Download - GEO-5 Summary for Policy Makers
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GEO5Global Environment Outlook
Summary forPolicy Makers
atmosphere
environmental governancecritical thresholds
adaptive management and governance
chemicals
cooperation
consumptionmonitoring
human well-being
options
waste
wat
er
energy
energy biodiversitychange
oceans
information
policyaccess
data
sustainability land
drivers
earth system
participation
environmental goals
visioncapacity
accelerationnatural capital
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Frst publshed by the Unted Natons Envronment Programme n 2012
Copyrght 2012, Unted Natons Envronment Programme
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The desgnatons employed and the presentaton o materal n ths publcaton do
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GEO5
Global Environment Outlook
Summary for
Policy Makers
atmosphere
environmental governancecritical thresholds
adaptive management and governance
chemicals
cooperation
consumptionmonitoring
human well-being
options
w
aste
water
en
ergy
energy biodiversitychange
ocean
s
information
policy access
data
sustainabilityla
nd
drivers
earth system
participation
environmental goals
visioncapacity
accelerationnatural capital
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Wth ts core mandate o keepng the global envronment under
revew, UNEP coordnates ntegrated envronmental assessments,
whch nvolve extensve consultatons and partcpatory
processes. Four Global Envronment Outlook (GEO) assessment
reports have been produced, n 1997, 1999, 2002, and 2007.
The 25th sesson o UNEPs Governng Councl n Decson25/2: III requested the Executve Drector, through the
Programme o Work, to contnue to conduct a comprehensve,
ntegrated and scentcally credble global envronmental
assessment (GEO-5), avodng duplcaton and buldng on
on-gong assessment work, to support decson-makng
processes at all levels, n the lght o the contnung need or
up-to-date, scentcally credble, polcy-relevant normaton on
envronmental change worldwde, and ncludng the analyses
o cross-cuttng ssues and ndcator-based components. It was
urther approved by UNGAs 2nd Commttee (Economc and
Fnancal) resoluton (A/C.2/66/L.57).
As a sgncant contrbuton to the 2012 Unted Natons
Conerence on Sustanable Development (Ro+20), the th
Global Envronment Outlook bulds on prevous reports and
contnues to provde an analyss o the state, trends and outlook
o the global envronment. It ders rom prevous GEO reports
n ts emphass on nternatonally agreed goals and a sht rom
assessng problems to provdng possble solutons.
The GEO-5 assessment report has three dstnct, yet related parts:
Part 1 s an assessment o the state and trends o the global
envronment n relaton to key nternatonally agreed goals
such as Mllennum Development Goals (MDGs) agreed n 2000
and goals o varous multlateral envronmental agreements
(MEAs) based on natonal, regonal and global analyses and
datasets. It provdes an evaluaton o the gaps n achevng
nternatonally agreed goals and ther ndcatve mplcatons
or human well-beng.
Part 2 o the assessment prortzes a varyng number o
envronmental themes per regon and selected nternatonally
agreed goals under each theme through a consultatve process.
The regonal assessments ocus on dentyng polcy responses
that would help speed up the achevement o nternatonally
agreed goals. It has been observed that there are many polcesthat have been shown to work n more than one country, but
these polces need to be more wdely supported, adopted and
mplemented accordng to natonal condtons to speed up the
achevement o nternatonally agreed goals. The analyss s
presented usng case studes that llustrate the applcaton o
polces at a natonal or transboundary level wthn each regon
and presents the benets and drawbacks o mplementng the
polces and the enablng actors and barrers that enhance or
mpede ther uptake.
Lmted evdence o the potental or polcy transer to other
countres or other regons s documented, as oten there s
nsucent emprcal evdence to make categorcal statementson polcy success or transerablty.
Among the long lst o polcy responses ound to be eectve,
some hghly promsng approaches are descrbed n the
regonal chapters. Together, these orm a possble polcy
agenda that would support an nclusve green economy
approach and are worthy o closer analyss by governments
when examnng new polcy optons.
Part 3 dentes possble optons or acton to transton
towards sustanable development ncludng through ncreased
coordnaton, partcpaton and cooperaton requred tosupport the achevement o nternatonally agreed goals and
work towards sustanable development at the global level.
The development o GEO-5 nvolved extensve collaboraton
between UNEP and a mult-dscplnary network o experts, all
o whom made ther valuable tme and knowledge avalable to
the process n recognton o ts mportance.
For the rst tme, authors, revewers and members o three
specalzed groups were nomnated by governments and
other stakeholders. UNEP then ollowed a selecton process.
The ollowng three GEO-5 specalzed advsory bodes were
convened to support the assessment process:
TheGEO-5HighLevelIntergovernmentalAdvisoryPanel:
The Panel dented the nternatonally agreed goals
that underpn the assessment. The Panel also provded
gudance to authors n the dratng o ths Summary or
Polcy Makers (SPM).
TheScienceandPolicyAdvisoryBoard: The Board was
responsble or strengthenng the scentc credblty
and polcy relevance o the assessment by provdng
gudance throughout and undertakng an evaluaton o the
assessment process.
TheDataandIndicatorsWorkingGroup: The Groupprovded support to the assessment process on core data.
The SPM s based on and consstent wth the ndngs o the
GEO-5 assessment. The GEO-5 Summary or Polcy Makers was
negotated and endorsed at an ntergovernmental meetng rom
29 to 31 January 2012 n the Cty o Gwangju, Republc o Korea.
