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FOREIGN POLICY PAPERS
FLEXIBLE EXPANSION
NATO Enlargement in an Era of Austerity and Uncertainty
MARK SIMAKOVSKY
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2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
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Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
About the Asmus Policy Entrepreneurs Fellowship
Tis paper is the nal product o the authors Asmus Policy Entrepreneurs Fellowship. Te German Marshall Fund o theUnited States launched this program in 2011 to honor Ronald D. Asmus, GMF Brussels oce executive director and direc-
tor o strategic planning. Asmus, a renowned policy entrepreneur who dedicated his lie to the principle o reedom, passed
away on April 30, 2011.
Asmus Fellows must be U.S. or European citizens under the age o 40. Te ellowship enables them to pursue a project that
they believe will address an important oreign or economic policy issue and will advance transatlantic cooperation. Over the
course o the year, Asmus Fellows will utilize existing GMF activities and networks to advance their policy questions and to
rame policy alternatives beore summarizing their results by the years end. More inormation can be ound at http://www.
gmus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-ellowship/
About GMF
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and
global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-
tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,
by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-
cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-prot organization through a gif rom Germany as a permanent memorial to
Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in
Washington, DC, GMF has oces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also has
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On the cover: Olga_Stanis
http://www.gmfus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-fellowship/http://www.gmfus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-fellowship/http://www.gmfus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-fellowship/http://www.gmfus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-fellowship/http://www.gmfus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-fellowship/http://www.gmfus.org/programs/tli/asmus-policy-entrepreneurs-fellowship/ -
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Flexible Expansion
NATO Enlargement in an Era of Austerity and Uncertainty
Foreign Policy Papers
July 2013
B Mk Skvk
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Flexible Expansion 1
Introduction
1
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
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Candidate countries
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Flexible Expansion 3
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Flexible Expansion 5
The skeptics felt NA
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The Impasse of Bucharest
2
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
Any public effort to
anage divisions within
NATO on enlargement
can be counter-
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Flexible Expansion 7
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Flexible Expansion 9
There is a real likel
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
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The transatlantic
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only institutional, but
personal.
-
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Flexible Expansion 11
Many of the countr
on Europes periph
remain more difficu
reform, more corru
more authoritarian
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their predecessorswho achieved earlie
admission to NATO
the EU.
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Flexible Expansion 13
NATO should
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gains, prevents roll
in Europe, and plan
the seeds of furtheenlargement.
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A Flexible Enlargement
Strategy for the Future4
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
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Step 1 - Consolidate Gains Made
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made in Europe will
volve shoring up NATO
defense capabilities,
finishing the job of
expansion into the
Balkans, and adjustingNATO partnership
mechanisms.
http://www.stripes.com/reporters/John_Vandiver?author=John_Vandiverhttp://www.stripes.com/reporters/John_Vandiver?author=John_Vandiver -
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Flexible Expansion 15
A solution to the cu
status quo would b
depoliticize the MA
debate and divorce
political objectives
the technical reform
being undertaken bMAP and ANP coun
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
In an era of fiscal
austerity and rising
threats, allies need to
old potential members
to a higher standard
an their predecessors.
Policy 4
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h hh
h h . NATO
h , jv,
jv h
. C h h h h h, NATO h
v
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h vw , wh Uk
G wk k h jv .
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wh , v h - vw h
h q
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wk wh
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h
GDP . I , h
NATO h v
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q.7 Ev w h h
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Step 2 - Prevent RollbackPolicy 5
Pv k h
w q h v
7 Wz, Rh. G Ih: NATO S, C- G C Gw. World Politics Review, F. ,
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Flexible Expansion 17
k k hv h h -. Th
h EU w
E . NATO v
w vhw h
h EU Nhh P
(ENP), whh h h
h
.
F h EU v
v h W ,
, , h EU NATO w hz h
wh h . S
NATO S D h
EU P Sh v
, NATO
h EU h v
h .8 S
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NATO/EU D M ,
NATO vw hw NATO
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h EU Nhh P, EU/NATO Ch Mh
.
Th EU h
k h ENP w v h
k h h v h
h v. ENP h
U.S. , h U S
v h M Ch
A E S C
h ENP . Ahh
w k h U.S. C v h EU, h ESC
w w h U.S.
wh E .
8 Ch S D NATO. M ,
F whh j h
h . NATO h h
EU h, wh
h h
h -
hv EU . I
, h h
-v. EU h h k
h h
EU h, k S Mv. F
Uk G, hwv, EU
h k vw v
NATO h, whh k q v
.
Policy 6
I U.S. h
, w w
h v h
. Nw k P, h B ,
R h hk
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h k v h E Ph k h
W T w w F
G h E
wh R. Th B
B hv v
wh k G
h v h
v. Th w kw wh
k h
W . Nw h
h NATO E C
G E C G Sh
h h ,
h Nw F C h v
k G.
For the EU to be mo
effective and for
partners to receive
full benefit of West
economic, political,
security assistance
the EU and NATO wneed to harmonize
engagement beyon
what has been don
before.
-
7/28/2019 Flexible Expansion: NATO Enlargement in an Era of Austerity and Uncertainty
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
Ow G w, h wh R, h
Bh, w k h k
h wh
h . G k k
, h
w E h v h EU
h . A Bh h hw, w
NATO h EU
h Bk Bk S wh G
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Bk h
Uk h EU.
