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Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather
A Day In the life of theAviation System
UnderNextGen
July 2008 Bill Leber
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The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Plan Defines A System That Can Meet Demands For The
21st Century
Trajectory-Based Operations
Performance-Based Operations and Services
Precision Navigation
Weather Integration
Network-Centric Information Sharing
Surveillance Services
Equivalent Visual Operations
Super Density Operations
Layered, Adaptive Security
Capabilities
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En Route
Transition
Terminal
Responding to the Challenges
An Outlook for the Next Decade
• Automated, high-precision operations with deconflicted RNP/RNAV routes
• Additional routes designed to increase flexibility, efficiency, and capacity
• Responsibility for problem prediction moves from controller to automation
• Controllers resolve problems with automated resolution assistance
• Problems are predicted and resolved strategically
• Routine ATC tasks are automated
• Time-based metering used to manage traffic to constrained resources
• Airspace designed to optimize service and productivity improvements
• Automation assists with sequencing, merging, and spacing
• En route flow management directives smooth transition
PERFORMANCE-BASED ATM CONCEPT
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P Time
Airborne holding, flight diversionsFlight deviationsMIT managementShutting the door on adjacent sectorRoute status
StrategicATCSCC
Tactical
TacticalATCSCC
Departure stopAPREQsESP/DSPEDCTMIT/MINIT
Impactdelays
Decision-Making Time HorizonsStrategic vs Tactical
ATCSCC ATC
-120-240-360 -45-60
ARTCC TMU
StrategicARTCC
Out In
Off On
Tower
ARTCC
Tower
+Time En-Route
TacticalARTCC
Ccfp
METAR PIREP s
NEXRAD ITWS
Airborne RADAR
CIWS
SIGMET
Outlook.. Convective SIGMET
METAR
TAF
NCWFNCWF-2
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Airspace is the Foundation to the Future
NextGenNear-term 2015-2020 NextGen Foundation Projects
• Effectively APPLY the solutions that we have available today
• EXPEDITEthe most promising and cost-effective solutions of the future
FILL THE OPERATIONAL GAP• Move from individual
RNAV/RNP routes to large scale, networked implementation
• Airspace design balancing operational, resource, security needs
• Agile and adaptive airspace structure
• Align airspace to function instead of geography
N
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Airspace Configuration Concept
Exact boundaries will depend on the equipped aircraft and traffic density
Provide flexibility where possible and structure where needed
High Altitude Airspace(Generic Airspace)
Structured/Classic Low Altitude Airspace
Automated Separation Assurance Operations Airspace (Non-exclusionary/Exclusionary)
Super Density and Metroplex Areas
Adaptable
Adaptable
Adaptable
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Adaptable Airspace• En route congestion problem • Structure and boundaries change based on
traffic demand– Near term: airspace playbook concept– Far term: completely adaptable airspace OB48 ZOB57
7ZOB66
ZOB67
D77 ZD
Existing
OB48 ZOB57
7ZOB66
ZOB67
D77 ZD
Adjusted
Research Issues• When, how much, and where to change airspace?• How much advance notice to provide to the operator?