TheGEO-5assessmentprocess
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This Summary or Policy Makers highlights the ndings o the th
Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5) report and is prepared by the
UNEP Secretariat with:
Guidance from members of the GEO-5 High-level Intergovernmental
Advisory Panel
Hussen A. Al-Guned, Mohammed Sa Al-Kalban, Burcu Bursal,
Mantang Ca, Sandra De Carlo, Jorge Laguna Cels, Gulherme da Costa,Lana Bratasda, Raou Dabbas, Idunn Edhem, Prudence Galega,
Nlkanth Ghosh, Rosaro Gomez, Han Huskamp, Jos Lubbers,
John Mchael Matuszak, Samra Nateche, Km Th Thuy Ngoc, Van Ta Nguyen,
Jose Raael Almonte Perdomo, Majd Shae-Pour- Motlagh, Jang We,
Albert Wllams, Danel Zegerer
Technical inputs from the Coordinating Lead Authors
Ivar Baste, Ncola Dronn, Tom Evans, Maxwell Fnlayson, Kesha Garca,
Carol Hunsberger, Mara Ivanova, Jll Jaeger, Jenner Katerere, Peter Kng,
Bernce Lee, Marc Levy, Alexandra Morel, Frank Murray, Amr El-Sammak,
Begum Ozynayak, Laszlo Pnter, Walter Rast, Roy Watknson
and
all authors whose contrbuton n the GEO-5 man assessment report served
as a bass or the GEO-5 Summary or Polcy Makers
It was negotiated and endorsed on 31 January 2012 by:
The Intergovernmental Meetng on the th Global Envronment Outlook
Summary or Polcy Makers
Azerbaian, Belarus, Belze, Bhutan, Brazl, Burund, Camboda, Canada,
Chna, Colomba, Comoros, Cook Islands, Czech Republc,
Democratc Republc o Congo, Egypt, Ethopa, Germany, Georga, Ghana,
Gunea Bssau, Inda, Indonesa, Iran (Islamc Republc o), Iraq, Kenya,
Kyrgyzstan, Mexco, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Nger, Ngera, Norway,
Pakstan, Palau, Peru, Phlppnes, Poland, Republc o Korea, South Sudan,
Romana, Serba, Span, Sweden, Swtzerland, Thaland, Togo, Turkey, Uganda,
Ukrane, Unted Republc o Tanzana, Unted States o Amerca, Yemen
Palestne attended the meetng as an observer
The ollowng ntergovernmental organsaton (IGO)-the League o Arab States
also attended the meetng
The UNEP Secretariat included
Joseph Alcamo, Matthew Bllot, Ludgarde Coppens, Volodymyr Demkne,Lnda Dusquenoy, Sandor Frgyk, Peter Glruth, Tessa Goverse, Jason Jabbour,
Fatoumata Keta-Ouane, Masa Naga, Nck Nuttall, Brgtte Ohanga,
Young-Woo Park, Naln Sharma, Anna Stabrawa, Ron Wtt
Production team
Helen de Mattos, Neeyat Patel, Rccardo Pravetton (GRID-Arendal),
Audrey Rngler, Petter Sevaldsen (GRID-Arendal),
Janet Fernandez Skaalvk (GRID-Arendal), Bartholomew Ullsten
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS6
1.Criticalthresholds
The currently observed changes to the Earth System are
unprecedented n human hstory. Eorts to slow the
rate or extent o change ncludng enhanced resource
ecency and mtgaton measures have resulted n
moderate successes but have not succeeded n reversng
adverse envronmental changes. Nether the scope othese nor ther speed has abated n the past ve years.
As human pressures on the Earth System accelerate,
several crtcal global, regonal and local thresholds
are close or have been exceeded. Once these have
been passed, abrupt and possbly rreversble changes
to the le-support unctons o the planet are lkely
to occur, wth sgncant adverse mplcatons or
human well-beng. An example o an abrupt change at
a regonal scale s the collapse o reshwater lake and
estuary ecosystems due to eutrophcaton; an abruptand rreversble example s the accelerated meltng o
the Arctc ce-sheet, as well as glacal melt, due to an
amplcaton o global warmng (Fgure 1).
The mpacts o complex, non-lnear changes n the Earth
System are already havng serous consequences or
human well-beng such as:
multple and nteractng actors, ncludng droughts
combned wth soco-economc pressures, aect
human securty; ncreases o average temperature above threshold
levels n some places has led to sgncant human
health mpacts such as ncreased ncdences o malara;
ncreased requency and severty o clmatc events,
such as oods and droughts, to an unprecedented
level aect both natural assets and human securty;
acceleratng changes o temperature and sea level rse are
aectng human well-beng n some places. For example,
they aect the socal coheson o many communtes
ncludng ndgenous and local ones, and sea level rse
poses a threat to some natural assets and the oodsecurty o the small sland developng states; and
substantal bodversty loss and on-gong extncton
o speces are aectng the provson o ecosystem
-. -. -.
Change in annual mean surface air temperature, C
. . . . . . No dataSource: NASA GISS
Figure 1: Change in annual mean surace air temperature, 19602009
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 7
The lack o relable and consstent tme-seres data
on the state o the envronment s a major barrer to
ncreasng the eectveness o polces and programmes.
Addtonally, many o the most mportant drvers
o envronmental change or even ther mpacts are
not systematcally montored. All countres shouldundertake to montor and assess ther own envronment
and ntegrate socal, economc and envronmental
normaton to norm decson-makng processes. As
standardzed approaches to data collecton are needed,
nternatonal cooperaton and capacty buldng or
collectng data must be strengthened. Improvng access
to normaton s also essental.
