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Fisheries and aquaculture
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• Importance of fisheries and aquaculture to LDCs in Pacific • Regional vulnerability assessment• Summary of effects on resources underpinning fisheries and aquaculture• Effects on plans to use resourcesEconomic developmentFood security
• Identifying the best adaptations
Outline
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Contributions to government revenue (%)1999‐2008
%
11
%
%
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
10‐25
30‐50
Source: Gillett (2009)
2‐5
<1
1‐2
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Importance of fish for food security
%
11
%
%
Annual fish consumption per person ‐ rural (kg)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
147
98
115
21
33
Animal protein 60‐94 %
Subsistencefishing 47‐86 %
Source: Bell et al. (2009)
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Vulnerability assessment
http://www.spc.int/climate‐change/fisheries/assessment/
• 88 authors • 36 institutions• Summary for policy makers
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Approach usedProjected changes to atmospheric
and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations, policies and investments needed to maintain
productivity
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How could climate change affect plans for the sector?
•Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development
• Provide sufficient fish for food security
•Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources
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Catch in 2009
• 1.75 million tonnes
• ~ USD 2.2 billion 2000
2050
Projected effects on skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
A2 emissions scenario
Effects due to:
• Increases in sea surface temperature in eastern Pacific
• Shift of prime feeding areas to the east
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West (average) A2
2035 2050 2100
~ +10% 0% ~ -20%
East (average) A2
A22035 2050 2100
+35-40% +40-45% +25-30%
Changes relative to 1980‐1999 average catch
Effects on skipjack tuna catches
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2035 (‐2 to ‐5%)
2050 (‐20%) 2100 (‐20 to ‐50%)
Today
Effects on coral reef fish catchA2 emissions scenario
Effects due to:
• Increased sea surface temperature and more frequent bleaching
• Ocean acidification• Greater runoff of nutrients due to higher rainfall
• Cyclones of greater intensity
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Effects on freshwater fish catchA2 emissions scenario2035 2050 2100
+2.5% +2.5 to +7.5%
+2.5 to +12.5%
Effects due to:
• Increased air temperature
• Higher flow rates• Increased freshwater habitat
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• Pearls
• Shrimp
• Seaweed
• Marine ornamentals
Coastal aquaculture commodities
A2 emissions scenario2035 2050 2100
Effects due to:
• Increased sea surface temperature
• Ocean acidification• Greater runoff of nutrients
• Sea‐level rise• More‐intense cyclones
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Pond aquaculture commoditiesA2 emissions scenario
Effects due to:
• Increased surface air temperature (faster growth rates in ponds)
• Higher rainfall (more places to build ponds)
2035 2050 2100• Tilapia
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ResourceWest East
2035 2050 2100 2035 2050 2100
Tuna Negligible
Coastal fisheries Negligible Negligible
Freshwater fisheries
Aquaculture
*Fish in ponds
*Other commodities
Summary of changes in production A2 emissions scenario
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How could the projected changes to tuna resources affect plans for
economic development?
• Government revenue (from licence fees)
• GDP Development of national fleetsMore domestic processing
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Increases in government revenue
%
11
%
%
Changes in revenue % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples onlyRange x‐y%
10‐25
30‐50
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
+15 +17 +10
+6 +7 +4
% GR 1999‐2008
% projected change
+0.1 -0.2 -0.52‐5
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• Kiribati and Tuvalu in east with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits!• Losses of revenue and GDP occur mainly in Solomon Islands in west where tuna makes a relatively lower contribution to economic development (due to size of economies)• Catches of tuna expected to increase in EEZs of Vanuatu and Samoa
Key points
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How should LDCs adapt?
