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Economic costs of floods in Pakistan
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Final Research ReportPakistan Economy
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0 9 1 1 1 1 4 SHEIKH Mir shahnawaz [email protected]
Student No. LAST NAME (in CAPS) First, Other Name/s Email Address
0 9 1 1 1 6 3 SHAIKH Bilawal Murtaza [email protected]
Student No. LAST NAME (in CAPS) First, Other Name/s Email Address
0 9 1 1 2 0 9 MANGNEJO Sadam Hussain [email protected]
Student No. LAST NAME (in CAPS) First, Other Name/s Email Address
0 9 1 1 2 1 0 RAHOOJO Waqar Ali [email protected]
PAKISTAN ECONOMY RESEARCH REPORT
ONECONOMIC COSTS OF FLOODS IN PAKISTAN
SUBMITTED TO
MADAM ZAINAB DAR
SUBMITTED BY
CREATIVES
SEMESTERBBA-VII(B)
DATE OF SUBMISSION18TH DEC 2012
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Acknowledgement
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We are grateful to our teacher Madam Zainab Dar for teaching us
Pakistan Economy. Her versatile knowledge in this field and unique
teaching style has developed our knowledge and cleared many
Economic concepts in relevance to Pakistan.
We are more grateful to Madam for assigning this report, which has
further helped us in evaluating many interrelated dimensions of
economy.
Finally we bestow our thanks to all who have directly or indirectly
supported us with their assistance and guidance to compose this
report and accomplish broader vision to visualize things in Pakistan
Economy.
THANKING YOU
CREATIVES
Executive Summary
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The main purpose of this report is to highlight the change management concepts
in relevance to the Pakistan Tobacco company and to know what factors are
responsible for change, along with their impacts and implementation. This Project
includes the history, introduction of PTC and the change management concepts
along with the reasons and after affects of Change in the company
The purpose of this project plan is to:
states the more important information in the report
the purpose, method, reason for the report
the findings, conclusions, decisions, recommendations
all major generalizations or assumptions of the report
It is the intention of this change management plan to ensure that the readers
have understood clearly about the change concepts and their relation to Pakistan
Tobacco Company.
Economic costs of floods in pakistan
Purpose StatementThe purpose of this research is to study the effects of social integration on migration
intentions with the event of a disaster as the intervening variable. This study will look atthe ways that social integration assists in creating community cohesion and residential
satisfaction, mediating a desire to make a residential move following a disaster event.
This research is important because it calls into question the relationship of socialintegration as a mediating factor in decisions to remain in a disaster-affected community
or to choose to leave. This is a question relevant to demographers who look at migration
patterns and causes which contribute to residential moves. It will also contribute to the
growing theories of social integration and social capital.
Fllods have had a major impact on the eonomy of any country, these are devastataingand are hamrfull, flood are Natural disasters which have over al anegative impactcommunities around the world. Whether they are in the form
of rain flooding, monsoon flooding or some other flooding they will affect communities
economy and the social structure
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Floods in Pakistan
In 63 years, Pakistan never experienced such ferocious floods as it saw during thisAugust 2010. The impact on the
life, property and livestock has been devastating. The damages caused have put thecountry to a state that matake tens of years to recoup. More than 1,500 people have died ;1,000 in KhyberPakhtunkhwa only. Hundreds ovillages have been swept away in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Balochistan whileSindh which had little in itwaterways for a number of years, is now bracing itself for a major deluge. Standingcrops, animal farms and infrastructures have also been damaged badly. Livestock, one of the major source of incomefor rural families, has beeaffected. Millions of people are seeking refuge in tents made of plastic and sheets
Pakistan had been suffering from three serious shocks even before the recent floods
caused devastation to human lives, property, infrastructure and social services in the
country
The floods have displaced 20 million people, damaged or destroyed more than one
million houses, infrastructure, and washed away standing crops from 10 percent of the
cultivable area. The losses of livestock, poultry, etc. which provide cash incomes to the
poor are quite substantial. According to the UN observers, the 2010 Floods in Pakistan
have caused more devastation than the combined effects of Asian Tsunami, 2005
earthquake in Kashmir and the recent Haiti earthquake. The loss of life has indeed
been contained but the loss to property and incomes have been considerably higher.