2.Evidence-basedpolicymakingrequiresmore,reliabledata
Many sub-natonal, natonal and nternatonal
nstruments now n place are contrbutng to
envronmental mprovements. There s evdence,
however, o contnung deteroraton n many places
and or most o the global envronmental ssues
reported on n GEO-5. For such ssues as exposure
pathways and eects o chemcals, and the trends
n land degradaton a better understandng would
support better responses. For others, such as
reducng partculate matter (PM) concentratons n
the atmosphere, more consstent mplementaton o
exstng nstruments s needed.
Atmosphere
Some atmospherc ssues have been solved eectvely as
a result o a varety o mechansms and where successul
acton has been taken, the benets ar exceed the costs.
Sgncant progress has, or example, been made n
reachng the nternatonally agreed goal o the Montreal
Protocol to protect the stratospherc ozone (ozone n
the upper atmosphere) layer. A drastc reducton n both
the producton and use o ozone-depletng substances
(ODS) has been acheved, resultng n a 31 per cent
mprovement n ODS ndcators at md lattudes snce
1994, and the predcted avodance o 22 mllon cases o
cataract or people born between 1985 and 2100 n the
Unted States o Amerca alone.
For other ssues, such as the reducton o ndoor and
outdoor PM and emssons o sulphur and ntrogen
compounds, progress has been mxed. Tropospherc
ozone (ozone n the lower atmosphere) remans a
sgncant problem and s provng dcult to address.
3.Environmentaldeteriorationdemonstratesinternationallyagreedgoalshaveonlybeenpartiallyachieved
servces, such as, the collapse o a number o sheres
and the loss o speces used or medcnal purposes.
The prospect o mprovng human well-beng s
crtcally dependent on the capacty o ndvduals,
countres and the nternatonal communty to respond
to envronmental changes whch ncrease rsks and
reduce opportuntes or the advancement o human
well-beng, n partcular eorts to eradcate poverty
amongst poor and vulnerable populatons. Because o
the complextes o the Earth System, responses need
to ocus on the root causes, the underlyng drvers o
envronmental changes, rather than only the pressures
or symptoms.
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS8
HADGL
NOAA
NASA
JMA
0 = 19611990 global mean, C CO2 part per million
280
260
300
320
340
360
380
400
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Sources: Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (HADGL), NOAA NCDC,
NASA GISS, Japan Meteorological Agency
Sources: Scripps Institute of Oceanography, NOAA
Fish andseafood
Meat
GlobalPopulation
+%
+%
+%
Source: UNEP/FAO
Change, %
Figure 2: Trends in temperature change and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, 18502010
Figure 3: Change in global population and in meat,sh and seaood supplies, 19922007
In parts o Arca, Asa and Latn Amerca, where
urban PM levels reman ar n excess o nternatonal
gudelnes, the concern s hgh. Smlarly, the dust-haze
phenomenon n the Mddle East s o concern. Improved
publc normaton on local ar qualty could contrbute to
rasng awareness o ths ssue.
The nternatonally agreed goal o avodng the adverse
eect o clmate change s presentng the global
communty wth one o ts most serous challenges
(Fgure 2) that s threatenng overall developmentgoals. As progress n reducng the carbon ntensty o
consumpton and producton s beng outstrpped by
ncreased levels o consumpton, reachng the clmate
goal under the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on
Clmate Change (UNFCCC) o reducng global greenhouse
gas (GHG) emssons so as to hold the ncrease n global
average temperature below 2 C above pre-ndustral
levels wll requre not only the ullment o current
pledges but also transormatve change towards a low-
carbon global economy.
In addton, progress s necessary on preparng and
mplementng natonal plans o acton on clmate change,
ncludng natonally approprate mtgaton acton and
natonal adaptaton plans o acton. Complementary acton
to address short-lved clmate orcers black carbon,
methane and tropospherc ozone, whch are ar pollutants
that also warm the planet can cost-eectvely reduce
the rate o temperature ncrease n the near term whle
reducng rsks to human health and ood producton.
Land
The pressure on land resources has ncreased n
recent years. Economc growth has come at the
expense o natural resources and ecosystems, or
example, due to perverse ncentves, deorestaton
and orest degradaton alone wll lkely cost the global
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 9
economy more than the losses n the 2008 nancal
crss. Improvng land-resource and sustanable land
management systems to prevent land degradaton,
ncludng sol eroson, has been ncreasngly recognzed
as an mportant goal, and there are many examples o
eectve progress. Coordnated eorts n the Brazlan
Amazon have shown that nnovatve polces on orest
montorng, land tenure and law enorcement, together
wth consumer-drven ntatves, can have a sgncant
mpact on lowerng deorestaton rates.
Some orestry and agroorestry systems, as well
as eorts to reduce land converson to other uses,
oer examples that can result n the mantenance
and enhancement o terrestral carbon stocks and
contrbute to conservaton and the sustanable use
o bodversty. Approprate orest management could
nclude natural regeneraton o degraded orests and
reorestaton, regulatng the dverson o orest land or
non-orest purposes wth comprehensve mechansms
or compensatory aorestaton and the adopton o
agroorestry. Eorts to better understand ecosystem
servces provded by varous land uses, as well as the
valuaton o natural captal, are at an early stage o
development and should be strengthened.
Overall, however, the challenges are severe and
successes relatvely ew n number. The rate o orest
loss, partcularly n the tropcs, remans alarmngly hgh.
