Download - Future of Voice - Welcome to the workshop
Welcome to the Future of Voice Workshop
8th October 2013Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
[email protected]@martingeddes.com
Introduction
Voice is hot! But telephony is not....
Two years ago Predicting “peak telephony” Risk of voice over-supply OTT = threat WebRTC = “What?” Voice-in-apps as concept CEBP VoLTE = problems foreseen RCS = dead BYOD Skype, Facebook, G Voice
Now Volume & value declines Risk of voice under-demand OTT = partner / opportunity WebRTC = real, growing APIs & cloud telephony Hypervoice VoLTE = problems real RCS = undead BYOX Instagram, Snapchat, Kik
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Oct 2013
Source: Finnish regulator
Note: fixed calls getting shorter, mobile longer
Vodafone OpCos
Change in usage/sub Q2'12 vs Q2'13
Call Mins SMS
Germany 20% -9%UK -3% -7%Netherlands
3% -40%
Turkey 11% 15%Romania 3% 26%Spain 29% -27%Greece -4% -13%Portugal 3% 5%India3 7% 31%Egypt -2% -41%
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Where do you stand?
Short and brutal
Does traditional telephony have a future?
Long and fruitful
Questions
Who are you? What is your purpose in being here?
Are there any “burning issues” you have? Do you have any questions you want
answered today? Why do you locate yourself in that place?
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
What’s happening?
What Dean Bubley is working on.... WebRTC
Research reports & updates Vendor & operator private workshops; “Where’s the money?” Speaking engagements, webinars & white papers
Trends in legacy voice & SMS Video – where’s it going to fit? Telecom vendor value chain & dynamics
“Why did Oracle buy Acme?”, “Is open-source a big deal?” Telco/OTT, Telco-OTT & Telco vs. OTT WiFi & small cells Policy management & charging; MBB business models Regulatory – spectrum, Net Neutrality, Internet governance
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
What Martin Geddes is working on.... Cloud (voice) connectivity “supply chain management”
Retail broadband business model (esp. OTT partnership) Wholesale service delivery chain (e.g. IPX) Carrier-neutral cloud platforms, performance & hazard analysis
QoE measurement and cost management Multi-point network probing (“fMRI scans for networks”) Telco “lifestyle changes” – to lower cost/raise QoE “Collapsing complexity” in OSS/BSS
Regulatory – “fitness-for-purpose” Changing basis of broadband regulation away from “peak speeds” Network neutrality
Whacky obscure mathematical future network stuff Contention Management, RINA
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
What’s goingon for you?
Questions
What's moving: faster than you anticipated?
slower than your expectations?
What’s easier or harder? What’s surprised you?
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
What’s next?
Where are we? What’s the landscape?
1. Background trends What’s new & what’s real?
2. Hypervoice
3. WebRTC
4. “Other stuff”
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
What’s new in voice, video & messaging?
Oct 2013
Dull Shiny
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Lot of important stuff occurring, but....
Tariffs & plans
Regulation
HD Voice
Outsourcing
BYOD
Enterprise UC
SIP trunking
Cable voice
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Sexy, shiny stuff!
WebRTC
Hypervoice
Telco-OTT
New revenue
New apps
Cloud / APIs
NFV / SDN
Video
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Fragmentation of voice (& video) models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web
calls
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
Predictable irrationality
Endowment effect Optimism bias Confirmation bias Defence of belief systems
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Get in touch
We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more
Oct 2013
[email protected]/disruptivedeanwww.disruptive-analysis.comNewsletter
[email protected]/martingeddeswww.martingeddes.comNewsletter
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013