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Restructured Airspace• New airspace categories for advanced
concepts– Automated separation operations (ground or
airborne) airspace
– Corridors-in-the-sky
– Dynamic sectors
– Larger airspace sectors where needed
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Corridors-in-the-Sky
• Design of tube networks that capture large amount of traffic and reduce extra flight distance needed
• Small number of corridors and high volume of traffic corridors
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Scenario 1Preplanning
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Observation
Virtual 4D Weather Cube
15-60mins
Hazard
1 – 24 hrs
Virtual4D
Weather Cube
Aviation weather information
in 3 dimensions( latitude/longitude/height)
4th
dimensiontime
0 – 15 mins
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Flying LGA to ORD in Weather
CIWS DomainAir Traffic 09/12/02 1000 UTC – 09/13/02 1000 UTC
# of aircraft
Common Weather Situation “No routes available”
Fraction of
Normal Sector
Capacity
LGA
ORD
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Adaptive ATM
CIWS DomainAir Traffic 09/12/02 1000 UTC – 09/13/02 1000 UTC
# of aircraft
LGA – ORD route envelope
Incrementally define Route and Decision Points
Fraction of
Normal Sector
Capacity
LGAORD
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Adaptive ATM
CIWS DomainAir Traffic 09/12/02 1000 UTC – 09/13/02 1000 UTC
# of aircraft
Departure Solution - RAPT
Fraction of
Normal Sector
Capacity
LGAORD
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Adaptive ATM
CIWS DomainAir Traffic 09/12/02 1000 UTC – 09/13/02 1000 UTC
# of aircraftDecision points (DPs) for Chicago arrival
As the flight progresses, Uncertainty is reduced
Fraction of
Normal Sector
Capacity
En Route Solution
LGAORD
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Adaptive ATM
CIWS DomainAir Traffic 09/12/02 1000 UTC – 09/13/02 1000 UTC
# of aircraft
Arrival SolutionTime-Based Metering
Fraction of
Normal Sector
Capacity
LGAORD
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Probabilistic Future Sector Demand and Capacity Graph
Sector 02
Time
Dem
and
Capacity
80%
50%
30%
16:00 17:00 18:0015:00
Probability of congestion > 75%Probability of congestion > 50%Probability of congestion < 50%
Impact of Weather Forecast Uncertainty
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Managing Congestion to an Acceptable Level of Risk
(Probability)Sector 02
Time
Dem
and
Capacity
80%
50%
30%
16:00 17:00 18:0015:00
Probability of congestion > 75%Probability of congestion > 50%Probability of congestion < 50%
Impact of Weather Forecast Uncertainty
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100%
50%
InitialCongestionForecast fortime T
Do nothing, wait
Partial resolution
Full resolution
DecisionPoint 1:T – 90 min
Traffic, WX situation evolves, forecasts change…
DecisionPoint 2:T – 60 min
Let it ride
Adjust
Let it ride
Adjust
Let it ride
Adjust
T
Congestion Resolution Decision Tree
Of the possible decision paths, which one reaches the congestionmanagement goal with the least operational impact?
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Time-Optimal Decision MakingSimulation
Start:
Set of predicted trajectories and corresponding congestion probabilities
CongestionTime, T
T-30 minT-60 minT-90 mint
Decision Point 1
Decision Point 2
Decision Point 3
PredictedCongestion
1.0
0.6
0.5
Path 0.6-1.0-0.5 mean cost:
E(J) = J12 + E(J21 | J12) + E(J31 | J21 | J12)
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.5
Lines represent Monte-Carloensembles of possible outcomes
J31
J23
J22
J21
J13
J11
J12
Jij = resolution cost distributionat decision point i of option j
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Scenario 2Enroute
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En Route Congestion
Uncertain weather forecasts indicate current and future loss of airspace capacity…
Uncertain traffic forecastsprovide airspace demand…
If demand exceeds capacity, delays will occur and safety may be compromised.
Given the uncertainty: When should air traffic be restricted?Which flights should be affected?How do NAS operators participate?
Air traffic control sectorCongestion Alerts
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Location of the Weather Matters--- Flow Impact
82
3
2
3
Probability
Capacity12 2016
82 3
2
3
Probability
Capacity4 2012
Case A
Case B
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Lincoln Lab Pilot Behavior Analysis and the WAF Altitude Field
90th pct. Echo top in 16X16 region
VIL coverage in 60X60 region
90th pct.16km echo top
DeltaZWAFAltitude
% VIL pixels in 60km region20 40 60
-10
0
10
DeltaZ
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Lead-Time
Developing Concept for Automated Tactical ATC Weather Avoidance
30 min. 25 min. 20 min.
30 minutes and higher lead time before a flight intersects weather problems: TFM automation uses weather forecasts to predict congestion, and produces initiatives to reduce volume around weather. ATC implements initiatives and resolves any near-term conflicts with other aircraft and weather.
20 – 25 minutes lead time: ATC automation responds to proactive requests via data link for reroutes around weather.
Up to 20 minutes lead time: ATC automation uses weather forecasts to predict aircraft to convective weather intersections and generates resolutions that avoid other aircraft and weather. Clearances are automatically distributed to data link equipped flights. Pilots have the option to request changes to the route, including requesting a route back through the weather.