The burgeonng populaton, economc development
and global markets are mportant drvers o change that
collectvely ntensy pressure on land by rasng demands
or ood, lvestock eed, energy, and raw materals
(Fgure 3 on prevous page). Smultaneous growth n
demand s causng land-use converson, land degradaton,
sol eroson and pressure on protected areas. The need
to ncrease agrcultural productvty due, or nstance,
to populaton growth, and to compensate or the loss o
arable land due to urbanzaton, nrastructure buldng
and desertcaton, has to be weghed aganst potental
envronmental costs. Land-use decsons oten al to
recognze the non-market value o ecosystem servcesand overlook bophyscal lmts to productvty, ncludng
the addtonal stress on productve areas caused by
clmate change. Many nterventons ntended to protect
ecosystems have also aled to engage adequately wth
ndgenous, local communtes and the prvate sector, or
to take local values nto account. In addton, an ntegrated
approach to conservaton and development s not always
easly reconcled wth local land-use legslaton.
The potental to create more sustanable land
management systems nevertheless exsts. Land polcesrepresent some o the most actve areas o polcy
nnovaton, ncludng payment or ecosystem servces
(PES) and ntegrated place-based management.
For these to be extended, some decences need to
be addressed:
data and montorng are severely nadequate; and
clear, more tangble nternatonally agreed goals
or land are needed as most o those that exst are
mprecse and non-quantable.
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS10
Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Note: the term irrigation eciency is used to
express which percentage of irrigation water is
used eciently and which percentage is lost
Irrigation eciency
HighLow
Freshwater
The world s on track to reach the Mllennum
Development Goal (MDG) on access to sae drnkng
water, but not that o santaton 2.6 bllon people stll
lack access to basc santaton and some progress
has been made n meetng water ecency goals.
Despte the progress, there are concerns that the lmt
o sustanablty o water resources, both surace- and
ground-water, has already been reached or surpassed
n many regons, that demand o water contnues
to ncrease and that water-related stress on both
people and bodversty s escalatng rapdly. Global
water wthdrawals have trpled over the last 50 years;
aquers, watersheds and wetlands are ncreasngly at
rsk yet are oten poorly montored and managed. The
rate at whch global groundwater stocks are decreasng
more than doubled between 1960 and 2000. Today, 80
per cent o the worlds populaton lves n areas wth
hgh levels o threat to water securty, wth the most
severe threat category aectng 3.4 bllon people,
almost all n developng countres. By 2015, some 800
mllon people are expected stll to lack access to an
mproved water supply, even though mprovng the
drnkng water supply and santaton s stll a cost-
eectve way o reducng water-related dsease and
death. In many countres, data collecton, montorng
and assessment o hydrology, water avalablty and
water qualty, whch are crtcal to ntegrated water
resource management and sustanable development,
are lackng and must be mproved.
Water, energy, soco-economc development and
clmate change are undamentally lnked. For example,
tradtonal energy producton sources result n
ncreased GHG emssons and clmate change that
contrbute to water scarcty, extreme clmatc events
such as ood and droughts, sea-level rse, and loss
o glacal and polar sea ce. Responses to clmate
change, ncludng developng energy sources wth
lower carbon ootprnts, can also have mplcatons
or the water envronment. Hydropower producton
can contrbute to ragmentaton o rver systems, whle
the constructon o some solar-energy nrastructure
consumes sgncant quanttes o water, oten
n ard envronments already experencng water
scarcty. As water scarcty ncreases, some regons
wll be orced to rely more on water harvestng and
watershed management. Desalnaton may also make
a contrbuton but currently requres large amounts
o energy, nancal and human resources, as well as
techncal assstance or ts mplementaton.
There s a need to use water more ecently. Nnety-two
per cent o the total global water ootprnt s related to
agrculture. Irrgaton ecency and water reuse could
be ncreased by about a thrd smply by mplementng
exstng technology (Fgure 4). Preventon and reducton
Figure 4: Global irrigation efciencies, c. 2000
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 1
o aquatc polluton rom both pont and non-pont
sources are also vtal steps n mprovng water avalablty
or multple uses. Though sgncant progress has been
made on ntegrated water-management over the past 20
years, the overall pace o ncreasng pressures on water
supples and use needs to be matched by accelerated
mprovements n governance at all levels.
Oceans
A number o global, regonal and sub-regonal
conventons, protocols and agreements have been
establshed to protect the marne envronment
rom polluton. They also support an ntegrated and
sustanable use o marne and coastal resources as well
as ecosystem based water management.
Despte global agreements, there are contnung sgns
o degradaton. For example, the number o eutrophc
coastal areas has ncreased dramatcally snce 1990
at least 415 coastal areas have exhbted serous
eutrophcaton and only 13 o these are recoverng.
Instances o reported outbreaks o paralytc shellsh
posonng (PSP), one example o whch s the toxn
produced by algal blooms n eutrophc waters, have
ncreased rom ewer than 20 n 1970 to more than 100
n 2009. O the 12 seas surveyed between 2005 and
2007, the coasts o the East Asan Sea, North Pacc,
Southeast Pacc and Wder Carbbean contaned
the most marne ltter. In contrast, the Caspan,
Medterranean, and Red Seas had the least. Excessve
absorpton o CO2 rom the atmosphere s causng
acdcaton o the oceans whch s postulated to be a
major threat to coral ree communtes and shellsh.
Addtonal studes are needed, to better understand the
extent, dynamcs and consequences o ths process.
Sustanable management o coastal areas and ocean
resources, ncludng through marne protected areas,
requres natonal acton, eectve coordnaton and
cooperaton at all levels.
