and track skill are markedly improved using HS3 drops.
NASA Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3)Impact of HS3 Dropwindsondes for Nadine (2012)
HS3 drops
No drops
HS3 Global Hawk Flight Tracks: Nadine
30 Drops
70 Drops
76 Drops
58 Drops
34 Drops
75 Drops
J. Doyle
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When: September 16 and 17 2014
Where: Hurricane Edouard boundary layer inflow channel
UAS flight duration: 68 minutes
Minimum (controlled) Altitude: 400m
Maximum Wind Speed: 53kt @6m
•36
Low-level unmanned aircraft: Coyote
J. Cione
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Multi-instrument coordinating
observation
(satellite, radar…
WMO network, and
dropsonde …
Multi-instrument(EXOTICA)
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Area of field campaign
(EXOTICA)
S
ECMA
EXOTICA
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Field Campaigns (South China Sea)
Period : Jun-Jul & Sep-Oct (2014-
2017)
Region Cover: China (Guangdong, Guangxi and
Hainan), Hong Kong/China, Macao/ China,
Philippines, Viet Nam. Focus on: genesis, rapid enhance, super-
typhoon
海上观测平台
100m 观测铁塔
北山观测站
6.5km
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New instruments (South China Sea)
HKO
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2.3 Field Campaigns (East China Sea)
Period : July. – Oct. (2014-2016)
Region Cover: China (Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai,
Jiangsu, Shandong ,Taiwan), Japan, Republic
of Korea, DPRK. Overlap with SCMREX Focus on: sudden weakening, dissipation, ET
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New instruments (East China Sea)
Oil Platform (in ECS)
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Requested… (TC 45th Session)
WGs - WGM (AOP10, PP1) - TRCG Members - CMA, HKO, KMA, JMA - HRD …
WGs - WGM (AOPs, WMO-FDP) - TRCG (WMO-RDP) - WGH & WGDRR (AOPs)Members - CMA, HKO, KMA,JMA, Viet Nam… - HRD…
EXOTICA (Implementation schedule)
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Organization Structure On the small meeting
Planned (2014): To hold a two-day
OC meeting in Shanghai on June 30,
To established the OC (Organizing Committee) of EXOTICA
Implementation: OC meeting
conjunction with AWG meeting
Almost AWG members have not available time (during TCs season) to attend the meeting
Postpone (2015)
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Surveillance flight (HKO ,
since 2012 )
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Planned action of ROK in
2015-2016KMA launched the aircraft project for target observationsKMA launched the aircraft project for target observations
Since 2012, KMA has begun an aircraft launching project for the purpose of severe weather
• observation, the precipitation enhancement experiment and the characterization of the atmospheric• climate change. The aircraft will be equipped with 14 kinds of instruments, which include a dropsonde system, • glaciogenic and hygroscopic cloud seeding systems, four kinds of cloud property measurement• and atmospheric aerosol and pollutant gas monitoring systems. From 2016, KMA could carry out three dimensional target observation and the data would be • shared for domestic and international operation and research purpose.
•
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Planned action of China(pilot/spin-up….)
To continue the mobile sounding (CMA) To build “National Typhoon Observing Station in East China” To pilot the un-man aircraft in ECS (S&T Ministry’s project) To pilot “Rocket sounding” in SCS & ECS (S&T Ministry’s project) To pilot “Yi-satellite buoy” in SCS (National key research program-973)
National Typhoon observing
station
National Typhoon observing
station
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Mobile m
onitory system
(STI/C
MA
)
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Progress (a-1)
STI/CMA
On the field campaign (mobile..)
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Progress (a-2)
STI/CMA
On the field campaign (buoy array)
June-Augest,2014June-Augest,2014站位 经度 纬度 备注F1 116°00′ 19°40′
气象 +150KADCP + 自容温盐链 (15pcs) +波浪
F2 115°30′ 18°10′气象 +150KADCP + 自容温盐链 (15pcs)
F3 116°30′ 18°40′气象 +单点海流计 +直读耦合温度链 (10pcs)
F4 117°30′ 19°10′气象 +300KADCP + 自容温盐链 (15pcs) +波浪
F5 117°00′ 17°40′气象 +300KADCP + 自容温盐链 (15pcs) +波浪
M1 116°01′15″ 19°37′31″
300KADCP upward/75KADCP downward(280m)+ SEAGUARD(Meters above bottom 100m/50m/10m)+SBE37(MAB 50m/30m/10m)
M2 115°32′50″ 18°11′28″
300KADCP upward/75KADCP downward(280m)+ SEAGUARD(Meters above bottom 100m/10m)
M4 117°27′10″ 19°08′35″
300KADCP upward/75KADCP downward(160m)+ SEAGUARD(Meters above bottom 100m/10m)
M5 116°58′50″ 17°42′21″
300KADCP upward/75KADCP downward(160m)+ SEAGUARD(Meters above bottom 100m/10m)
Internet
CLS America
铱卫星
铱星浮标
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Satellite buoy array: Super Typhoon(Rammasun,2014)Satellite buoy array: Super Typhoon(Rammasun,2014)
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Satellite buoy array (2Satellite buoy array (2ndnd case-super typhoon Kalmaegi) case-super typhoon Kalmaegi)
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56325 - 186 米 15s ?
2011080623
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Upgraded GRAPES-TCM
Data Assimilation
Data Assimilation
Post Processing
Post Processing
Verification &
Assessment
Verification &
Assessment
Vortex Initializatio
n
Vortex Initializatio
n
GRAPES Meso-scale
Model
GRAPES Meso-scale
Model
Hybrid System Based on GSI
Updated dynamics &
GFS based physics
NCL-based data processing & illustration
Database techniques &conventional-special verification combined
To be consolidated into a single package
HWRF Scheme
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GRAPES-TCM (Old)GRAPES-TCM(New)
GRAPES-TCM(New), July-Oct. 2014
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Progress (b-1)
STI/CMA
On the field campaign (UAV-prepared)
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Progress (b-2)
STI/CMA
On the field campaign (Rock dropsonde- prepared)
三沙基地
大陈岛(发射点)
作业指挥中心
万宁(发射点)
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Plan in 2015
To hold the OC meeting (May, 2015, Shanghai) (May, 2015, Shanghai) for preparing the implementation (field campaign in 2015) of the experiment Establish the SSC and 3 RGs (Field Campaign, Basic Research, Typhoon
Modeling)
Confirm the tasks of participating TC Members on the field campaign in 2015
To test the field campaign by using aircraft (un/manned) drop-sounds, mobile GPS rise-sound and rocket drop-sound CMA: mobile GPS rise-sound, aircraft (unmanned), rocket drop-sound, Yi-
satellite buoys
HKO: aircraft (manned) drop-sound
Demonstration research on tropical cyclone intensity change by using target typhoon data from the field campaign (to be included in the TC Fellowship Scheme) High-resolution typhoon modeling (specially, target typhoon data assimilation)
Mechanism of target typhoon intensity change
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Plan in 2015
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Multi-instrument coordinating
observation
(satellite, radar…
WMO network, and
dropsonde …
Multi-instrument(EXOTICA)
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WMO RDP (.or. HIWeather
Programme) ?
Welcome to join us
(EXOTICA)……
Thank you for your attention!