Download - Forecasting
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464748495051
-A positive tracking signal (TS) implies that the demand is gher than the forecasts- Because the TS is not close to 0, the forecasting method is flawed.-No trend is observed and also no seasonality is observed. So the forecasting method used is Exponential Smoothing-The forecast for the first week is assumed to be equal to the demand- The value of smoothing constant is taken to be 0.5-For week 2, it is assumed that the demand in week 2 will be equal to the demand in week 1.
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Orders(Actual) Forecast Difference Mod of Difference Square of Diff.220 220 220 48400100 220 -120 120 14400190 160 30 30 900240 175 65 65 4225480 208 273 273 74256470 344 126 126 15939320 407 -87 87 7547510 363 147 147 21481330 437 -107 107 11389
60 383 -323 323 104561290 222 68 68 4668850 256 594 594 353026160 553 -393 393 154386
90 356 -266 266 7100130 223 -193 193 37338
180 127 53 53 2850780 153 627 627 392743100 467 -367 367 134435430 283 147 147 21513
80 357 -277 277 76543150 218 -68 68 4669190 184 6 6 34520 187 333 333 110834180 354 -174 174 30117140 267 -127 127 16071300 203 97 97 9334290 252 38 38 1467650 271 379 379 143757180 460 -280 280 78637
80 320 -240 240 5770260 200 -140 140 19630
600 130 470 470 220850350 365 -15 15 226160 358 -198 198 39011110 259 -149 149 22129320 184 136 136 18393890 252 638 638 406803820 571 249 249 61954210 696 -486 486 235756305 453 -148 148 21837280 379 -99 99 9779350 329 21 21 423400 340 60 60 3633150 370 -220 220 48339300 260 40 40 1606
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120 280 -160 160 25589380 200 180 180 32406
20 290 -270 270 72895400 155 245 245 60027250 277 -27 27 756280 264 16 16 264
324 10190 3306529MAD 200
MSE 64833.908385467MAPETS
-A positive tracking signal (TS) implies that the demand is gher than the forecasts- Because the TS is not close to 0, the forecasting method is flawed.-No trend is observed and also no seasonality is observed. So the forecasting method used is Exponential Smoothing-The forecast for the first week is assumed to be equal to the demand- The value of smoothing constant is taken to be 0.5-For week 2, it is assumed that the demand in week 2 will be equal to the demand in week 1.
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1.00 alpha 0.51.200.160.270.570.270.270.290.325.390.240.702.462.966.440.300.803.670.343.460.460.030.640.960.910.320.130.581.563.002.340.780.041.231.350.420.720.302.310.480.350.060.151.470.13
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1.330.47
13.500.610.110.06
6793%
133%1.6203463794
-A positive tracking signal (TS) implies that the demand is gher than the forecasts- Because the TS is not close to 0, the forecasting method is flawed.-No trend is observed and also no seasonality is observed. So the forecasting method used is Exponential Smoothing-The forecast for the first week is assumed to be equal to the demand- The value of smoothing constant is taken to be 0.5-For week 2, it is assumed that the demand in week 2 will be equal to the demand in week 1.
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Exponential Smooting