AUGUST 15, 2017
GEORGE W ANNANDALE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
USACE Lakewood, Colorado
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
DAMS FOR PEOPLE
Dams ARE for People • Domestic Water Supply • Irrigation and Food• Energy • Flood Protection • Recreation • Fisheries • Industrial Water Supply
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
THE DAM DESIGNER’S NIGHTMARE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMSRELIABLE WATER SUPPLY
CURRENT FOCUS OF THE PROFESSION
Dam Safety
It is Important
BUT
Does it ensure SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT?
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
WHY DO WE BUILD DAMS?
ICOLD
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT?
“Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspirations of the presentwithout compromising the ability to meet those of the future”
Brundtland Commission Report: “Our Common Future (1987)”
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Focused on FAIRNESS BETWEEN GENERATIONS
Environmental Stabilization • A DESIRABLE CONSEQUENCE of Sustainable Development
• NOT THE OBJECTIVE of Sustainable Development
INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
RENEWABLE resources are used at a RATE that is smaller than its RATE of regeneration
EXHAUSTIBLE resources are used at a RATE that is smaller than the RATE of development of renewable substitutes, and
POLLUTION does not exceed the RATE by which the environment can assimilate it.
• Herman Daly
HOW TO SUSTAINABLY DEVELOP A RESOURCE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Acce
ssib
le F
resh
Gro
undw
ater
WATER RENEWABLE OR EXHAUSTIBLE?
7,972mi
864m
i
10m
i
All
Wat
er o
n Ea
rth
All R
iver
s
42m
i
EXHAUSTIBLE RENEWABLE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
GROUNDWATER OR RIVER WATER?POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Residence Time = 1,400 years Residence Time = 16 to 18 days
Daily Use of Water
RT >>>> Usage RT ~ Usage
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
GROUNDWATER FOOTPRINTGLOBAL FOOTPRINT = 3.5
Western MexicoHigh Plains
North Arabian
PersianUpper Ganges
North China Plain
27 9 48 20 545
Aquifer Area (AA)
Groundwater Footprint (GF)
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
RIVER WATERPREFERRED SOURCE OF FRESH WATER
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
LOW HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY RUN-OF-RIVER SYSTEMS
Daily Renewal
Variable Flow
Need for Run-of-River Storage to Supply during Low Flow Season
River Flow
Water Shortage
Water Demand
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITYMULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHTS AND WATER SUPPLY
11 Years
Multiple Year Storage Required
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
RUN-OF-RIVER AND CARRYOVER STORAGE REGIONS
( )
2 2
24 1v
crit
z cn γ
α
⋅=
⋅ −
RUN-OF-RIVER
CARRYOVER STORAGE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY NO STORAGE
' 1 vc zγα = + ⋅
HIGH VARIABILITY
LOW VARIABILITY
90%
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY HIGH VARIABILITY WITH STORAGE
' 1 vc zγα = + ⋅
HIGH VARIABILITYNO STORAGE
HIGH VARIABILITY
WITH STORAGE= 1 X MEAN ANNUAL FLOW
2 2
14
vz cγατ⋅
= −⋅
90%
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER SUPPLYTWO IMPORTANT VARIABLES
CHANGE IN MEAN ANNUAL RIVER FLOW
CHANGE IN HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGEMEAN ANNUAL FLOW INCREASE/DECREASE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASED HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITYGREATEST IMPACT ON RELIABILITY OF WATER SUPPLY
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGEHOW MUCH WOULD VARIABILITY INCREASE
Current Conditions
( )
2 2
24 1v
crit
z cn γ
α
⋅=
⋅ −
Assume 25% Increase in Variability
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Increased Hydrologic Variability due to Climate Change
Reduction in Yield
To Maintain Reliability of Water Supply • Hydrologically LARGE
Reservoir Storage
HOW TO PREPARE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE:DESIGN, BUILD AND MAINTAIN ROBUST INFRASTRUCTURE
2 2
14
vz cγατ⋅
= −⋅
Storage = 0.6MAF
1.0MAF
2.0MAF
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL POPULATION ANDDAM CONSTRUCTION
Population Gross Reservoir Volume
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION –THE STORAGE SPACE ENEMY
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
STORAGE LOSS TO SEDIMENTATION
Graf et al. Sedimentation and Sustainability
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
