Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 1Feb/2012
Mark Jaccard
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser University
February, 2012
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Deluding Ourselves to Disaster:
Why We Fail to Act on the Climate Threat
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 2Feb/2012
Outline
The climate change threat and our motives for action
The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, impacts
Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions
Reasons for the multi-decade failure to act, with focus on delusions
Personal and collective strategies for effective climate action
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 3Feb/2012
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Today
Tipping point
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 4Feb/2012
Self-interest – each of us is inside the test tube of a global experiment that scientists say will have catastrophic impacts on us and our offspring.
Responsibility for the biosphere – climate change to cause mass extinctions.
Responsibility for other humans – rich countries developed by burning fossil fuels, yet initial impacts will be concentrated in poorer countries.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Values and acting on the climate threat
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 5Feb/2012
Responsibility by country in cumulative carbon
emissions
Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis, EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 6Feb/2012
Climate-related mortality per million people by
2000
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 7Feb/2012
Prescription vs prediction
While different values lead to different “prescriptions” for how humans ought to act, what might we realistically hope for, given human tendency to:
• hold beliefs that favor one’s interests (self-interest bias),
• overlook inconvenient logical connections (cognitive dissonance),
• think uncritically (susceptibility to misinformation), and
• have institutions incapable of long-term collective pursuits.
Need strategies that motivate successful national and global action, in spite of these characteristics of individuals and society – exercise in “prediction,” not wishful thinking.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 8Feb/2012
Details: emissions, concentrations,
temperatures, impacts to 2100 +
Level CO2 (ppm) CO2 e (ppm) Likely tempΔ
Pre-1750 280 ? 0 C
2010 level 390 460 2.2 C (1.2 in 2010)
critical level 350 450 2 C
Stern target 450 550 -> 3 C?
Realistically? 550 650 -> 3 C + ?
Sources: IPCC, Energy Modeling Forum, Anderson & Bows, 2009
Source of confusionCO2 e = CO2 + methane + nitrous oxide + others
current path ≈700 ≈800 4 – 6 C
Scientists contemplate 4C beyond 2100
www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
350.org
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 9Feb/2012
Past sea level vs temperature
Source: Archer
Long-term effect
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 10Feb/2012
Political promises & implications
Political leaders promise at Copenhagen in 2009 not to allow temperature increase to exceed 2°C.
Political leaders of most rich countries promise to reduce emissions 80% by 2050. Canada (Harper) promises 65%.
But even to achieve 550 ppm CO2e, global emissions must fall at least 50% by 2050 (if rich fall 80%, poor must fall 30%).
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 11Feb/2012
Emissions trajectory for 550 CO2eemrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Falling global emissions before 2020
550 CO2e target needs 50% global drop by 2050
Source: Bowan & Ranger, 2009
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 12Feb/2012
Current world energy-CO2 path
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1850 1900 1950 2000
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
(E
J)
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Renewable
NuclearMicrochip
Steammotor
Gasolinetube
Commercial Nuclear
Television
aviation
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
CO2 emitting = 85%
CO2-free=15%
Next 50 years?
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 13Feb/2012
CO2–free energy share to achieve 550 CO2e
Source: Nakicenovic
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
15% in 201050% in 2030
80% in 2050
CO2-free energy share = biomass + other renewables + nuclear + fossil fuels with CCS
Only possible if all energy investment is CO2-free
from today
50% reduction from growing system requires 80% CO2-free globally
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 14Feb/2012
CO2-free share by sector to achieve 550 ppm
CO2e
Electricity generation - 90% CO2-free by 2050(renewables, fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage,
nuclear).
Buildings - 85% CO2-free by 2050(heat pumps, passive solar, biofuels, photovoltaics, solar hot
water)
Vehicles - 80% CO2-free by 2050(electric, biofuel, hydrogen)
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 15Feb/2012
Truth-testing our politicians:
the case of Canada
Canadian government aggressively promotes tar sands expansion, including Keystone and Gateway pipelines.