Biodiversity
Protected areas now cover nearly 13 per cent o the total
land area, wth ncreasng recognton o ndgenous
and local communty-managed areas. Concern remans,
however, because protected areas are oten solated
rom one another. Ths can be addressed by establshng
bologcal corrdors between protected areas. Less than
1.5 per cent o total marne area s currently protected,
whle the nternatonally agreed goal n the Conventon
on Bologcal Dverstys (CBD) Ach Bodversty Target s
10 per cent o coastal and marne areas by 2020.
Polces, regulatons and actons have been adopted
to mnmze the pressures on bodversty, ncludng
reducng habtat loss, land converson, polluton loads
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS12
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Index 1970=1.0
Global Living Planet Index
The Global Living Planet Index is based on the change in
size of 7 953 populations of 2 544 species of birds,mammals, amphibians, reptiles and sh, relative to 1970,
from around the globe. The shaded area on either side ofthe line shows 95 per cent condence intervals
Source: WWF
Figure 5: Global Living Planet Index, 19702007and the llegal trade n endangered speces. These
measures also encourage speces recovery, sustanable
harvestng, habtat restoraton and the management o
nvasve alen speces.
Nevertheless, substantal and on-gong losses o
speces contrbute to ecosystem deteroraton. Up
to two thrds o speces n some taxa are threatenedwth extncton; speces populatons are declnng,
snce 1970, vertebrate populatons have allen by 30
per cent (Fgure 5); and snce 1970 converson and
degradaton has resulted n declnes o 20 per cent
o some natural habtats. Clmate change wll have
proound mpacts on bodversty, partcularly n
combnaton wth other threats.
Habtat loss and degradaton, ncludng rom
unsustanable agrculture and nrastructure
development; unsustanable explotaton; pollutonand nvasve alen speces reman predomnant
threats to terrestral and aquatc bodversty. All
contrbute to a declne n ecosystem servces, whch
may lead to ncreasng ood nsecurty and endanger
poverty reducton and the mprovement n human
health and well-beng.
The CBD Ach Bodversty Targets and the entry nto
orce o the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benet
Sharng provde opportuntes to develop a concerted
global approach to reverse the declne o bodversty.
To acheve ths, t would be helpul to sharpen polcy
makers awareness o the contrbuton o bodversty
and ecosystem servces to human well-beng, as well asto urther ntegrate polces and nsttutonal responses.
These nclude ncentves or and eectve engagement
wth ndgenous and local communtes as well as the
prvate sector.
ChemicalsandWaste
The development o the chemcals ndustry has brought
many benets that underpn advances n agrculture
and ood producton, crop pest control, ndustral
manuacturng, sophstcated technology, medcneand electroncs. Around 248 000 chemcals are now
commercally avalable and the pace o ther producton
and use contnues to grow (Fgure 6).
Nonetheless, some chemcals pose rsks to the
envronment and human health because o ther ntrnsc
hazardous propertes. The negatve eects on human
health and the envronment, and consequently the cost
o nacton, are lkely to be substantal. Chemcals and
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 1
waste management are currently addressed through a
number o regonal and global multlateral envronmental
agreements, ncludng the Basel, Rotterdam and
Stockholm Conventons and, snce 2006, the Strategc
Approach to Internatonal Chemcals Management
(SAICM). Even so, more chemcals o global concern
need to be addressed by such agreements.
Greater urbanzaton has contrbuted to the generaton
o more waste, ncludng e-waste n general and more
hazardous waste rom ndustral and other actvtes.
The countres o the Organsaton o Economc Co-
operaton and Development (OECD) produced some
650 mllon tonnes o muncpal waste n 2007, growng
at around 0.50.7 per cent each year, o whch 515
per cent was e-waste. There are ndcatons that the
nal destnaton o most e-waste s the developng
world and that, at the global scale developng
countres, may generate twce as much e-waste asdeveloped countres by 2016.
Whle polces to manage wastes exst n many countres,
ther mplementaton has met wth mxed success,
and reportng o hazardous waste data has declned.
Problems o managng waste are set to grow wth
recyclng alone not beng a sucent soluton, and
exceed the capacty o countres to deal wth t. Waste
preventon, mnmzaton, reduce-reuse-recycle and
resource recovery all requre attenton.
Many developng countres are at rsk o temporary
regulatory vacuums where shts n the producton or use
o chemcals are out o step wth the mplementaton o
adequate control and management systems, ncludng
cleaner producton and the envronmentally sound
management o the wastes.
There s, however, an acute lack o data to ndcatewhether polces are eectve, where the problems are
most challengng and, perhaps more tellngly, where
problems may be mountng but have yet to be detected.
In many countres, the capacty, n partcular techncal
capacty ncludng nance, technology, nrastructure or
the envronmentally sound management o chemcals
and hazardous wastes, s lackng or nadequate. Ths s
o serous concern snce there s a sht n the producton
o chemcals rom developed to developng countres,
and the use o chemcals n developng countres s
growng rapdly. Due to a lack o data, lttle can be sadabout how well the nternatonally agreed goals n ths
area are beng met and how to mprove programmes and
polces to address these goals.
Emergng ssues, such as endocrne dsruptng
chemcals, plastc n the envronment, open burnng,
and the manuacture and use o nano-materals
and chemcals n products, requre acton to better
understand them and prevent harm to human health and
the envronment.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Sales US$ (billion)
China
USA
Japan
Germany
France
Brazil
Republic of
Korea
Italy
UK
India
Netherlands
Spain
Belgium
Mexico
Ireland
Canada
Russia Switzerland
Singapore Chile
Australia
Israel
Malaysia
Iran
Indonesia
Thailand
Saudi
Arabia
Argentina
Poland
Source: OECD 2010
Figure 6: Chemical sales by country, 2009
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS14
Index =
Population
Global fossil COemissions
GDP
Emissions embeddedin trade
International trade
Net emission transfersDeveloped to developingcountries
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
inter alia, the negatve aspects o populaton growth,
consumpton and producton, urbanzaton and
globalzaton (Fgure 7).
