Download - FAA Air Traffic Organization NAS Operational Analyses and Challenges to Modeling the Future
FAAAir Traffic Organization
NAS Operational Analyses andChallenges to Modeling the Future
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Operations Planning
OperationalEvolution
PlanOffice
SystemsEngineering
Office
William J. Hughes
Technical Center
Vice PresidentVicki Cox - Acting
StrategyOffice
Aviation Research
& DevelopmentOffice
NAS Weather
Office
Forecasts & Operations Analysis
Business Outlook Strategy Development
& Analysis
PerformanceAnalysis
Office
InternationalOffice
TechnologyDevelopment
Office
FAAAir Traffic Organization
ATO ATO Strategy and NAS PerformanceStrategy and NAS Performance
ATO-P Forecast Tool
ACES/NASPAC/etcATO NAS Performance Tools
NAS Strategy Simulator
ATO-P Strategic AnalysisCapability
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Why have Trajectory Based Forecast?
• Keeps lots of O.R. analysts in business!
•Drives focus on flows and en route constraints
•Helps revenue estimates
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Annual NAS Traffic Change– Traffic increased 5.9% from CY00 to CY05.
Total Center Traffic - ETMS
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
50000000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Bo
un
da
ry C
ros
sin
gs
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Center Level Changes
Center % Traffic Change CY00-CY0518%
13% 12%12%
11%9%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
6% 6%5%
1% 0% 0%
0%-1%
-2% -3%-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Z
AB
ZA
N
ZA
U
ZB
W
ZD
C
ZD
V
ZF
W
ZH
U
ZID
ZJX
ZK
C
ZL
A
ZL
C
ZM
A
ZM
E
ZM
P
ZN
Y
ZO
A
ZO
B
ZS
E
ZT
L
% C
ha
ng
e
FAAAir Traffic Organization
User Class Changes
User Class % Change CY00-CY05
9.73%
1.79%3.40%
9.06%
-8.91%
-12%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
GA JET GA Piston GA Turbo Total GA Commercial
%C
ha
ng
e
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Regional Carrier Changes
Regional vs. Other Commercial Traffic % Change CY00-CY05
46.91%
-1.93%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
Regional Carriers Other Commercial
% C
han
ge
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Mainline vs. LCC % Change CY00-CY05
-20%
26%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
Mainline Low Cost
% C
ha
ng
e
Commercial Mainline vs. LCC
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Independence Air at ZDC
Total ZDC Operations
170000
190000
210000
230000
250000
270000
290000
310000
330000
350000Ja
n-0
0
Ap
r-00
Jul-
00
Oct
-00
Jan
-01
Ap
r-01
Jul-
01
Oct
-01
Jan
-02
Ap
r-02
Jul-
02
Oct
-02
Jan
-03
Ap
r-03
Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-04
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Op
erat
ion
s
IndependenceAir
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Flight Level Workload Changes
Low: <280 High: >= 280 and <= 390 Super High: >390
Traffic By Altitude (CY00-CY05)
-1%
15%
110%
20%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
LOW_ATL HIGH_ALT SUPER_HIGH TOTAL HIGH
% C
ha
ng
e
FAAAir Traffic Organization
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
% Change CY’00-CY’05
Low Altitude Workload Changes(By Center)
FAAAir Traffic Organization
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
% Change CY’00-CY’05
High Altitude Workload Changes(By Center)
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Why have Seasonal Forecasting?
• Demand– Seasonal schedules– Peak vs. Low traffic months– Seasonal impacts on workload
• Operational Constraints– Seasonal constraints– NAS delay procedures
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Seasonal Schedules
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
Jan-
03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
Nov
-03
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Sch
edu
led
Arr
ival
s
Spring Break
Spring BreakSummer
Summer
Winter
Data: MIA (ASPM)
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Peak vs. Low Traffic Volume
% Difference in Traffic Volume CY05(Peak Month vs. Low Month)
60%56%
39%
33% 31%
27% 25%22% 21% 21% 20% 19% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
ZM
A
ZA
N
ZB
W
ZJX
ZS
E
ZM
P
ZLC
ZD
V
ZN
Y
ZO
B
ZA
U
ZK
C
ZF
W
ZO
A
ZM
E
ZT
L
ZID
ZD
C
ZH
U
ZA
B
ZLA
% D
iffe
ren
ce
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Seasonal Impacts on Workload
ZMA vs. ZMP Operations
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Jan
-00
Ma
y-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Jan
-01
Ma
y-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Jan
-02
Ma
y-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Jan
-03
Ma
y-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Jan
-04
Ma
y-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-05
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Jan
-06
Op
era
tio
ns
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Importance of Seasonal Forecasting
• Operational Constraints– Seasonal constraints– NAS delay procedures
• Demand– Seasonal schedules– Peak vs. Low traffic months– Seasonal impacts on workload
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Seasonal Change in Constraints
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan-
00
May
-01
Oct
-02
Feb
-04
Jul-0
5
Lat
e F
lig
hts
(%
)
% Late Flights OEP35
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Seasonal Constraints
IMC Operations and Conditions By Season
26%
15% 15% 15%
27%
16% 16%17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
%IMC FLIGHTS
%IMC PERIODS
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Seasonal Constraints
Convective Weather Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
CW
I
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Modeling Challenges
• Where delay is taken vs. cause of delay - En route congestion
• Convective weather case
• Annualizing results
• Interconnectivity of delay
•Uncertainty in demand
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Where Delay is Taken
Gate Delay vs. Airborne Delay By Season
12.50
8.55
13.32
8.04
1.60 1.62 1.20 1.44
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
Dela
y (M
inut
es)
Gate Dep. DelayAirborne Delay
FAAAir Traffic Organization
- How much is driven by en route/convective congestion?