Is the government’s action consistent with its 2050 promise?
Independent research consistently says no.
E.g. MIT researchers model Canada’s 2050 target and the global path to 550 CO2e – assess implications for tar sands over 40 years.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 16Feb/2012
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Achieving 550 ppm CO2e plus Harper’s promise:
MIT study
17Feb/2012 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University
Tar sands under 50% global CO2e reduction
to 2050
2010-2050, higher cost / higher emission oil unprofitable under reduced oil demand and CO2e reduction policies (regulations or charge of $100 /tCO2 by 2020, $200 by 2035).
Investments today in tar sands production and pipelines are inconsistent with Harper’s promise to reduce emissions 65% by 2050 and with global achievement of 550 ppm CO2e.
The main reason for the demise of the oil sands industry with global CO2 policy is that the demand for oil worldwide drops substantially. … it can be met with conventional oil resources that entail less CO2 emissions in the production process.”
- Chan et al., MIT, 2010
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 18Feb/2012
Summary: obvious conclusions from
independent studies
World not on the path to 450 CO2e (=350 CO2).
World not on the path to 550 CO2e.
Canada not on a path to 65% reduction by 2050 (tar sands + pipeline investments = government not telling truth).
Canada / world locking on to path to 800 CO2e by 2100.
This path has catastrophic damages from extreme weather, disease, ecosystem destruction, sea level rise and ocean acidification – to be experienced by people who are alive today.
You, and especially your children.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 19Feb/2012
Understanding the failure to act
We’ve had past “successes” addressing environmental threats– acid emissions, smog creating emissions, ozone-depleting
emissions, lead emissions, etc.
Yet climate policy failure now approaching three decades
Do climate-altering emissions present a more difficult problem?
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 20Feb/2012
Global public good - individual initiatives of little value – need compliance enforcement mechanism
Delayed effects – must act now to prevent future impacts, but human decision-making often myopic (individual, market, politics).
Who pays - perceptions of equity aligned with self-interest (polluter pays vs equal payment per capita or GDP vs historical responsibility)
Uncertainty – complex earth-atmosphere system causes uncertainties, even though catastrophic outcome is virtually certain.
High starting costs – total transformation costs small, but high initial costs and risks to begin shift to CO2-free (renewables, CCS, nuclear)
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Specific challenges of climate issue
21Feb/2012 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University
Critical role of US
Bad luck (given global importance of US)– Election of George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (gave time
for fossil fuel and anti-government lobbies to organize and campaign)
– Delay allows opponents time to exploit flaws in human thinking in characterizing the climate risk and the costs of action
– Issue falls victim to increasingly polarized US political system
Survey question: “Do humans affect the climate by burning fossil fuels?”
1997 Yes - 52% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans2008 Yes - 76% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans2012 Today?
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 22Feb/2012
Self-serving bias and efforts to discredit
climate science & policy“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when
his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair
Exploiting anti-science bias – easier to convince people to disbelieve science when its conclusions conflict with their self-interest.
Exploiting anti-establishment bias – easier to convince people to disbelieve science by portraying IPCC as the establishment, which, conspiracy-like, forces all climate scientists to conform.
Exploiting anti-government bias – easier to convince people to resist climate policy if portrayed as excessive regulation, higher taxes, and “social engineering.”
Greenwashing campaigns – creating alternative images to the reality of GHG pollution – “clean coal,” “clean natural gas,” “ethical oil”
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 23Feb/2012
If we don’t take these characteristics into account, we will fail to motivate effective individual and political action on climate change.
Ironically, there are delusions associated both with those who don’t want to act on climate and those who do.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Response: being realistic about humans
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 24Feb/2012
Response: communicating science and riskemrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 25Feb/2012
Response: confronting the “what about the Chinese” argument
Question for high school students. Figure out how the international community achieves collective action on a public good when:
• Some countries are much richer than others• The rich countries have much higher cumulative
emissions• Poor countries want rich to pay all their costs• The rich countries can use subsidies and trade
threats to get global compliance
Always the same answer.• Rich countries go first with cutting their emissions
thus lowering the costs of CO2-free technologies and fuels
• Soon they provide subsidies and apply trade measures (if necessary) to ensure universal compliance with global effort
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 26Feb/2012
Response: confronting the “our emissions are
small” argumentCanada is responsible for 2% of global CO2 emissions.