Oten these drvers combne and nteract. Concerns aboutthe eects o clmate change, or example, ncludng crop
vulnerablty and ood nsecurty, gave rse to clmate
polces that ncluded mandates to ncrease bouel
producton, such as ethanol and bo-desel.
Some drect and ndrect drvers can be controlled
through acton that brngs drect benets to human well-
beng. For example, ncreasng energy ecency to reduce
GHG emssons also reduces ar polluton and ts rsks to
human health, whle reducng consumer energy costs and
ncreasng energy securty.
Because o the rapd growth n drvers, the complexty
o ther patterns and dynamcs, and ther ablty to
generate unexpected mpacts, mproved eorts n
survellance and montorng the drvers may produce
tangble benets. When basc envronmental, socal and
economc data are avalable and ntegrated t becomes
easble to assess the possble envronmental mpacts o
drvers eectvely.
4.Shiftingthepolicyfocus
Figure 7: Growth in population, GDP, trade and CO2 emissions, 19902008
There are compellng reasons to consder polces and
programmes that ocus on the underlyng drvers that
contrbute to ncreased pressure on envronmental
condtons, rather than concentratng only on reducng
envronmental pressures or symptoms. Drvers nclude,
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 1
GEO-5s regonal assessments dented polcy
responses/nstruments based on best practce adopted
successully n one or more regons that would speed up
the achevement o nternatonally agreed goals nclude:
Freshwater
Integrated water resource management; conservaton
and sustanable use o wetlands; promoton o water-
use ecency; water meterng and volumetrc-based
tars mplemented at a natonal or sub-natonal level;
recognzng sae drnkng water and santaton as a basc
human rght/need; efuent charges.
Biodiversity
Market-based nstruments or ecosystem servces,
ncludng Payment or Ecosystems Servces (PES) andReducng Emssons rom Deorestaton and Forest
Degradaton (REDD+); ncreasng the extent o protected
areas; sustanable management o protected areas;
transboundary, bodversty and wldle corrdors;
communty-based partcpaton and management;
sustanable agrcultural practces.
Climate change
Removng perverse/envronmentally harmul subsdes,
especally on ossl uels; carbon taxes; orestry
ncentves or carbon sequestraton; emsson tradngschemes; clmate nsurance; capacty buldng and
nancng; clmate change preparedness and adaptaton
such as clmate proong nrastructure.
Land
Integrated watershed (catchment) management;
smart growth n ctes; protectng prme agrcultural
land and open space; no tll and ntegrated pest
management and/or organc agrculture; mproved
orest management; PES and REDD+; agroorestry and
slvo-pastoral practces.
Chemicals/waste
Regstraton o chemcals; extended producer responsblty;
product redesgn (desgn or the envronment); le cycle
analyss; reduce, reuse and recycle (3Rs) and cleaner
producton; natonal and regonal hazardous waste
treatment systems; control o napproprate export and
mport o hazardous chemcals and waste.
Energy
Increased nternatonal cooperaton n the area o
transer and applcaton o energy savng technologes;
promoton o energy ecency; ncreased use o
renewable energy; eed-n tars; restrcton on ossluels subsdes; low emsson zones wthn ctes;
research and development, especally on batteres and
other orms o energy storage.
Oceans and seas
Integrated coastal zone management (rdge-to-ree);
marne protected areas; economc nstruments such as
user ees.
Environmental governance
Mult-level/mult-stakeholder partcpaton; ncreasedntroducton o the prncple o subsdarty; governance
at local levels; polcy synergy and removal o conct;
strategc envronmental assessment; accountng systems
that value natural captal and ecosystem servces;
mproved access to normaton, publc partcpaton
and envronmental justce; capacty strengthenng o all
actors; mproved goal settng and montorng systems.
Each regon ound, however, that even were such
apparently successul polces more wdely mplemented,
there s lttle condence that some o the currentglobal envronmentally adverse trends would be
reversed nnovatve approaches are dentely needed.
Furthermore, alongsde the wse selecton o polces,
there s an ncreasng need to sht away rom dealng
wth the mpacts o envronmental degradaton and
tackle the underlyng drvers. Regulatory, market- and
normaton-based polces that actually change human
and corporate behavour can become true levers o
transormatve change. In addton, many o the polces
examned were successul, n part, due to the enablng
envronment or local context. It ollows, thereore, thatthe transer and replcaton o polces, although a
commonly observed approach, always requres careul
examnaton o the local context and a ull sustanablty
assessment beore proceedng.
5.Scalinguppromisingpolicies,practicesfromtheregions
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS16
GEO-5 dentes a selecton o nternatonally agreed
goals and targets that address the need to mprove
human well-beng throughout the world, whle protectng
and usng le-supportng envronmental processes.
Achevng these goals and targets or sustanable
development requres urther nnovatve responses at
all levels, as replcatng and up-scalng current polces
alone wll not suce. Exstng sustanablty-scenaro
studes show that both short-term polcy solutons
and long-term structural measures are needed to meet
establshed targets.