Gate vs. Total Delay
OEP35 Gate. Dep. Delay vs. OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan
-00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan
-01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan
-02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan
-03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
De
lay
(M
inu
tes
)
Avg. Gate Dep. Delay
Avg. Gate Arrival Delay
FAAAir Traffic Organization
MIA Arrivals vs. Gate Delay
MIA Arrivals vs. Avg.Gate Dep. Delay
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Ja
n-0
0
Ap
r-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Oc
t-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ap
r-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Oc
t-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ap
r-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Oc
t-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ap
r-0
3
Ju
l-0
3
Oc
t-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Ju
l-0
4
Oc
t-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ap
r-0
5
Ju
l-0
5
Arr
iva
ls
0
5
10
15
20
25
De
lay
(M
in.)
Arrivals
GateDepDelay
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Interconnectivity of Delay
MIA Gate Arrival Delay vs. OEP 35 Gate Arrival Delay
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-
00
Apr
-00
Jul-0
0
Oct
-00
Jan-
01
Apr
-01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Jan-
02
Apr
-02
Jul-0
2
Oct
-02
Jan-
03
Apr
-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan-
04
Apr
-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-0
5
Del
ay (
Min
.)
MIA Gate Arr Delay
OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay
FAAAir Traffic Organization
M IA G ate Arr iv al D e lay v s. O E P 35 G ate D e p artu re D e lay
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ja
n-0
0
Ap
r-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Oc
t-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ap
r-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Oc
t-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ap
r-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Oc
t-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ap
r-0
3
Ju
l-0
3
Oc
t-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Ju
l-0
4
Oc
t-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ap
r-0
5
Ju
l-0
5
De
lay
(M
in.)
M IA G ateA rrD e lay
O E P 35 G ateD epD elay
Interconnectivity of Delay
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Forecast Uncertainties
FAAAir Traffic Organization
• Current FAA forecasts provide annual activity levels
• Current FAA forecasts assume aviation business models stay the same
• Actual demand varies seasonally, daily, and hourly
• Aviation industry is fundamentally changing
• Understanding these changes is essential to preparing for the future
Summary
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Current Demand Forecasting
Forecasted IFR Aircraft Handled(2006 Forecasting Conference)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
800002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Air
cra
ft(T
ho
us
an
ds
)
Military
General Aviation
Air Taxi/Commuter
Air Carrier
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Mainline Legacy Carriers
Main Line % Change CY00-CY0584%
56%
29%
8%0%
-6%-12%
-19%-26%
-33%-40%
-20%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%A
LO
HA
HA
WA
IIA
N
SP
IRIT
AL
AS
KA
MID
WE
ST
AM
ER
ICA
N
NO
RT
HW
ES
T
CO
NT
INE
NT
AL
DE
LT
A
Un
ite
d
U.S
. A
irw
ay
s
To
tal
Ma
inli
ne
% C
ha
ng
e
FAAAir Traffic Organization
Low Cost Carriers
– Independence Air began flying in 2004.
