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Geohazards Supersites
A partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental research
(1)University of Miami(2)ESA
CEOS action DI-09-01a_4
GEO task leader: Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2)
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Showcase at GEO plenary. Need data!
Outline:• What are “Geohazard Supersites”” • Benefits• Achievements/ Haiti examples• Challenges• Expectations from CEOS
Geohazards Supersites
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What are the Geohazard Supersites? - GEO initiative to better understand the geophysical processes causing geohazards (earthquakes
and volcanoes).
- Global partnership of scientists, satellite and in-situ data providers (multi-sensor InSAR, seismic, GPS, complete data sets!)
- Data can support national authorities and policy makers in risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
disaster mitigation
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Which are the Geohazard Supersites?
- Earthquake Supersites:
Tokyo, Los Angeles, Vancouver/Seattle, Istanbul- Volcano Supersites:
Hawaii, Mt. Etna, Campi Flegreii/Vesuvius- Event Supersites:
Haiti (Hispaniola),
Chile
Wenchuan
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30 year earthquake probability for Supersites:- Tokyo: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock,
(1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)
- Istanbul: 62% for M≥6.7 with ~3000 fatalities
- Southern California: 37% for shaking associated with a M≥7.5 (smaller for Los Angeles)
- Vancouver/Seattle: 10% for M≥9.0
~80% probability for M≥7.0 event with ≥3000 fatalities
in one of the Supersites in the next 30 years
Why is collaboration required?
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Benefits
new applications justifying the need for new satellite resources user requirements for advanced observation systems
(combination of satellite and ground)
• better science of geohazards• improve volcano and earthquake monitoring
• direct dialogue with users (smarter satellite tasking).• decade-long multi-satellite data readily available (digital world heritage for Earth Observation). • coordination of SAR observation systems (e.g. L-band for earthquake, X,C-band after earthquake)
For society:
For satellite operators:
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Space Agencies(CEOS)
In-situ data providers
JAXACSAESADLR…
Steering Group(Data Provider members)
Research Institutions(Data User members)
SupersiteOffice
(Unavco)
Science Community(Geohazard
CoP)----------
Governance Structure of Consortium
Point of contact(1 per Supersite)
Scientific Advisory Committee
Chair
Vice Chair
GEO task leadership
Legend:ElectionDay to day business
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Science Objectives
For a given Supersite:- interseismic deformation earthquake potential.- Daily to sub-daily SAR observations:
ALOS: 2 images/44 days
TSX: 2 images/11 days
RSAT-2: 2 images/24 days
CSM: 2 images/4 days
Envisat/ERS 2 images /35 days
Sentinel: 2 images/12 days
more satellites ultraprecise measurements (1 mm)
more chances for rapid interferograms
“virtual constellation” for ground deformationhigh-res optical for crustal earthquakes (Spot-5, Pleiades)
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• Magnitude 9.0 megathrust quake expected in next 300 years.• Image surface displacement associated with Episodic Slip and Tremor (ETS)
Science Objectives: (1) Vancouver/Seattle
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1923 Great Kanto earthquake
Interseismic deformation fault slip rates, earthquake potential
Envisat, processing by IREA, Naples
30 year earthquake probability: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock, (1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)
Science Objectives: (2) Tokyo
M7.9, 140,000 fatalities
RSAT-2 interferogram the day after Tokyo earthquake?
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InSAR, GPS and seismic new information on stress relaxation and transfer
Benefits:• better understand large continental earthquakes: first quake after 3000 years: isolated event? • promote data sharing in China (GPS, seismic, SAR).• capacity building through data access multiple PhD thesis.
Shen et al., 2009
Science Objectives: (3) Wenchuan
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Science Objectives: (4) Hawaii
SE flank time series
• Deformation due to arrival of new magma forecast activity
• Resolve flank deformation need daily SAR!
TerraSAR-X data from Supersites
1 Feb 2010 slow-slip event
P. Lundgren, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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• Cyberinfrastructure developed: single entry 'one-stop shop' supporting simultaneous large-scale data access
• White Paper version 2 (3 splinter sessions geohazards CoP )• Support from in-situ data provider• ESA data available for all Supersites (> 10,000 scenes,
natural laboratories initiated: complete ESA data sets for Japan, Western US)
• DLR data arriving• Radarsat-2 tasked• 12 Alos-PalSAR images for Haiti, Chile• Geological Surveys start using data (USGS, INGV)• Haiti earthquake: global scientific collaboration
Achievements
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ALOS-PalSAR data providedday after image acquisition
Provided critical information on rupture extend.
• Reassurance to population, rescue organizations•U Cornell civil engineers up’ed seismic safety standards.• Haiti meeting organized inMiami prior to UN donors Conference (relocation ofPort-au-Prince put to rest)
The Haiti example
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Septentrional fault:• GPS: ~13 mm/yr slip rate• Last earthquake about 1230 A.D. (8 m displacement accumulated)
magnitude 7.5-8 overdue!
• seismic hazard very high in Dominican Republic!• minimal seismic network (2 people)
•
USGS open file report
Next: Hispaniola Supersite
Hispaniola Seismic Hazard
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USGS open file report
Goal: to better estimate seismic hazard in Santiago, Dom. Rep. (2 million people)
How? Use multi-satellite PSInSAR to resolve strain accumulation along Septentrional fault.
Space data: TerraSAR-X, Alos, ERS2, Sentinel-1 need Cosmo-Skymed andRadarsat-2.
In-situ data: Coordination with planned GPS network
Results in 2 years!.
Expected signal, 1 cm/yr
Next: Hispaniola Supersite
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• ALOS data provision (L-band critical for event Supersites).
• Radarsat-1,2 data provision• Cosmo-Skymed unclear
no event Supersites established for Iceland volcano, New Zealand earthquake (ESA data available through “Natural Laboratory”)
Challenges
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Expectations from CEOS Plenary
• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies• Seek positive response to data request • Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR
through regular proposals) • Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon
as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).• Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San
Francisco, Izu-Oshima)
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Data request (White Paper Supplement)
As soon as possible
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.
Data request (White Paper Supplement)
1st semester 2011
2nd semester 2011
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Expectations from CEOS Plenary
• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies• Seek positive response to data request • Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR
through regular proposals) • Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon
as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).• Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San
Francisco, Izu-Oshima)
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Thank you!
http://supersites.earthobservations.org