Responses at the local, natonal and nternatonal
level nteract and generate ncremental, structural
and transormatonal change. As there s no unversal
soluton to envronmental degradaton, a range o
talored responses s requred to reect the dversty
o regonal needs. In areas o common global concern,
however, coordnaton, partcpaton and cooperaton
are crtcal or jontly meetng nternatonally agreed
goals and targets, whle also addressng the capacty
dects n a range o countres.
In order to be eectve, acton at the sub-global level
can make use o the ollowng our strategc nsghts
derved rom recent scentc understandng o transton
processes n complex soco-ecologcal systems:
a compellng vson o sustanablty buldng on
goals and targets and normed by scence. Socety
at all levels needs to be engaged to dene vsons o
a sustanable uture and what s requred to get on to
the pathway o a successul transton;
reversng what s unsustanable the ntroducton o
nnovatve measures consstent wth a vson o and
pathway to sustanablty must be accompaned by
dentyng and redrectng or reversng polces that
are unsustanable;
applyng leverage a successul transton wll
requre a dverse array o measures that:
strengthen a sustanablty mndset n socety
through educaton and awareness rasng;
change the rules and ncentves to advance
sustanable practces; and
create eedback and make adjustments n the
physcal processes and structures o organzatons
to keep envronmental pressures at acceptable
levels;
Adaptve management and governance
governments and other enttes need mproved
capacty to manage complex transton processes
through contnuous montorng, learnng and course
correcton to reduce the costs o not meetng the
nternatonally agreed goals.
Delverng results requres a combnaton o technology
nvestment, governance and management measures,
together wth sustanable consumpton and producton
patterns. A low carbon and resource ecent green
economy n the context o sustanable development
and poverty eradcaton, wth adequate support or the
development o envronmental nnovaton, oers great
envronmental and economc opportuntes or the
preservaton o the envronment, the creaton o new
jobs, lowerng producton costs and the strengthenng
o compettveness. New measures wll only succeed
accompaned by a reversal or redrecton o polces that
have generated unsustanable outcomes. Transormatons
o such complexty requre a gradual but steady transton
process. Durng such a process, the mpact o responses
needs to be properly montored so that requred,
correctve measures can be taken to keep progress
towards nternatonally agreed goals and targets on
track. At the same tme, t s mportant to strengthen the
structural condtons provdng support or capacty
buldng and creatng an enablng envronment consstent
wth the vson o a sustanable world.
6.Innovativeresponsesanopportunityforcooperation
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 1
A results-based approach to advancng human well-
beng and sustanablty nvolves:
Framingenvironmentalgoalsandmonitoring
environmentaloutcomeswithinthecontextof
settingsustainabledevelopmentgoals
Buldng on the lessons o the MDGs s crtcal to the
possble development o any sustanable development
goals. Metrcs should track sustanablty progress,
strengthen accountablty and acltate learnng. Such
goals could also gude a publc and prvate sector
nvestment roadmap to a green and nclusve economy
to stmulate economc development and job creaton
by the sustanable use o ecosystems and natural
resources, as well as nrastructural nvestments and
technologes. New goals, related to the crtcal drvers
ncludng the consumpton and producton o ood,
energy and water, could be explored. Systematc
montorng and perodc revews o progress on the
agreed unversal goals would promote contnuous
mprovement and socal learnng as well as nsttutonal
and ndvdual accountablty.
Investinginenhancedcapacitiesandmechanisms
atlocal,nationalandinternationallevelstoachieve
sustainability,includingthroughagreeneconomy
inthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentand
povertyeradication
Ths may nvolve mechansms to crculate crtcal polcy
lessons, based on the prortes dented earler and
nputs rom governments and other stakeholders across
the world and strengthened accountablty through data
collecton and assessment ncludng nancal trackng
and regular revews. A stable polcy envronment,
partnershps and the development o an enablng
envronment are key to unleashng the creatvty o the
prvate sector, together wth nnovaton and enhanced
technologcal cooperaton through collaboratve research
and development and knowledge-sharng platorms.
Delverng results wll also requre strengthened natonal
capactes to develop, delver and mplement strateges
to combat envronmental degradaton.
Enhancingtheeectivenessofglobalinstitutions
tofullhumanneedswhileavoidingenvironmental
degradation
Across the world, enttes wthn the nternatonal
envronmental system need to transorm ther
operatonal approach by mprovng eorts to manstream
envronmental concerns nto the development o
economc polces, plans and programmes, delver
results at sub-regonal, regonal, natonal and local
levels, and mprove coordnaton and communcaton. A
Unted Natons system-wde strategy on envronmental
protecton, wthn the context o sustanable
development, could be explored to mprove the algnment
o ts broad range o nstruments, actvtes and capacty,
and support eorts by member states to mplement
the envronmental agenda, ncludng multlateral
envronmental agreements. Other enablng actors
are the enhanced delvery o scence-polcy capacty
development needs across the world, strengthened
montorng systems and data gatherng, as well as
the targeted communcaton o scentc ndngs to
varous audences. In the uture, the Intergovernmental
Platorm on Bodversty and Ecosystem Servces (IPBES)
s expected to make an mportant contrbuton to the
scence-polcy nterace. In addton, the synerges
process or the chemcals and waste conventons Basel,
Rotterdam and Stockholm provdes an opportunty to
enhance awareness rasng, knowledge transer, capacty
buldng and natonal mplementaton that should be
urther explored.