• To reduce the threats
• To harness the opportunities
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Adaptation decision framework
Lose‐Lose
X X
Lose‐Win
X
Win‐Win
x
X
Long‐term Loss Long‐term Gain
Near‐term
Gain
Near‐term
Loss
Addresses climate changeAd
dresses p
resent driv
ers
After Grafton (2010)
Win‐Lose
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Adaptations (economic development)
Ask
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
S
La Niña
El Niño
Source: P. Lehodey
Vessel owners fishing in PNA waters can purchase and trade fishing days depending on the location of the tuna
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
• Skipjack tuna move 2000‐3000 km along the equatorial Pacific , depending on ENSO events
• The vessel day effort management scheme allows the fleet to follow the fish and ensures that all PNA countries still receive some benefits
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Ask
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
S
Skipjack tuna
2050 A2
2100 A2
La Niña
El Niño
Source: P. Lehodey
VDS has potential to be modified regularly to accommodate movement of tuna to the east
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations (economic development)
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Energy audits of industrial fishing vessels
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
• Addresses likelihood of near‐term rises in fuel costs
•Will assist national fleets from PNG and Solomon Islands that may have to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries
Adaptations (economic development)
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Adaptations to supply canneries in Solomon Islands
• Maintain/develop ‘Economic Partnership Agreement’with the EU (global sourcing provisions)• Reduce access of distant water fishing nations to the EEZ to provide more fish for national vessels • Require distant water fishing nations operating with their EEZ to land some of the catch for use by local canneries; • Enhance existing arrangements for the national fleet to fish in other EEZs
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Adaptations (economic development)
Maximise economic benefits from transhipping
• Provide wharf space for repair of nets• Sell internet services to fleets• Supply fresh vegetables • Establish machine shops to make simple repairs• Provide shipping agent services
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
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How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security?
• Plans are to provide 35 kg of fish per person per year as populations grow
• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg
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Coastal fish available
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Effects of popn. growth and climate change on availability of coastal fish for food security
Effects of population growth Additional effects of reduced coastal fisheries production due to the A2 emissions scenario
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Gap in fish needed for food security
LDCGap in fish per person /year (kg)2035 2050 2100
P CC P CC P CCSolomon Islands 7 7 12 15 21 24
Samoa 5 6 6 11 10 16
Vanuatu 25 25 27 28 29 30
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Where will the fish come from?
• By increasing access of coastal communities to tuna
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Only tuna can fill the gap
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)
24%
46%
64%
11% 61%
43%
27%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2035 (33,947 t)
2050 (41,345 t)
2100 (68,910 t)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Solomon Islands
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Only tuna can fill the gap
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Samoa
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Only tuna can fill the gap
Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
Vanuatu
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Adaptations (food security)
Restore and sustain fisheries and their habitats
Ask
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐LQua
ntity
of fish/ha
bitat
Qua
ntity
of fish/ha
bitat
Time
Well‐managed fisheries
Fish needed by growing population
Fish needed by growing population
Fish available from coastal stocks
Fish available from coastal stocks
Poorly‐managed fisheries
Gap in supply of fish to be filled
Time
Fish available from stocks
Fish available from stocks
Fish habitat
Fish habitat
a)
b)
Key actions:
• FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries
• Ecosystem Approach Fisheries Management
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Adaptations (food security)
Increase access to tuna for subsistence fishers with low‐cost, inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
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Adaptations (food security)
Store tuna and bycatch from industrial fleets and distribute to urban areas
L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐L
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Adaptations (food security)L‐W
W‐W
L‐L
W‐LDevelop pond aquaculture
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SummaryEconomic development• Kiribati and Tuvalu gain, Solomon Islands has losses but effects on GDP are small, Vanuatu and Samoa have potential to gain
Food security• Effects of population growth over‐ride effects of climate change
• Contribution of coastal fisheries will decrease, but gap can be filled mainly by tuna• Pond aquaculture favoured by climate change
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SummaryAdaptations• Win‐win adaptations available for economic development and food security• Lose‐win adaptations need to be implemented for coastal fisheries to reduce impacts of short‐term drivers and build resilience to climate change
A strategic regional investment• Improved tuna modelling!
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Many
Acknowledgements