In World War II, Canada was responsible for 2% of the Allied effort that defeated Germany and Japan.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 27Feb/2012
Question for elementary school students. What happens when your job creation strategy destroys the planet?
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Low carbon growth will be more energy-secure, cleaner, safer, quieter and more bio-diverse. Low-carbon growth is the future growth story. High-carbon growth, on the other hand, will destroy itself.
– Nicholas Stern
Economic growth has been used often to justify harm.
Response: confronting the “we need the economic
growth & jobs” argument
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 28Feb/2012
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Response: confronting the self-interest bias of fossil
fuel regions
burning fossil fuels
No use of fossil
fuels
extremely difficult
(impossible?)
fossil fuels
with CCSdifficult
CCS = carbon capture & storage
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 29Feb/2012
Response: confronting the “we don’t need climate
policy” argumentCorporate social responsibility as solution – but businesses
ultimately compete on the basis of bottom-line and fossil fuels are cheap
Green consumerism as solution – but virtually all human expenditures of income involve energy use at some stage
Energy efficiency is cheap as solution – but usually it is more expensive and inconvenient than simply burning fossil fuels
Peak oil and high energy prices as solution – but the earth’s crust has a scary plentitude of fossil fuels and humans keep innovating to find and extract more
Carbon neutrality as solution – but most carbon offsets pay people for reductions they would have made and thus don’t divert from our trajectory of rising emissions – “false sense of progress”
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 30Feb/2012
A scary plentitude of fossil fuels: Global Energy
Assessmentemrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Historical production through 2009
Production 2009
Reserves Resources Additional occurrences
[EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] Conventional oil 6 647 166.7 4 900 – 7 610 4 170 – 6 150 n.a. Unconventional oil 607 23.1 3 750 – 5 600 11 280 – 14 800 > 40 000 Conventional gas 3 467 112.7 5 000 – 7 100 7 200 – 8 900 n.a. Unconventional gas 158 12.0 20 100 – 67 100 40 200 – 121 900 > 1 000 000 Coal 7 269 152.7 17 300 – 21 000 291 000 – 435 000 n.a.
Conventional uraniumb 1 333 25.6 2 339 7 420 n.a. Unconventional uranium
n.a. 4 100 2 600 000
1
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 31Feb/2012
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Energy consumption and new devices (US data)
Steve Groves, SFU – 2009
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devices
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 32Feb/2012
Response: confronting the “climate policy can’t work”
argument
Information and subsidies do not work – 20 years of evidence.
Economists insist on emissions pricing for economic efficiency (carbon tax and/or cap-and-trade), but this is difficult politically.
Yet successful environmental policies have been mostly regulations that require phase-out of undesired technologies and fuels (acid rain, smog, lead, ozone-depleting emissions, etc.).
Design regulations (and pricing) to be efficient – e.g., BC’s carbon tax and BC’s zero-emission electricity policy.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 33Feb/2012
Response: if government won’t act
(and perhaps is lying)What is your moral duty as a citizen if independent evidence
consistently shows your government is not telling the truth and that the implications are disastrous?
Public relations / social networking campaigns / boycotts – focus on popular culture, Hollywood, etc.
Legal action – 100 US coal plants delayed or postponed in past 5 years.
Non-violent civil actions (350.org, Greenpeace, VTACC)• Sit-ins at government chambers and offices• Pickets at elected officials’ constituency offices• Blockades of fossil fuel facilities – coal plants, oil pipelines, oil
sands• Blockades of downtown parking lots to hinder high-emission
vehicles
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 34Feb/2012
Response: civil action if necessary – 350.org,
Washington, 2011emrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group