Internal displacement of people has been on a massive scale. Preliminary estimate of
flood damages prepared by the World Bank and ADB amount to about $ 10 billion.
Researchers at Ball State University and Tennessee State University have put the
damage to the infra-structure, buildings, contents and agricultural assets between $5.1
7.1 billion.
The economic performance before the floods was recording some modest
improvement. Growth was picking up and was estimated to reach 4.5 percent in 2010-
11. Headline inflation was forecast at 11.5 percent lower than the previous year. Official
reserves had increased and the nominal exchange rate remained stable as the current
account deficit was narrowing. Higher inflows of workers remittances, rising export
earnings and fall in import prices and volume all contributed to this favorable outcome.
However, the outlook for the fiscal balances remained bleak. Escalating Defense
expenditures, lower tax revenues, higher spending by the Provincial Governments and
shortfall in Coalition Support Fund reimbursements and other foreign financing had
widened the fiscal deficit. This larger deficit was financed by the borrowings from the
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State Bank of Pakistan and the banking system which fed into higher inflationary
expectations and also crowded out private sector credit. According to the IMF, the
program deficit target would have been missed by a margin of 1.7 percent of GDP. The
repeated postponements of introduction of Reformed GST (RGST) had also raised
doubts about the achievement of the agreed tax revenue targets. It is not obvious
whether the Government has attained internal political consensus and the Federal
Board of Revenue has developed the requisite capacity to launch this tax soon.
Reforms in the power sector that were expected to plug in the leakages in the collection
of electricity tariffs and reduce the budgetary subsidies are also not proceeding at the
desired pace.
What has been the impact of the floods on the economy? The recent IMF report
has concluded that the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply. The agricultural
sector has been hit hard and the loss of output would reduce GDP by over 2 percent.
These output losses combined with disruption in supply chains arising from damage to
infrastructure have pushed up the prices of food, vegetables and fruits. Floods had also
disrupted international trade with the supplies of exports and imports held up and fuel
could not be delivered to power plants. Inflationary pressures will thus intensify and
inflation rate may rise to about 14 percent. Public finances are likely to be affected with
lower revenue collections, higher outlays for needed humanitarian assistance and
continued needs of the defense services in fighting the Taliban and consolidating their
hold on the areas from where they have expelled these extremist elements. The
current economic scenario for 2010/11 therefore looks bleak as GDP growth would be
only 2.8 percent, inflation 13.5 -14 percent, current account deficit 3.1 percent and fiscal
deficit nobody knows for sure where it will end up.
A timely and appropriate response of the domestic and international community
to this calamity can not only contain and mitigate the risks to the economy but also turn
it into an opportunity for economic revival. This goal is achievable if the post-relief
rehabilitation and reconstruction activities are carried out in a framework of burden
sharing and not business-as-usual.
The stimulus to kick start the economy in the post-flood relief period can be
provided in two ways. First, the immediate task would be to facilitate the return ofapproximately four million families to their respective habitats and enable their
transition from dependence on relief goods to restoration of livelihoods. Cash grants,
microfinance loans, the supply of seeds, fertilizers, bullocks, implements and housing
material should be provided to them before the sowing season starts. Microfinance
banks and Microfinance Institutions (MFBs and MFIs), Pakistan Poverty Alleviation
Fund and Zarai Taraqati Bank can provide the financing for these purposes. MFBs and
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MFIs should be given lines of credit by the government, banks and international donors
for channeling micro loans to the poor for agriculture, housing and micro businesses.