NET STORAGE IN US DAMS
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL STORAGE IN LARGE DAMS To
tal N
et V
olum
e (k
m3 )
TotalPer Capita
Per C
apita
Vol
ume
(m3 /p
erso
n)
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
LIMITED NUMBER OF DAM SITESCONSEQUENCE OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENT POLICY
Cum
ulat
ive
Yiel
d (1
06m
3 /yr)
US$/m3 yield
LOST TO SEDIMENTATION
DEMAND FOR WATER
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
FUTURE GENERATIONSCONSEQUENCE OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENT POLICY
Cum
ulat
ive
Yiel
d (1
06m
3 /yr)
US$/m3 yield
SEDIMENTATION
NEED MORE DAMS AT HIGHER COST
Cum
ulat
ive
Yiel
d (1
06m
3 /yr)
US$/m3 yield
INADEQUATE STORAGE SPACE
Cum
ulat
ive
Yiel
d (1
06m
3 /yr)
US$/m3 yield
NO STORAGE SPACE LEFT
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
MAKING THE RIGHT CHOICERESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
Manage amount of sediment generated by the catchment
Allow sediment inflows to pass through or around the reservoir
Remove sediment which accumulates in the reservoir
Upstream Management
Check Dams
Forestation
Sediment Routing
Sluicing
Density Current Venting
Bypass
Sediment Removal
Dredging Excavation Hydro-suction Pressure Flushing Drawdown Flushing
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
DUAL NATURE OF RESERVOIR STORAGE RENEWABLE OR EXHAUSTIBLE – A DELIBERATE CHOICE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS APPROACH
No Assignment of Cost due to Storage Loss
0 0
n nt t
tt t
NPV B d A C d= =
= ⋅ − − ⋅∑ ∑
1(1 )
dr
=+
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
PV(D) <<< D
CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS APPROACHCONVENTIONAL REASONING FOR IGNORING LOSS
0 0
n nt t
tt t
NPV B d A C d= =
= ⋅ − − ⋅∑ ∑
D
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CORRECT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS APPROACHHOTELLING PRINCIPLE
0 0
n nt t
tt t
NPV B d A C d D= =
= ⋅ − − ⋅ −∑ ∑PV = D
Hotelling: Value of an Exhaustible Resource increases with the discount rate (i.e. Discounted value does not change)
D
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMIC VIABILITYHOTELLING PRINCIPLE
Example Project
NPV
(Milli
on U
S$)
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
DESIGN AND OPERATIONPARADIGM SHIFT REQUIRED
Conventional Design Life Approach
Planning & Design Construction O&M Disposal
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
DESIGN AND OPERATIONNEW PARADIGM
Preferred Approach: Life-Cycle Management Approach
Planning & Design Construction
O&M
Refurbishment
Sediment Removal
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Gross Dam, Colorado
Key Messages
Sustainable Development
Create Intergenerational Equity
Environmental Conservation Desirable ConsequenceNot the Objective
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Gross Dam, Colorado
Key Messages
Preferred Water Source
Rivers have greatest potential for Sustainable Development
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 42
Thika Dam, Kenya
Key Message
Climate Change Impacts
Greater Need for Storage
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Key Messages
Net Loss of Reservoir Storage Space
Losing More Storage than Adding
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Karahnjukar Dam Spillway, Iceland
Key Messages Preserve Reservoir Storage
Existing ReservoirsFuture Reservoirs
Life Cycle Approach
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Strontia Springs Dam, Colorado
Key Messages Feasibility of Sustainable Development
Dual Nature of Storage Deliberate Choice by Designer Exhaustible – Let Fill with Sediment Renewable – Manage Sediment
Economic Analysis Implications
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ANTI-DAM SENTIMENT JEOPARDIZES OUR COMMON FUTURE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ENGINEERING LEADERSHIP
Intergenerational Equity Reliability of Water Supply Climate Change Create and Preserve Reservoir
Storage
Be the Voice of Reason
John BriscoeWorld Bank Engineer
Dams AdvocateDeceased 2014
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
REFERENCE
Annandale, G. 2013. Quenching the Thirst – Sustainable Water Supply and Climate Change, CreateSpace, Charleston, SC
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
REMOVE DAMS – CONSERVE WATER WATER CONSERVATION IN THE US
USGS Data
A “Band-Aid” with limits
1975
SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
WORLDWIDE WATER CONVERSATION NOT THE MAGIC BULLET