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Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight Future predications for CCS based on
GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE
Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System
Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser
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Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)
(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)
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Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)
(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)
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Phytoplankton Comparison (1998-‐2007)SeaWiFS ChlorophyllModeled Chlorophyll
SeaWiFS Phytoplankton CarbonModeled Phytoplankton Carbon
Xiu & Chai
JGR,2012
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IOPs Comparison (1998-‐2007)SeaWiFS (QAA) aph (443 nm)Modeled aph (440 nm)
SeaWiFS (QAA) acdom+det (412 nm)Modeled acdom+det (410 nm)
SeaWiFS (QAA) bbp (555 nm)Modeled bbp (550 nm)
Xiu & Chai 2012, JGR
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January 2015
along ch
annel
12
34
periodic along-
40 km along-channel
80 km cross-channel
Idealized ROMS 3D Channel Geometry and
Configuration
Example simulations for an idealized upwelling-
downwelling
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CoSiNE-‐Op?cs-‐EcoLight
ROMS-‐CoSiNE
Op?cal Module
Chl, CDOM,detritus
Kpar
Inherent Op?cal Proper?es (IOPs)
Satellite data QAA, GSM….
IOPs Comparison
Seawater op?cal proper?es
Photo-‐Acclima?on
Carbon Nitrogen
Chlorophyll
ComparisonBiological
Radia?ve Transfer Model (EcoLight)
PAR (400 nm to 700 nm) Short Wave Radia?on (400 to 1000)
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CoSiNE-‐Op?cs-‐EcoLight
ROMS-‐CoSiNE
Op?cal Module
Chl, CDOM,detritus
Kpar
Inherent Op?cal Proper?es (IOPs)
Satellite data QAA, GSM….
IOPs Comparison
Seawater op?cal proper?es
Photo-‐Acclima?on
Carbon Nitrogen
Chlorophyll
ComparisonBiological
Radia?ve Transfer Model (EcoLight)
PAR (400 nm to 700 nm) Short Wave Radia?on (400 to 1000)
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Hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and biology are fully coupled via EcoLight, RTE solu<on from 400-‐1000 nm
Thermodynamics with Paulson & Simpson short wave radia?on model. Biology with analy?c PAR(z) light model. There is no feedback from biology to physics
Original ROMS-‐CoSiNE Model New ROMS-‐CoSiNE-‐EcoLight Model
Coupling Hydrodynamics, Biology, and Op8cs
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Hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and biology are fully coupled via EcoLight, RTE solu<on from 400-‐1000 nm
Thermodynamics with Paulson & Simpson short wave radia?on model. Biology with analy?c PAR(z) light model. There is no feedback from biology to physics
Original ROMS-‐CoSiNE Model New ROMS-‐CoSiNE-‐EcoLight Model
Coupling Hydrodynamics, Biology, and Op8cs
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Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight
Future predications for CCS based on GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE
Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System
Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser
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1860 - 1900
2081 - 2120
Difference
Temperature (0-200m) NO3 (0-200m) Primary Production
Rykaczewski and Dunne, GRL, 2010
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GFDL-ESM to ROMS-CoSiNE
Courtesy of Enrique Curchitser
One-way downscaling
For this talk:
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Comparing two periods (20 years) Forced with RCP 8.5 from GFDL-‐ESM2M
1990-‐2009 VS. 2030-‐2049
Difference = AVG(2030~2049) – AVG(1990~2009 )
Temperature Comparison in CCS
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Comparison of Temperature and Stratification Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)
SST Increase Stratification (N2)Enhanced
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Comparison of Nutrients and Primary Production Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)
NO3Increase
warm colors
SiO4Increase
morewarm colors
DecreaseDecrease
warmingmore
SST Increase
Primary Production
Increase
Decrease
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Comparison of Nutricline Depth (NO3 and SiO4) Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)
NO3 Nutricline SiO4 Nutricline
Nutricline become shallower in most areas, more so for silicate than nitrate
Offshore region in the north, nutricline deepens
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Plankton Biomass Comparions: (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
Small Phyto. Diatoms
Microzoo MesozooMesozoo increase more
near -‐shore
Change in opposite direction
Microzoo increase more
off-‐shore
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positive
Along shore wind
1990-‐09
Wind stress curl
1990-‐09
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
Increase near coast
more upwelling
Decrease offshore less
upwelling
Increase near coast
more upwelling
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positive
Along shore wind
1990-‐09
Wind stress curl
1990-‐09
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
Increase near coast
more upwelling
Decrease offshore less
upwelling
Increase near coast
more upwelling
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Future climate change impact on upwelling systems
Bakun et al. 2015
Bakun Hypothesis
Poleward migration of pressure systems
Enhancement of land-‐ocean
thermal contrast along the coast
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% = [AVG(2030-‐49) – AVG(1990-‐09 )] /AVG(1990-‐09 )
Vertical Nutrient Flux Calculations
change (%) W NO3 SIO4
100 m 5.6% 9.9% 24%
200 m 21.3% 5.7% 18.8%
300 m -‐4.0% 2.9% 14.8%
Changes of Vertical Velocity (W) and NO3 and SiO4 in region 2 and 3, during April-‐July
23
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Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
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Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
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Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
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Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
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Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
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Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
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Summary for future predications of CCS
• One-‐way downscaling higher resolution coastal model yield more information for regional difference
• In the central and southern coast, increase wind and wind stress curl lead to stronger upwelling; upwelled nutrients also increased due to warming and stratification in the open ocean which transport to the CCS
• Primary production increase due to more nutrients to CCS, diatoms and meso-‐zooplankton increase more near shore
• Increased eddy activity offshore along with decreased wind stress curl enhance nutrient supply to the upper ocean
• For the northern CCS, changing in wind stress curl lead to more downwelling, which leads to decrease of nutrient