Agricultural production can in this way bounce back to higher levels as some of the
areas that do not receive water normally would also come under cultivation this year
and water stressed lands would be able to retain higher moisture content because of
floods. Rural incomes will rise as a result of higher output and higher producer prices
and create demand for consumer goods that will help the domestic manufacturing
industry. Second, the physical rehabilitation and reconstruction work including housing
can be financed from allocations from the Benazir Income Support Program, funds at
the parliamentarians disposal, the Peoples Work Program, Bait ul Mal and Zakat and
provincial development budgets. These public sector funds should be supplemented by
corporate sector, NGOs, Civil Society groups, wealthy individuals, philanthropists and
expatriates. These groups may operate in specific areas or be assigned specific tasks
without being asked to donate cash contributions. Similarly, the international donor
community can undertake projects of their choice in a particular district directly orthrough local organizations. The spending generated by these large, medium and small
projects in the flood affected areas would have a multiplier effect on the economy
through employment, construction, cement, steel, paints and chemicals, wooden
products and more than 30 industries that will be involved.
The distress caused by this tragedy can thus be converted into a stimulus for the
economy if there is adequate effort to mobilize resources nationally and internationally,
proper planning, coordination at various levels, assignment and delineation of
responsibilities among different players, and involvement of the public, private and non-
governmental sectors in the implementation of the projects and the activities.
intangible impacts(relating to non-material and/or emotional losses) registered markedly higher values
than tangible impacts (relating to material losses), and immediate impacts weregenerally higher than lasting impacts. Intangible immediate impacts (overall score
of 1.81) included the stress of the flood itself, the anxiety ofbeing out of ones home,
the discomfort ofliving in temporary accommodation and the time and effort in
dealing with insurers and builders to return home as soon as possible. Intangible
lasting impacts (which focus on the time and effort to return to a normal life) were
more sustained and includedfear of future flooding,strains within the family itselfand
loss of sentimental/irreplaceable items.
Health2.7 Flooding impacts directly on both physical and psychological health, with astrong interaction between the two. The most extensive recent study, global in scope,
is the Tyndall CentresFloods health and climate change: a strategic review (Few et
al., 2004; summarised in Ahern et al., 2005). In this work, which includes studies in
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England, Australia and the USA, the health impacts of flooding are closely related to
age and pre-existing health (RPA, 2005).
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1. Economy
Economic loss
The flooding in Jiangxi of China in 1998 caused great damage. The economic loss
was HK$156 billion, 400 buildings surrounding the lake were inundated, leaving more
than 1 million people homeless.
Resources used in reconstruction
After flooding, government has to input many resources for aiding or
reconstruction, e.g., police force, fire control, aid worker, resources used for resisting
flood, etc. This also brings loss to society.
2. Environment
Traffic
Flooding will lead to the damages of roads, collapse of bridges or traffic
congestion, which may affect the daily operation.
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Damaging the farmland
Flooding brings too much water which will cause damage to farmland.
3. Human Beings
People died and lose their homes
Flooding will cause death and injuries. In year 1998, 0.23 billion of people were
affected in the flooding of Xian, including 3 thousands people dead, 1 million of people
lost their homes. In 1996, the monsoon flood in India affected more than five million
people in the northern and eastern part of the country. Severe floods have also killed
some 200 people in India and Bangladesh and left millions homeless and starvation.
4. Disease
Flooding usually brings infectious diseases, e.g. military fever, pneumonic plague,
dermatopathia, dysentery, common cold (type A), breakbone fever, etc. And for those
areas which have no electric supply due to flooding, food poisoning may occur as foodmay not be properly frozen.
objective
analysis of the impact of flood on economy
to explore the impact of flood of social living
to provide propoer recoomendation for handling flood situation
research questions
How does the flood impacts on the economy
How is social living being effected by floods
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What are the economic costs of floods.
Recoomendianton
PAKISTANS ECONOMY AND THE IMPACT OF FLOOD
ISHRAT HUSAIN