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.
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h V . Gh w h G w z-
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D M Vk Rh h
wh , h G w
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G NATO w
h h
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h h h
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Th U S h k hv ,
wh h G
hw v NATO E vv .
G h ,
z wh
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v. R h G
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Step 3 - Plant Seeds for the FuturePolicy 7
A z
h . E
v , h,
w k, ,
h wh h
v. A
Uk G
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whh w h w
E .
Th NATO h
O D P NATO
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wh w NATO
Tk h h
R. N NATO
h
w h
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w wh ,
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A N P q.
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k hw k v
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Germany cannot be
seen as the obstacle,
but as an underutilized
partner.
-
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Flexible Expansion 19
v G . Th v G v h h v
h B , wh R
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R ,
G h 995 E S
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D
v h , G
wh R v Sh O
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G v , ,
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A
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h, G w
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vw whh h G w k
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h h . I h ,
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h v h G hh .
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NATO h hv h h
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k
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h w v.
Wh h w , k
whh h W h w G,
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Ch S D NATO. M , Sh, G. G M M. Weekly Standard.Mh 5,
Georgias decision
respond with force
Russias provocatio
in South Ossetia m
allies question Geo
trustworthiness
as a partner andcommitment to
peacefully resolving
territorial and ethni
disputes.
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
k NATO h h wW , ,
q. NATO
h EU k -
G,
whh h. J
k w W G
vwh P
Skhv, h w h
v h h h Skhv,
vz h h
h v h
w v.
NATO, h EU, h U S
G h .
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h NATO
, R h
G NATO h. I R
j G h, h w k
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, NATO h
R v G h,
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h v G
Mw w
R z .
NATO h EU hz
h R
Akhz Sh O,
.
Policy 8
N
wh wh R. Wh h
, NATO
v h h
wh R. A , h
NATO-R C h v
. Ahh NATO h hv v
h NATO-R h, h NATO-R
C w h
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w
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v h .
NATO w v R
j h k
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h v h 99
h w v v NATO .
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NATO
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h NATO w h wh,
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w
R, h
C S C E FA. Hk 975
Without engaging
Russia in a long-term
strategic framework
that embeds it into
Euro-Atlantic security,
there will be no hope
of securing andstrengthening the
countries on Russias
borders.
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Flexible Expansion 21
h.
P h w vv -P R, whh h
h k R
vw h W.
Policy 9
P h h vv
NATO h wh Sw F
h . Mh h h
h w , h
, h ,
w
NATO E .Th w h z N-
B w w NATO h
A . Ahh
h k NATO h h
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Skh h
h. Th-w
h h w v
Sw j NATO,
v h w .4
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-.
A v h Swh Fh
h
v NATO
v h NATO
Ah L.
Policy 10
Ph h
vv h w h U S z h
wh E, v E
S, G. The NATO Enlargement Debate. (P998)4 B, Dv. Sw Sw NATO, Foreign Policy,M 7, .
h E, k h .
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hv h w h
, U.S.
h v
h . Th U S h
NATO ,
h, w,
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w, h
q.
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v v
NATO v
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Iv Ph (T-TIP) wh h EU. Th
z h h U.S.-EU
h h w ,
-h
The United States
remains the most
trusted partner for
NATO aspirants, as
its moral authority,
power, and experie
on enlargement areunparalleled.
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
v , h . Th T-TIP
h w v
v,
j, wh h h A. N
, w v
h
NATO . A
E k h
wk - E. Th U
S E h w-
h h v h
.
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Flexible Expansion 23
Th NATO Ch S w h h hv
h w v .
L , h U S wh
h S w : h
NATO Ah,
h wk A ,
h NATO h
h . U.S. wh h
S w : NATO .
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h Ch S w U.S.S S H C -S
k: I v h h h
h .5
C h v w
wh h k whh
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h v h h
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E.
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q ,
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vh, k
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h h h w
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Th h NATO S 4
h O NATO S
6 h U S
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. NATO h h vw
h h h S C,
h h
4 6 S wh v,
wh v
5 Ph, K. C A NATO O- M-h P, A F P Sv. M ,
E. A hk whE , wh E w ,
wh E h v h .
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h w
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E.
A h
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k
- h ,
NATO h G F
h 6 S. C
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h hv .
J h h h -
99 B B
, NATO h v
h h
Sw, F, M, M
v h 6 S. Th w
h h h
wh S, B, Uk, G,
v h NATO-R C
v wh R.
Th w z
. G Uk
, h A h
w h .
I h NATO
G Uk - ,
Conclusion
5
There is a need to
break out of the cu
dysfunctional statu
on enlargement.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
jv. Th S, whh h
NATO h
w h h Kv
NATO Kv
.
Th h W
h h U S
h h h T
. Lk E
k h h U S
h v v A. A wk E
E h w
h . P O
, h
v h U
S w E. Ahh h j h h h
h U.S. S w
NATO , NATO
h
R D .
Th h h U S
hw h h h
h hv v h h
NATO, h EU,
E h
w h W v E. F E h, h, w h v
h E . Th
h , h q whh h
h
w h E wh, ,
.
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O F F I C E S
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