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Example of NASA Weather ATM Integration Research
Movie loop shows one way to adjustto enroute storms
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1 Flow
Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
2 Flows
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
3 Flows
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
4 FlowsViolation of Sector Boundary Constraint!
Too Close!
Sector
Are 3 Routes through the Sector a Maximum?
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1. Airspace with Hazardous Weather Constraints
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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2. Define Critical Graph – connect closest points (B, T, a g)
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
2. Define Critical Graph – connect closest points
Assign cost using floor function | x |
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3. Search for Shortest Path Tree within Critical Graph
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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3. Search for Shortest Path Tree
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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4. Shortest B-T Path in Shortest Path Tree defines the mincut
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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5. Find maximum number of air lanes through the mincut
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Example of NASA Weather ATM Integration Research
Movie loop shows one way to adjustto enroute storms
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1 Flow
Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
2 Flows
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
3 Flows
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
4 FlowsViolation of Sector Boundary Constraint!
Too Close!
Sector
Are 3 Routes through the Sector a Maximum?
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1. Airspace with Hazardous Weather Constraints
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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2. Define Critical Graph – connect closest points (B, T, a g)
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
2. Define Critical Graph – connect closest points
Assign cost using floor function | x |
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3. Search for Shortest Path Tree within Critical Graph
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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3. Search for Shortest Path Tree
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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4. Shortest B-T Path in Shortest Path Tree defines the mincut
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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5. Find maximum number of air lanes through the mincut
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
Want 3 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Sorry, PBS-rules… Advisory sent out via SWIM to restrict traffic to RNP-3 and RNP-5 only
Mixed-RNP Demand
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
Want 3 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Sorry, PBS-rules… Advisory sent out via SWIM to restrict traffic to RNP-3 and RNP-5 only
√
√
Mixed-RNP Demand
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Unidirectional Flows
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Platooning of 1
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Platooning of 2
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Platooning of 3
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Platooning of N Flow-Based Route Planning
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Example of NASA Weather ATM Integration Research
Movie loop shows one way to adjustto enroute storms
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1 Flow
Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
2 Flows
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
3 Flows
Sector
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Weather Avoidance Algorithms for En Route Aircraft
4 FlowsViolation of Sector Boundary Constraint!
Too Close!
Sector
Are 3 Routes through the Sector a Maximum?
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1. Airspace with Hazardous Weather Constraints
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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2. Define Critical Graph – connect closest points (B, T, a g)
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
2. Define Critical Graph – connect closest points
Assign cost using floor function | x |
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3. Search for Shortest Path Tree within Critical Graph
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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3. Search for Shortest Path Tree
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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4. Shortest B-T Path in Shortest Path Tree defines the mincut
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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5. Find maximum number of air lanes through the mincut
Algorithm: Mincut (Deterministic)
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
2 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Maximum Number of Air Lanes at Bottleneck
3 Planned Air Lanes
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
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106
Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
Want 3 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Sorry, PBS-rules… Advisory sent out via SWIM to restrict traffic to RNP-3 and RNP-5 only
Mixed-RNP Demand
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Variations in the Size of the Gap (RNP Requirement)
Want 3 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Want 2 Air Lanes
Sorry, PBS-rules… Advisory sent out via SWIM to restrict traffic to RNP-3 and RNP-5 only
√
√
Mixed-RNP Demand
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Unidirectional Flows
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Platooning of 1
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Platooning of 2
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Platooning of 3
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Platooning of N Flow-Based Route Planning
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Scenario 3
New York Arrival and DepartureSuper Density
Operations
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Now to NextGen
Automated AssistedEvaluation & Exploratory(expanded time-horizons)
Reactive Pro-active
Integrated decision – support system
•Mitigation Today •Procedural•Manual process•Tendency to be reactive
Mid-Term – Improved Integration utilizing mature technology•Improved techniques to decision-making•Remains manual in coordination and implementation• Tendency to be more Pro-active
NextGen – New Integrated Technology •Technology assisted decision-making•Automated processes•Common information exchange
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Credits
• FAA/JPDO• Metron• MITRE• MIT/Lincoln Labs• NASA
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Integrated Traffic and Weather for Departure Planning
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Integrated Traffic and Weather for Departure Planning