Low Cost Carrier % Change CY00-CY05
112%90%
13%
-4% -7%
26%
993%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%J
et
Blu
e
Fro
nti
er
So
uth
we
st
Air
tra
n
Am
eri
ca
We
st
Am
eri
ca
nT
ran
s
To
tal
LC
C
% C
ha
ng
e
FAAAir Traffic Organization
6/20/2005 FAAAir Traffic OrganizationDecember 2005
ADJUSTED OPERATIONAL AVAILABILITY AT THE 35 OEP AIRPORTS
99.77
99.5
98.9
99.0
99.1
99.2
99.3
99.4
99.5
99.6
99.7
99.8
99.9
100.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept YTD Targ
Perc
en
t A
vailab
ility
FY 2005 FY 2006 YTD Target
6/20/2005 FAAAir Traffic OrganizationFebruary 2005
Airport Weather by Category (OEP 35)
74.3777.87
73.52
80.0976.36 76.26
65.16
71.85 70.0375.67
11.210.59
10.37
10.18
9.45 10.15
12.49
12.8612.31
10.82
10.517.85
10.21
6.579.03 8.57
13.02
9.7810.13
8.13
3.91 3.69 5.893.15 5.16
9.335.51 7.53 5.395.02
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY04 FY05 FY04 FY05 FY04 FY05 FY05 FY 06 FY05 FY06
October November December January February
Pe
rce
nt
Sc
he
du
led
Op
era
tio
ns
None Minor Moderate Severe
FAAAir Traffic Organization
FY 2006 Category A&B Operational Errors(Counts & Rates)
* FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated activity counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month
6158
43 45
34
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.61
4.294.14
3.93
4.27
4.62
0.00
0.75
1.50
2.25
3.00
3.75
4.50
5.25
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Rat
e p
er M
illio
n A
ctiv
ity
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY 06 Cat A&B Count Performance Limit
FY 06 Estimated Rate FY 05 Actual Rate
FY 2006 Performance Limit4.27 per million activity
6158
43 45
34
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.61
4.294.14
3.93
4.27
4.62
0.00
0.75
1.50
2.25
3.00
3.75
4.50
5.25
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Rat
e p
er M
illio
n A
ctiv
ity
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY 06 Cat A&B Count Performance Limit
FY 06 Estimated Rate FY 05 Actual Rate
FY 2006 Performance Limit4.27 per million activity
6/20/2005 FAAAir Traffic OrganizationFebruary 2005
AVERAGE DAILY CAPACITY AT THE EIGHT METROPOLITAN AREAS
70424
68,750
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep YTD Targ
AR
RIV
AL
+ D
EP
AR
TU
RE
CA
PA
CIT
Y
FY 2006 YTD Target
6/20/2005 FAAAir Traffic OrganizationFebruary 2005
NAS ON-TIME ARRIVALS at 35 OEP
88.35
87.4
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep YT Tar
FY 2005 FY2006 YTD Target
FAAAir Traffic Organization
FY 2006 Category A&B Runway Incursions (Counts & Rates)
* FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated operation counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month
4
1
0
3
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.493
0.340
0.4120.377
0.551
0.766
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Rat
e p
er M
illio
n O
per
atio
ns
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
FY 06 Cat A&B Count Performance Limit
FY 06 Estimated Rate FY 05 Actual Rate
FY 2006 Performance Limit.551 per million operations
4
1
0
3
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.493
0.340
0.4120.377
0.551
0.766
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Rat
e p
er M
illio
n O
per
atio
ns
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
FY 06 Cat A&B Count Performance Limit
FY 06 Estimated Rate FY 05 Actual Rate
FY 2006 Performance Limit.551 per million operations
6/20/2005 FAAAir Traffic OrganizationFebruary 2005
AVERAGE DAILY CAPACITY AT THE 35 OEP AIRPORTS
101296
101191
97000
98000
99000
100000
101000
102000
103000
104000
105000
106000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep YTD Tar
AR
RIV
AL
+ D
EP
AR
TU
RE
CA
PA
CIT
Y
FY 2005 FY 2006 YTD Target
FAAAir Traffic Organization
OE: FY06 Critical Acquisitions on Schedule and Budget
• FY06 85% Acquisition Target– Cost Target: Ensure 85% of major baseline Capital Investment programs are within
10% of budget.
– Schedule Target: Ensure 85% of major Capital Investment programs meet established activity milestone schedule dates
– Status
• Current FY06 Cost targets are within their 10% budget thresholds.
• 100 % of the 85% Schedule milestones are on schedule.
– Nine (9) of the 39 Final milestones (23%) have been completed on or ahead of schedule through the December reporting period.
– Eight Interim milestones (57%) have also been completed through December
• 39 milestones are being tracked against 31 programs for the FY06 85% Acquisition Goal
• Fourteen (14) interim milestones are also tracked and not included as part of the 85% Acquisition Performance Goal Metric
• A total of 53 milestones will be statused each month (the 39 + the 14)
FAAAir Traffic Organization
OE: Critical Acquisitions on Schedule and Budget
– Four Final milestones are due in January.