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Five Years of SAS:The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
Ephraim Feig, Ph.D
CTO & CMO, Kintera, Inc.
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The technology is good
The technology will get better
Marketing and Biz-Dev will determine the winners
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SAS: Shift the Risk
Shift the Risk-Time Distribution
SAS XAS
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XAS Examples
• Rolls-Royce airplane engines
• Car leases1999 37%2001 33%2002 23%2003 20%2004 21%2005 22%
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SAS is a natural evolution of consolidation
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SAS is accelerating the adoption of SOA and Web Services
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ASP Industry Directory
Companies (1711) Products (172)
http://linksmanager.com/aspnews/
2003
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ASP Industry Directory
Companies (1745) Products (210)
http://linksmanager.com/aspnews/
Up 33 Up 38
2004
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ASP Industry Directory
Companies (1814) Products (233)
http://linksmanager.com/aspnews/
Up 69 Up 23
2005
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2004
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Trends 1: CRM
• 1999: Siebel deployment was typically a $1M ordeal
• 2001: Salesforce.com hosted CRM applications– Standard edition for $65 per user per month
• $7,800 a year for 10 users
– Enterprise edition for $125 per user per year• $30,000 a year for 20 users2003
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CRM (Cont.)
• 2002: Salesforce.com Team Edition– Slightly less functional– Only up to 5 users– $995 a year, fully hosted
2003
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Salesforce.com
• IPO, June 23, 2004
• Pricing unchanged
• 2/10/2004: “1,000 developers are using sforce with about 10 percent of all traffic to Salesforce.com coming from API calls.”– http://www.eweek.com/print_article/0,1761,a=118827,00.asp
2004
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CRM as a Service
• Core is becoming a commodity• Configuration management is limited
– Adds complexity to everyone• CustomForce
• ROI for very large solutions may not be competitive– Shift complexity to technical experts
• SForce
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Some Perspective
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Disruptive Technologies
Demand
Supply / Competition
Cost / Price
Clayton ChristensenThe Innovator’s Dilemma?
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Disruptive Technologies
Disruptive TechnologyDisplaced / potentially displaced
technologysteam engines and internal-combustion engines
horses and humans (for powering machines)
automobiles horses (for transport)Hydraulic excavators Cable-operated excavatorsmini steel mills vertically integrated Steel millsminicomputers mainframes
Container ships and containerization "Break cargo" ships and stevedoresdesktop publishing traditional publishing
digital photography
originally, instant photography, now increasingly all chemical photography
personal computers minicomputers, workstations
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Not all disruptions come from the bottom
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Disruptive Technologies
• Christensen talks about tsunamis– Revolutionary
• Disruptions can also be ripples and waves – Evolutionary
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Disruptive Technologies• Tsunamis
– Optimizing Compiler– PC– Internet
• Ripples and Waves– OOP– IDEs– SOA & Web Services
• Work Flow Engines• Biz Talk• Active Movie (Microsoft, 1996)
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Disruptive Stimuli
• External Intervention
– Standards
– Government regulations
– Supply Chain requirements
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Technology Adoption Curve
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Disruptive Technologies
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Disruptive Technologies
Demand
Supply / Competition
Cost / Price
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Salesforce.com
• Pressured to move beyond salesforce automation– Contact Center– Marketing Automation– Analytics– Sforce– Customization via configuration
2005
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IBM's Growth Engine Sputters
• Customers abandoning or changing deals– JP Morgan Chase– Cable & Wireless– U. Penn– Invensys– Equifax renegotiated
• Customers switching service providers– Piper Jaffray Unisys– Daimler Chrysler EDS– TUIUK Wipro– Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide HP– Deutsche Bank adds Accenture
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Not all is bleak for SAS
• Aggressive growth in SMB
• And ….
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SOX is the new Y2K
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“X is the new Y”is part of the modern lexicon
Let’s measure this audience’s HCI (Hip Culture Index)
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SOX is the new Y2K
• “Pink is the new …
… Red,” – Jossie and the Pussycats, 2001
• “Twelve is the new …
… Eleven,” – Ocean’s Twelve, 2004
• “Random is the new …
… Order,” – iPod Shuffle
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Sarbanes-Oxley
• “Compliance costs average large company $7.8 million, 70,000 man hours, and countless headaches.”
• It will only grow before relaxing to a healthy level.
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Sarbanes-Oxley
• The new Y2K– $6.1 Billion (AMR Research)
• Bitpipe lists 58 SOX compliance companies – HP: OpenView Compliance & SOA Managers– Computer Associates: Unicenter ServicePlus– EMC: Documentum Compliance Manager– IBM: Risk and Compliance Framework– Oracle: Compliance Architecture
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SOX requires identity and access infrastructure that can both control and validate user-machine interactions as well as SOA-based machine-machine interactions.
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SOA as COA
Compliance Oriented Architectures
RedMonk
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Access control, analytics, archive/backup, auditing, collaboration, conflict resolution, destruction, disposition management, indexing, information integration, monitoring, notarization, policy engine, process registry, retention, retrieval, tagging, version control and workflow.
SERVICES COMMON TO COMPLIANCE
www.searchwebservices.com
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Conclusion
• Enormous challenges– Complexity vs. Commoditization– On demand requirements– Competition
• Enormous opportunities– SOA and Web Services– Evolving regulations– Growing pool of talent