Consistenttimeseries,accessibledatacollection
andassessments
The valuaton o natural captal and ecosystem servces
and the development o evdence-drven envronmental
polces requre tmely, relable, consstent, accessble
and relevant ocal and envronmental data that are
regularly collected. Furthermore, t s mpossble to
judge the eectveness o polces or programmes
wthout regular and repeated data collecton and
assessment. The derved envronmental normaton
should be ntegrated wth socal and economc data or
possble ncluson n natonal accounts. Furthermore,
the normaton s needed to demonstrate to decson
makers and other stakeholders how budgets are
i
ii
iv
iii
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GEO-5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS18
allocated, as well as or better understandng and use.
Fnancal resources and capacty buldng are crtcal
or relable and consstent data collecton, ncludng
n developng countres. Development o techncal
capacty, as well as nsttutonal capacty to embed
regular data collecton, montorng and use wthn the
polcy and plannng process at the natonal level, s also
a hgh prorty.
Strengtheningenvironmentaleducationforand
raisingawarenessofsustainabilityissues
To acltate the mplementaton o nternatonally
agreed goals and objectves, acheve tangble results
at the natonal, regonal and nternatonal level, algn
envronmental polcy and programmes wth sustanable
development goals by strengthenng educaton or and
rasng awareness o sustanablty ssues as one o the
major drvng orces s essental.
Strengtheningaccesstoinformation,public
participationindecisionmakingandaccessto
justiceinenvironmentalmatters
To enhance engagement and develop capacty at
natonal and nternatonal levels, the substantve
nvolvement o cvl socety, the prvate sector and other
relevant actors n polcy-makng processes s crtcal.
The nternatonal communty and government at all
levels could mprove access to normaton, enhance
engagement o and develop capacty or stakeholders
to partcpate n decson makng and mprove access
to justce n envronmental matters n order to meet
envronmental and development challenges.
Notwthstandng the enormous challenges, movng
on to a pathway that leads to meetng nternatonally
agreed envronmental goals and targets s possble and
the transton s already under way. There are, today,
great opportuntes to scale up polces that can help
to reverse negatve envronmental trends and address
nequaltes and nadequate nsttutonal rameworks
wthn whch human socety currently operates. It s also
mperatve or the nternatonal communty to nvest
n structural solutons, rom undamental shts n the
values, desgn and structure o nsttutons to nnovatve
polcy rameworks, that wll help tackle the root causes,
rather than merely the symptoms, o envronmental
degradaton. Solutons are wthn reach, but urgent,
ambtous and cooperatve acton s mperatve to meet
nternatonally agreed goals and targets and to avod
rreversble changes to the le-support unctons o the
planet and urther escalatng economc, envronmental
and human well-beng costs.
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Figure1Changeinannualmeansurfaceairtemperature,
19602009
NASA GISS: http://data.gss.nasa.gov/gstemp/
Figure2:TrendsintemperaturechangeandatmosphericCO2
concentrations,18502010
a) Clmate Research Unt at the Unversty o East Angla(HADGL), NOAA NCDC, NASA GISS, Japan Meteorologcal Agency;
b) Scrpps Insttute o Oceanography, NOAA
Figure3:Changeinglobalpopulationandinmeat,shand
seafoodsupplies,19922007
UNEP (2011). Keeping Track of our Changing Environment:
from Rio to Rio+20 (19922012). Unted Natons Envronment
Programme, Narob
Figure4:Globalirrigationeciencies
Rohwer, J., Gerten, D. and Lucht, W. (2007). Development o
unctonal rrgaton types or mproved global crop modellng.Potsdam Insttute or Clmate Impact Research. PIK Report no. 104.
Figure5:LivingPlanetIndex,1970-2007
WWF (2010). Living Planet Report 2010. Biodiversity,
Biocapacity and Development. World Wde Fund For Nature
(WWF), Gland
Figure6:Chemicalsalesbycountry,2009
OECD (2010). Cutting Costs in Chemicals Management: How
OECD helps Governments and Industry. Organsaton or
Economc Co-operaton and Development, Pars
Figure7:Growthinpopulation,GDP,tradeandCO2emissions,
19902008
Peters, G.P., Mnx, J.C., Weber, C.L. and Edenhoer, O. (2011).
Growth n emsson transers va nternatonal trade rom 1990
to 2008. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 108(21), 89038
Referencesources
Photos
Page 7: Stockphoto/Krs Hanke
Page 9: Stockphoto/Vaara
Page 11: Stockphoto/Extreme-Photographer
Page 12: Stockphoto/Ron and Patty Thomas Photography
Page 14: Stockphoto/Su Mn-Hsuan
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United Nations Environment Programme
P.O. Box 30552 - 00100 Nairobi, Kenya
Tel.: +254 20 762 1234
Fax: +254 20 762 3927
e-mail: [email protected]
www.unep.org
e h Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-5) provides the scientic analysis as towhy the world needs an urgent switch in its developmental direction 20 years aer theRio Earth Summit of 1992.
GEO-5 underlines not only the severity of the environmental changes and challengesemerging across the globe but will also show that in far too many areas, environmentalchange is accelerating and pushing the planet towards tipping points.
As the UNs most authoritative assessment of the state, trends and outlook of the globalenvironment, the GEO-5 report and the world-wide consultative process underpinningits ndings oers governments and societies, on the eve of Rio+20, the scientic foresightthat can empower positive environmental change as a contribution to achievingsustainable development.
is Summary for Policy-Makers of GEO-5 provides a snapshot of the current state ofthe environment and the worlds performance in meeting key internationally agreed
goals. It also highlights promising approaches, responses and policy options able tosupport a transition towards an inclusive green economy and a sustainable century.
Achim Steiner,
UN Under-Secretary-General andExecutive Director, United Nations Environment Programme