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© 2009 IBM Corporation
Speaker NameSpeaker Role, Company Name
Best Practices in implementing a Rolling Forecast
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Session Objectives
In today’s session we will:
� Review the need for solidforecasting practices
� Learn about the rolling forecastphilosophy
� Discuss three best practices for implementing a rolling forecast
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„Expect the Unexpected.“David Axson
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Forecasting a critical business process in turbulent times.
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What is a forecast?
Forward Looking
Flexible
Focused on Risks & Opportunities
Fact-based
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„The end result ... is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future.“Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
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Good forecasting practices create value
CareerCareerCareerCareer
Reputation
Reputation
Reputation
Reputation
PerformancePerformancePerformancePerformance
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The traditional approach...
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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The traditional template
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Static forecasts do not provide the necessary
visibility in turbulent times.
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It shows...
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© 2009 IBM Corporation
Rolling Forecasts. An effective approach.
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What is a Rolling forecast
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
Q1 Forecast
Q2
Q3
Traditionalforecast
Q1 Forecast
Rollingforecast
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Why are rolling forecasts attractive?
� Increased visibility
� Consistent time horizon
� Less reliance on budget
� Solid baseline for new plans
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Rolling Forecasts speed up the budgeting process
Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
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Not only time is saved. Satisfaction increases.
Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
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Some elements of a successful forecast
Time Horizon & Update Frequency
Agile Models
Process Management
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Time Horizon & Update Frequency
Agile Models
Process Management
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Rolling Forecast = 12 month quartely?
No. It depends on your business!
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Match the time horizon to the rhythm of your business
Short cycles
� Consumer electronics
� Retailing
� Investment banking
� Advertising
� Cash flow
� Overtime
Long cycles
� Oil exploration
� Pharma development
� Infrastructure investment
� Plant construction
� Infrastructure investment
� Research & development
Industr
yF
unctio
n
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„Best practice companies move towards more
frequent & event-drivenupdates.“
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Time Horizon & Update Frequency
Agile Models
Process Management
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Remember this template?
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„Simplicity is the ultimate
sophistication.“Leonardo da Vinci
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Less is more! Simplify your models
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Utilize drivers – the language of business
634172 – Revenue (New Accts)
665891 – Office Supplies (Paper)
665892 – Office Supplies (Pens)
677199 – Gifts, Misc.
VS.
Opportunities
Pipeline
Number of employees
Customer Satisfaction
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Revenue?
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Time Horizon & Update Frequency
Agile Models
Process Management
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Process management is critical
We need to make a
critical decision quickly!
Wow...there are a lot of moving parts!
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New version
Update Models
Load Actuals
Distribute Models
Collect Data
Aggregate data
Report & Analyze
What-if & Optimize
SAP
HR
DW
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Decision
Making!
Management Meetings
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Critical elements of the process
� Aim for repeatability
� Measure the quality
� Set strict goals
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And measure & monitor your process
Forecast Accuracy
Cycle Time
Confidence Levels
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Summary: Some elements of a successful forecast
Time Horizon & Update Frequency
Agile Models
Process Management
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Demo goes here
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Rolling Forecasts – a silver bullet?
� No one-size-fits-all approach
� Agile models & process required
� Technology as enabler
� Forecast culture required
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Next Steps
� Analyze your processes
� Download our white papers & blueprints
� Join the Cognos Innovation Center
Web: www.ibm.com/cognos/innovation-center
Twitter: @ibmcognosicemea
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Session Summary
� The current business environment requires solid forecasting practices that the traditional approaches do not provide
� Rolling forecasts provide a proven approach for gaining better business insight in today’s volatile business climate
� IBM provides best practices and solutions for implementing a better forecasting approach